Brisk Wind Advisory 21, NWS Anchorage, AK

051 
FZAK52 PAFC 230048
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-231415-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 mb low 110 nm west of Saint Matthew Island remains nearly 
stationary, then moves to 120 nm west of Nunivak Island at 1002 
mb Mon afternoon. A 976 mb North Pacific low moves to 100 nm 
southwest of Sand Point Sun afternoon, then moves to 90 nm southwest
of Togiak at 976 mb Sun night. The low then moves into Southwest
Alaska Mon morning.

$$

PKZ150-231415-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt becoming SE after midnight. Seas 15 ft.
Rain and snow.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
14 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ155-231415-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. From the Shumagin Islands E, NE wind 15
kt becoming E 25 kt after midnight. Seas 12 ft. Snow with rain.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt early becoming W 25 kt. From the Shumagin 
Islands E, S wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-231415-
Bristol Bay-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S 10 kt after midnight.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt.
.WED...NW wind 15 kt.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ165-231415-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight. From
Port Moller E, NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ170-231415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind increasing to 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-231415-
Unalaska Bay-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 kt in the evening becoming NE 25 kt. Seas 3 ft 
building to 7 ft after midnight. Snow.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-231415-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 40 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-231415-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-231415-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-231415-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-231415-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 23 ft.

$$

PKZ177-231415-
Adak to Kiska-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ178-231415-
Kiska to Attu-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 36 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-231415-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 15 kt after midnight. 
Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-231415-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt becoming NE after midnight.
.SUN...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Snow and rain.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ181-231415-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-231415-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
348 PM AKST Sat Jan 22 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Heavy freezing
spray in the morning.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 19 ft.

$$

151 
FZAK52 PAFC 231227
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-240115-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 992 mb Kamchatka low moves over Saint Matthew Island at 1008 mb
Tue morning. A 977 mb North Pacific low 240 nm south of Dutch
Harbor exits to the Western Gulf at 997 mb Mon afternoon. A 979 
mb low develops 80 nm south of Sand Point Sun afternoon and 
crosses the Southwest Coast Mon morning.

$$

PKZ150-240115-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 14 ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 24 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...N wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-240115-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ160-240115-
Bristol Bay-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft. Rain.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.  Snow and rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas in ice free waters 1 foot.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 2 ft.

$$

PKZ165-240115-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming W after midnight. Seas 8 ft.
Freezing spray.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-240115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-240115-
Unalaska Bay-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
40 kt in the morning. Seas 12 ft subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ172-240115-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-240115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-240115-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ175-240115-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-240115-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ177-240115-
Adak to Kiska-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...E wind 40 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.THU...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ178-240115-
Kiska to Attu-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.THU...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ179-240115-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-240115-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Snow and rain.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 25 kt.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ181-240115-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 30 kt.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 20 kt.
.TUE...NW wind 15 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 kt.

$$

PKZ185-240115-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
327 AM AKST Sun Jan 23 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Heavy
freezing spray.
.MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
619 PM AKST Fri Jan 21 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Southern Alaska sits between a longwave trough stretching over
the Bering into the Northwest Pacific and a longwave ridge
extending northward from the Northeast Pacific into Southeast
Alaska. As a result, broad southerly flow continues to direct
several lows and shortwaves northward into the state along with
warm, moist air. The first shortwave stretches from Southwest
Alaska through the interior of Alaska this wave is producing light
snow across the northern Susitna Valley and northern Copper River
Basin. Additionally light snow is seen on radar across most of
Southwest Alaska with light rain from near King Salmon to Iliamna
as downsloping has warmed the atmosphere. The parent surface low
is spinning near the AKPen and is moving into the Bristol Bay
area. Rain and snow showers are seen on radar from Kodiak Island
north through Cook Inlet as well as rain showers near eastern
Prince William Sound due to the front moving inland. The MAT
valley winds have increased with gusts up near 40 mph and
temperatures into the 40s. Finally northerly flow with snow
showers spreads across most of the Bering with a few rain showers
across the Aleutians where temperatures are in the mid to upper
30s.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good synoptic agreement through the short term.
The timing and placement of upper-level shortwaves tracking
northward through the broad southerly flow is in good agreement
through Sunday, although some minor differences on timing of
shortwaves moving northward across the Gulf through the short term.
As we look towards late Sunday into Monday the next low and
shortwave show some uncertainty on strength and timing as it heads
towards Southern Alaska. The biggest challenge continues to be
the areal coverage of freezing precipitation for both Southwest
and Southcentral Alaska through Saturday. Another challenge is how
much precipitation and areal coverage of precipitation with each
weak shortwave moving across Southcentral Saturday and Sunday.
Currently shortwaves look very weak with weak forcing so
precipitation may be overdone a bit on some of the models
especially across interior valleys.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Ceilings remain predominantly VFR through the forecast
timeframe. Wind shear will continue until the Turnagain winds
bend into the airfield. Timing is somewhat uncertain, however
winds at the surface are expected to turn southeasterly sometime
by late this afternoon through the evening hours. Gusty
southeasterly winds are likely to continue through at least
Saturday morning and then winds should decrease and become
northerly by sometime Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An active pattern will continue for the next several days. Strong
southerly flow aloft is allowing for precipitation to persist
along the coast this evening, although it will be generally
light. Gusty winds along Turnagain Arm will occur through Saturday
morning with a tightening pressure gradient. Although these will
diminish thereafter, the same general pattern will continue and
thus winds will remain higher in this area. After a brief lull on
Saturday, another strong push of moisture will enter the Gulf
with slightly higher precipitation rates and stronger Turnagain
winds as today. Much of the precipitation will be confined to
coastal areas and stay all rain as temperatures in the low 40s are
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Monday)...

