Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Aberdeen, SD

853 
WWUS53 KABR 120933
SVSABR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
333 AM MDT Thu May 12 2022

SDC031-041-121000-
/O.CON.KABR.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220512T1000Z/
Corson SD-Dewey SD-
333 AM MDT Thu May 12 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM MDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CORSON AND CENTRAL DEWEY COUNTIES...

At 332 AM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Little Moreau
Rec Area, or 22 miles northeast of Eagle Butte, moving northeast at
60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
  Glencross and Spring Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds. People outside
should move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4510 10068 4500 10063 4491 10114 4499 10114
      4499 10120 4505 10124 4517 10129 4549 10145
      4569 10104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0932Z 224DEG 53KT 4530 10105 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

KF

771 
WWUS53 KABR 120957
SVSABR

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
357 AM MDT Thu May 12 2022

SDC031-041-121007-
/O.EXP.KABR.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-220512T1000Z/
Corson SD-Dewey SD-
357 AM MDT Thu May 12 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CORSON AND
CENTRAL DEWEY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400 AM MDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4510 10068 4500 10063 4491 10114 4499 10114
      4499 10120 4505 10124 4517 10129 4549 10145
      4569 10104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0957Z 226DEG 55KT 4554 10069 

$$

TDK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
150 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Another active day for the region today. WAA on the nose of the LLJ
is providing enough lift for showers/storms over the southern CWA
this morning. SPC meso data suggests isolated severe will remain
possible through the early morning hours out ahead of northward
advecting EML. H7 temps pushing +12C will gradually advect north and
either kill the convection, or move it north of the CWA toward
daybreak. Once the warmer air aloft moves in, convection chances
will be nill until toward late afternoon. By late afternoon a strong
wave currently over Utah will begin to make its presence felt with
rapidly falling heights/temps aloft. At the sfc a cold front will be
sliding into the eastern CWA around max heating. MUCAPES of 3k j/kg
or higher combined with strong deep layer shear will result in
rapidly developing/rotating storms over the James valley by late
afternoon. However, a look at progged LL SRH values suggests the
highest potential for tornadic activity may be slightly north and
east of the ABR CWA, especially by early evening as sfc low advects
into the northeast corner of the CWA, thus pushing the main sfc warm
front north into ND and northern MN. Nonetheless, still fee there is
fair potential for severe wx over the eastern CWA as a cold front
trudges toward the east this afternoon/evening. A few supercells
early on will probably get forced into a line/line segments toward
evening as frontal forcing overtakes the region. By mid evening,
most of the activity will have exited the CWA as upper trof moves
mostly out of the area, and sfc front moves off into central MN.
Friday should be mainly dry but with perhaps isolated afternoon
showers under cool air aloft, especially out west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

With the passing of the cold front, much quieter weather expected
for the weekend with occasional gusty winds. More chances of
precipitation return Tuesday-Thursday with our next low moving in.

Starting off early Saturday, deterministic models indicate a high
pressure system moving in keeping the weather quiet. The surface low
pressure system will continue to occlude as it pushes further
north/northeast in Canada, along with its upper level counterparts.
At 500mb, the low will continue to spin to our north bringing
continuing shortwave energy across the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest through Sunday. Winds at this level will become more zonal
through Saturday with the low, before turning to more of a northwest
flow on Sunday. At 250mb, the negative tilted trough overhead will
continue to follow the low, putting most of the CWA in the southern
area of the trough. This trough will continue to push east slowly
through the weekend. Altogether, this will continue to bring
slightly cooler air to the area this weekend, making it a little
more comfortable feeling. Could see isolated chances of pops
Saturday/Sunday from the shortwave energy according to a few
ensembles/CAMs, while NBM keeps the precip out. GFS Bufkit indicates
pretty dry air at surface-800mb with slightly saturated air above,
therefore drops would most likely evaporate before hitting the
ground.

Clusters indicates a building ridge (models still differing in
intensity/amplitude) in the western parts of the U.S, behind this
trough on Sunday that will move into the area early next week,
turning our winds back out of the south/southwest, bringing a slight
warmup to our temperatures. Less confidence/timing midweek on how
fast the ridge moves east. In the extended forecast, GEFS indicates
another trough/low out in the Pacific that will push into our area
midweek, with a surface low swinging down from the northwest
bringing chances of precip Tuesday-Thursday.

