Wind Advisory 46, NWS Albuquerque, NM

487 
WWUS75 KABQ 080903
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
303 AM MDT Sun May 8 2022

NMZ202-205-206-208-210>216-221-223-224-226>229-081800-
/O.CON.KABQ.HW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220509T1200Z/
Chuska Mountains-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
Southwest Mountains-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez
Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-Northern Sangre
de Cristo Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East
Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-Sandia
and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood-Central Highlands-South
Central Highlands-South Central Mountains-Johnson and Bartlett
Mesas Including Raton Pass-Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast
Highlands-
303 AM MDT Sun May 8 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected today. Wind gusts up to 75 mph will be possible overnight 
  across the high peaks and east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo 
  Mountains.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, northwest, 
  and west central New Mexico.

* WHEN...Until 6 AM MDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees and power lines. 
  Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, especially 
  for high profile vehicles. Areas of blowing dust across the lower 
  elevations may reduce visibility to less than 3 miles at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take action to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and other loose or 
lightweight outdoor objects. Extremely hazardous driving conditions 
can be expected, especially for motorists in high profile vehicles 
who should consider delaying travel.

&&

$$

NMZ234-081800-
/O.EXA.KABQ.WI.Y.0046.220508T1800Z-220509T0300Z/
Quay County-
303 AM MDT Sun May 8 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Quay County.

* WHEN...From Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs may be blown down. Expect strong cross winds on area 
  roadways.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NMZ201-203-204-207-209-217>220-222-225-230>233-239>241-081800-
/O.CON.KABQ.WI.Y.0046.220508T1800Z-220509T0300Z/
Northwest Plateau-Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands-
West Central Highlands-San Francisco River Valley-Espanola Valley-
Santa Fe Metro Area-Middle Rio Grande Valley including the
Albuquerque Metro Area-Lower Rio Grande Valley-Estancia Valley-
Upper Tularosa Valley-Union County-Harding County-Eastern San
Miguel County-Guadalupe County-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest
Chaves County-San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
303 AM MDT Sun May 8 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central, 
  northeast, northwest, southeast, and west central New Mexico.

* WHEN...From Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs may be blown down. Expect strong cross winds on area 
  roadways. Areas of blowing dust may reduce visibility to less than 
  3 miles at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

34

952 
WWUS75 KABQ 081740
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1140 AM MDT Sun May 8 2022

NMZ231-232-234-090200-
/O.NEW.KABQ.HW.W.0019.220509T1500Z-220510T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.WI.Y.0046.220508T1800Z-220509T0300Z/
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Quay County-
1140 AM MDT Sun May 8 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with 
  gusts up to 50 mph expected. For the High Wind Warning, southwest 
  winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Quay County, Eastern San Miguel County and Harding County.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 9 PM MDT this evening. For the 
  High Wind Warning, from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take action to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and other loose or 
lightweight outdoor objects. Extremely hazardous driving conditions 
can be expected, especially for motorists in high profile vehicles 
who should consider delaying travel.

&&

$$

NMZ202-205-206-208-210>216-221-223-224-226>229-090200-
/O.EXT.KABQ.HW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220510T0200Z/
Chuska Mountains-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
Southwest Mountains-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez
Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-Northern Sangre
de Cristo Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East
Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-Sandia
and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood-Central Highlands-South
Central Highlands-South Central Mountains-Johnson and Bartlett
Mesas Including Raton Pass-Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast
Highlands-
1140 AM MDT Sun May 8 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected today. Localized higher gusts up to 75 mph will be 
  possible tonight over and just east of the Sangre de Cristo 
  mountains.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, northwest, 
  and west central New Mexico.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, 
  especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take action to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and other loose or 
lightweight outdoor objects. Extremely hazardous driving conditions 
can be expected, especially for motorists in high profile vehicles 
who should consider delaying travel.

&&

$$

NMZ201-203-204-207-209-217>220-222-225-230-233-239>241-090200-
/O.CON.KABQ.WI.Y.0046.220508T1800Z-220509T0300Z/
Northwest Plateau-Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands-
West Central Highlands-San Francisco River Valley-Espanola Valley-
Santa Fe Metro Area-Middle Rio Grande Valley including the
Albuquerque Metro Area-Lower Rio Grande Valley-Estancia Valley-
Upper Tularosa Valley-Union County-Guadalupe County-Eastern
Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-San Agustin Plains and
Adjacent Lowlands-
1140 AM MDT Sun May 8 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central, 
  northeast, northwest, southeast, and west central New Mexico.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs may be blown down. Expect strong cross winds on area 
  roadways.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing dust will be common with 
  reduced visibility down to 2 to 5 miles in some locations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Shoemake

638 
WWUS75 KABQ 090148
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
748 PM MDT Sun May 8 2022

NMZ231-232-234-090300-
/O.CON.KABQ.HW.W.0019.220509T1500Z-220510T0200Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.WI.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-220509T0300Z/
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Quay County-
748 PM MDT Sun May 8 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT 
MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with 
  gusts up to 50 mph expected. For the High Wind Warning, southwest 
  winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Quay County, Eastern San Miguel County and Harding County.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday. 
  For the Wind Advisory, until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs may be blown down. Expect strong cross winds on area 
  roadways. Areas of blowing dust may reduce visibility to less than 
  3 miles at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take action to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and other loose or 
lightweight outdoor objects. Extremely hazardous driving conditions 
can be expected, especially for motorists in high profile vehicles 
who should consider delaying travel.

