Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
150 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Another active day for the region today. WAA on the nose of the LLJ
is providing enough lift for showers/storms over the southern CWA
this morning. SPC meso data suggests isolated severe will remain
possible through the early morning hours out ahead of northward
advecting EML. H7 temps pushing +12C will gradually advect north and
either kill the convection, or move it north of the CWA toward
daybreak. Once the warmer air aloft moves in, convection chances
will be nill until toward late afternoon. By late afternoon a strong
wave currently over Utah will begin to make its presence felt with
rapidly falling heights/temps aloft. At the sfc a cold front will be
sliding into the eastern CWA around max heating. MUCAPES of 3k j/kg
or higher combined with strong deep layer shear will result in
rapidly developing/rotating storms over the James valley by late
afternoon. However, a look at progged LL SRH values suggests the
highest potential for tornadic activity may be slightly north and
east of the ABR CWA, especially by early evening as sfc low advects
into the northeast corner of the CWA, thus pushing the main sfc warm
front north into ND and northern MN. Nonetheless, still fee there is
fair potential for severe wx over the eastern CWA as a cold front
trudges toward the east this afternoon/evening. A few supercells
early on will probably get forced into a line/line segments toward
evening as frontal forcing overtakes the region. By mid evening,
most of the activity will have exited the CWA as upper trof moves
mostly out of the area, and sfc front moves off into central MN.
Friday should be mainly dry but with perhaps isolated afternoon
showers under cool air aloft, especially out west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

With the passing of the cold front, much quieter weather expected
for the weekend with occasional gusty winds. More chances of
precipitation return Tuesday-Thursday with our next low moving in.

Starting off early Saturday, deterministic models indicate a high
pressure system moving in keeping the weather quiet. The surface low
pressure system will continue to occlude as it pushes further
north/northeast in Canada, along with its upper level counterparts.
At 500mb, the low will continue to spin to our north bringing
continuing shortwave energy across the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest through Sunday. Winds at this level will become more zonal
through Saturday with the low, before turning to more of a northwest
flow on Sunday. At 250mb, the negative tilted trough overhead will
continue to follow the low, putting most of the CWA in the southern
area of the trough. This trough will continue to push east slowly
through the weekend. Altogether, this will continue to bring
slightly cooler air to the area this weekend, making it a little
more comfortable feeling. Could see isolated chances of pops
Saturday/Sunday from the shortwave energy according to a few
ensembles/CAMs, while NBM keeps the precip out. GFS Bufkit indicates
pretty dry air at surface-800mb with slightly saturated air above,
therefore drops would most likely evaporate before hitting the
ground.

Clusters indicates a building ridge (models still differing in
intensity/amplitude) in the western parts of the U.S, behind this
trough on Sunday that will move into the area early next week,
turning our winds back out of the south/southwest, bringing a slight
warmup to our temperatures. Less confidence/timing midweek on how
fast the ridge moves east. In the extended forecast, GEFS indicates
another trough/low out in the Pacific that will push into our area
midweek, with a surface low swinging down from the northwest
bringing chances of precip Tuesday-Thursday.

Temperatures back down to around average for Saturday with highs in
the 60s and 70s across the CWA with lows in the mid-upper 40s. Few
degrees warmer for Sunday. With the ridge moving in, the southern
part of the CWA will see a warmup Monday into the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR ceilings will lower through the night, especially at ATY where
there is a chance of fog. Storms will roll north through the night
from south central SD, and may impact most locations. The best
chance is at MBG after around 09Z. Additional mid afternoon to early
evening storms will be possible at ABR and ATY, but given lower
confidence, will keep the mention of thunderstorms out for now.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...KF

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>