A warm and active pattern will continue to affect much of the
region with a variety of impacts ranging from rain and light
freezing rain to snow through much of the weekend into early next
week. To start off, a weakening front stemming from an upper level
low in the Bering will continue to work east through Saturday
morning as another weak low moves up along the Alaska Peninsula
into Bristol Bay. Warm air will continue to stream north out ahead
of the front, allowing for a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain and
snow across much of Bristol Bay and up into the Middle Kuskokwim
Valley. A transition zone will work east with time as colder air
briefly advects back in behind the front, with any mixed precip
becoming all snow by Saturday afternoon. It remains the
expectation for any ice accumulations to be very light, with only
a short window for freezing rain to occur before the cold air
ushering in changes everything over to all snow.

A brief pause in the active weather is expected for Sunday morning
as the low and associated snow band exit into the northern Alaska
Range and Susitna Valley, with dry and cooler low temperatures
ranging from the single digits over the Y-K Delta to the 20s over
the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay. Unfortunately, the pause
will be quite brief, with another North Pacific low and attendant
front expected to lift north across the Alaska Peninsula and into
Bristol Bay by Sunday evening, sending another shield of snow
along with another push of warmer air back into place from south
to north. Once again, there may be enough warm air moving in to
change snow over to rain, with some returning threat for a mix
with freezing rain. Current thinking is that areas near and east
of Dillingham will have the best potential to see a period of snow
mixing with or changing to rain and freezing rain, possibly
expanding north into portions of the Middle Kuskokwim Valley
through Monday. A Special Weather Statement highlighting both the
more immediate concerns for wintry mix and snow and for the
second system moving in on Sunday and Monday remains in effect
this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 2: Today
through Saturday)...

The general weather pattern will remain about the same over the
next several days, with a train of North Pacific lows moving north
around a longwave ridge centered over the Gulf. This will keep
most of the active weather over the eastern portions of the
forecast area, with multiple rounds of rain and snow moving across
the eastern Bering and Aleutians through Monday with each
subsequent low passage. The strongest of these lows will move
north into Bristol Bay by Monday morning, with a band of light
snow and gusty northerly winds up to gale force moving across the
Eastern Aleutians from Sunday afternoon to Monday morning. Benign
conditions will persist for most of the western parts of the
Bering region, with Arctic air remaining in place and supporting
periods of convective snow showers across the Western Aleutians
and Pribilofs through Monday.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska...A well developed Bristol Bay low moves to the
Northern Gulf of Alaska for Wednesday. Its front moves across the
Gulf by Wednesday. Forecast confidence is fair due to the low
track by Wednesday. Southerly gales ahead of the front become an
easterly gale force barrier jet along the North Gulf Coast for
Tuesday, and northwesterly gales along the Alaska Peninsula coast
for Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas to 22 feet from the Alaska
Peninsula across the western Gulf, subsiding Tuesday, and to 15
feet east of the Barren Islands, subsiding Wednesday.

Aleutians / Bering...A well-developed Bristol Bay low moves
inland late Monday. Northerly gales move across the Alaska
Peninsula by late Monday. Seas to 22 feet on the Pacific side of
the Alaska Peninsula, subsiding. Forecast confidence good through
the period. Areas of weak low pressure with gusty winds move
across the Bering through Wednesday. A well developed North
Pacific low intensifies as it approaches the Western Aleutians.
Widespread high end gales with areas of possible storm force winds
spread into the Central Aleutians and southern Bering through
Wednesday. Seas building to 18 feet on the Pacific side of the
Aleutians by Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The pattern will remain amplified during the extended period with
upper troughing extending across Southcentral and Southwest
Alaska on Tuesday while upper ridging builds across the eastern
Bering/Aleutians. The upper trough will then move eastward on
Wednesday and Thursday across Southwest and Southcentral as upper
ridging builds in the wake. Then, the upper level ridging will
extend across the eastern Bering/Aleutians, Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska by Friday. Upper level troughing will continue
to extend across the far western Bering/Aleutians during the
extended period. This means the extended period will start off
cold for Southwest Alaska and gradually become warmer as the
ridging builds across the area. Southcentral will remain cold for
a longer period of time as the ridge-axis is expected to remain
west of the area which will allow for northwesterly flow (cold air
advection) aloft. This pattern is also conducive to sunny skies
during the day and clear skies at night. This results in colder
overnight low temperatures across Southcentral due to radiational
cooling.

A weakening surface low is expected to move northeastward from
the Gulf into Yukon Territory on Tuesday and result in a chance of
light snow for Southcentral Alaska. The next chance for snow will
be on Thursday as a second low moves into the northern Gulf of
Alaska. Forecast confidence remains low at this time with snowfall
amounts due to significant differences in the placement of this
low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale: 130 132 139.
Heavy Freezing Spray: 179 185 412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AS
MARINE/LONG TERM...KZ/ED