Temperatures back down to around average for Saturday with highs in
the 60s and 70s across the CWA with lows in the mid-upper 40s. Few
degrees warmer for Sunday. With the ridge moving in, the southern
part of the CWA will see a warmup Monday into the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR ceilings will lower through the night, especially at ATY where
there is a chance of fog. Storms will roll north through the night
from south central SD, and may impact most locations. The best
chance is at MBG after around 09Z. Additional mid afternoon to early
evening storms will be possible at ABR and ATY, but given lower
confidence, will keep the mention of thunderstorms out for now.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...KF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
831 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-051-130145-
Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Walworth-Edmunds-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-
Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Buffalo-
831 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022 /731 PM MDT Wed May 11 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota and
north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Overnight storms will also pose an isolated risk of severe weather,
with the highest chance of strong winds and hail being over north
central South Dakota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A few strong storms will be possible mid afternoon Thursday. Small
hail will be the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-130145-
Traverse-Big Stone-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Spink-Clark-Codington-
Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-
831 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few strong storms will be possible overnight. Small hail will be
the primary threat with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday from mid afternoon into
the early evening hours. All severe modes appear possible including
large hail, strong winds and isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

SDZ045-048-130145-
Jones-Lyman-
831 PM CDT Wed May 11 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
118 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

SDZ033-034-120645-
Stanley SD-Sully SD-
118 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Sully
and north central Stanley Counties through 145 AM CDT/1245 AM MDT/...

At 118 AM CDT/1218 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Chantier Creek Recreation Area, or 20 miles
northwest of Fort Pierre, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Mission Ridge around 1230 AM MDT.
  Little Bend Rec Area and Bush'S Landing around 135 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4476 10080 4477 10077 4476 10077 4477 10075
      4476 10074 4477 10072 4480 10073 4483 10070
      4483 10067 4477 10061 4476 10054 4480 10048
      4446 10058 4448 10082
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 186DEG 39KT 4456 10070

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
140 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

SDZ033-034-120700-
Stanley SD-Sully SD-
140 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Sully and
northwestern Stanley Counties through 200 AM CDT/100 AM MDT/...

At 140 AM CDT/1240 AM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles east of Sansarc to
near Okobojo Point Rec Area to near Sully Lake. Movement was north at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Sully Lake and Little Bend Rec Area around 150 AM CDT.
  Bush'S Landing around 155 AM CDT.
  Agar and Sutton Bay Rec Area around 200 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4476 10095 4478 10091 4478 10083 4476 10077
      4477 10075 4476 10073 4481 10072 4483 10069
      4477 10061 4476 10054 4486 10040 4490 10040
      4489 10005 4457 10016 4455 10034 4455 10052
      4452 10052 4447 10096 4475 10098
TIME...MOT...LOC 0640Z 191DEG 34KT 4455 10089 4463 10051 4464 10024

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

KF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
152 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

SDZ048-120715-
Lyman SD-
152 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Lyman County
through 215 AM CDT...

At 152 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Lyman, or 15 miles southeast of Presho, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Kennebec around 205 AM CDT.
  Lyman and Byre Lake around 210 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4370 9990 4369 9993 4371 10000 4394 9986
      4386 9955 4374 9964 4376 9964 4377 9966
      4374 9966 4373 9969 4375 9968 4376 9970
      4372 9972 4375 9974 4374 9976 4371 9975
      4371 9980 4369 9984 4370 9986 4367 9987
TIME...MOT...LOC 0652Z 209DEG 37KT 4374 9985

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

KF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
320 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

SDZ019-022-120845-
Hamlin SD-Clark SD-
320 AM CDT Thu May 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Hamlin and
southeastern Clark Counties through 345 AM CDT...

At 319 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bryant, or 15 miles north of Lake Thompson State Recreation Area,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Lake Norden, Hamlin Education Center, Kellerton Church and Hayti.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4454 9762 4457 9764 4479 9732 4455 9708
TIME...MOT...LOC 0819Z 236DEG 32KT 4454 9748

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
401 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW TIMBER LAKE        45.42N 101.09W
05/12/2022  M69 MPH          DEWEY              SD   MESONET

&&

KF