&&

$$

NMZ202-205-206-208-210>216-221-223-224-226>229-090300-
/O.CON.KABQ.HW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220510T0200Z/
Chuska Mountains-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
Southwest Mountains-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez
Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-Northern Sangre
de Cristo Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East
Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-Sandia
and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood-Central Highlands-South
Central Highlands-South Central Mountains-Johnson and Bartlett
Mesas Including Raton Pass-Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast
Highlands-
748 PM MDT Sun May 8 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected today. Localized higher gusts up to 75 mph will be 
  possible tonight over and just east of the Sangre de Cristo 
  mountains.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, northwest, 
  and west central New Mexico.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees and power lines. 
  Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, especially 
  for high profile vehicles. Areas of blowing dust across the lower 
  elevations may reduce visibility to less than 3 miles at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take action to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and other loose or 
lightweight outdoor objects. Extremely hazardous driving conditions 
can be expected, especially for motorists in high profile vehicles 
who should consider delaying travel.

&&

$$

NMZ201-203-204-207-209-217>220-222-225-230-233-239>241-090300-
/O.CON.KABQ.WI.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-220509T0300Z/
Northwest Plateau-Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands-
West Central Highlands-San Francisco River Valley-Espanola Valley-
Santa Fe Metro Area-Middle Rio Grande Valley including the
Albuquerque Metro Area-Lower Rio Grande Valley-Estancia Valley-
Upper Tularosa Valley-Union County-Guadalupe County-Eastern
Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-San Agustin Plains and
Adjacent Lowlands-
748 PM MDT Sun May 8 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with 
  gusts up to 50 mph expected. For the High Wind Warning, southwest 
  winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central, 
  northeast, northwest, southeast, and west central New Mexico.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM MDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs may be blown down. Expect strong cross winds on area 
  roadways. Areas of blowing dust may reduce visibility to less than 
  3 miles at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing dust will be common with 
  reduced visibility down to 2 to 5 miles in some locations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

11

535 
WWUS75 KABQ 090242
NPWABQ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
842 PM MDT Sun May 8 2022

NMZ231-232-234-091100-
/O.EXP.KABQ.WI.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-220509T0300Z/
/O.CON.KABQ.HW.W.0019.220509T1500Z-220510T0200Z/
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Quay County-
842 PM MDT Sun May 8 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT 
MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Quay County, Eastern San Miguel County and Harding County.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs may be blown down. Expect strong cross winds on area 
  roadways. Areas of blowing dust may reduce visibility to less than 
  3 miles at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing dust will be common with 
  reduced visibility down to 2 to 5 miles in some locations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take action to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and other loose or 
lightweight outdoor objects. Extremely hazardous driving conditions 
can be expected, especially for motorists in high profile vehicles 
who should consider delaying travel.

&&

$$

NMZ222-225-230-233-239-240-091100-
/O.EXP.KABQ.WI.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-220509T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KABQ.WI.Y.0047.220509T1400Z-220510T0200Z/
Estancia Valley-Upper Tularosa Valley-Union County-Guadalupe
County-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
842 PM MDT Sun May 8 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Lincoln County, Estancia Valley, Upper Tularosa 
  Valley, Guadalupe County, Union County and Southwest Chaves County.

* WHEN...From 8 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs may be blown down. Expect strong cross winds on area 
  roadways. Areas of blowing dust may reduce visibility to less than 
  3 miles at times.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Areas of blowing dust will be common with 
  reduced visibility down to 2 to 5 miles in some locations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high 
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NMZ201-203-204-207-209-217>220-241-090345-
/O.EXP.KABQ.WI.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-220509T0300Z/
Northwest Plateau-Far Northwest Highlands-Northwest Highlands-
West Central Highlands-San Francisco River Valley-Espanola Valley-
Santa Fe Metro Area-Middle Rio Grande Valley including the
Albuquerque Metro Area-Lower Rio Grande Valley-San Agustin Plains
and Adjacent Lowlands-
842 PM MDT Sun May 8 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

Windy conditions will persist overnight, but will be below advisory 
threshold.

$$

NMZ202-205-206-208-210>216-221-223-224-226>229-091100-
/O.CON.KABQ.HW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220510T0200Z/
Chuska Mountains-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
Southwest Mountains-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-Jemez
Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-Northern Sangre
de Cristo Mountains-Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-East
Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-Sandia
and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood-Central Highlands-South
Central Highlands-South Central Mountains-Johnson and Bartlett
Mesas Including Raton Pass-Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast
Highlands-
842 PM MDT Sun May 8 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest to west winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 
  mph expected. Localized higher gusts up to 75 mph will be possible 
  tonight over and just east of the Sangre de Cristo mountains.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, northwest, 
  and west central New Mexico.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds may blow down trees and power lines. 
  Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, especially 
  for high profile vehicles. Areas of blowing dust across the lower 
  elevations may reduce visibility to less than 3 miles at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take action to secure trash cans, lawn furniture, and other loose or 
lightweight outdoor objects. Extremely hazardous driving conditions 
can be expected, especially for motorists in high profile vehicles 
who should consider delaying travel.

&&

$$

11

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Increasing southwest to westerly flow through the TAF period, along
with a deepening lee side trough, will result in strong and gusty
winds peaking Sunday afternoon. Gusts to between 40-50kts will be
common Sunday afternoon. An Airport Weather Warning at KABQ is
currently in effect through 02Z for gusts to 37kts and another
warning will likely be required Sunday afternoon/evening. Smoke from
nearby wildfires may briefly drop vsbys to MVFR at KSAF and KLVS, but
forecast confidence was too low to include in this TAF cycle. Areas
of blowing dust are likely across western NM Sunday afternoon and
will impact area terminals, but vsbys will also likely remain VFR.
Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...520 PM MDT Sat May 7 2022...
...HIGH WINDS RESULTING IN DANGEROUS AND EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY...

...A DANGEROUS, LONG DURATION AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER EVENT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...

.SYNOPSIS...
The bottom line is that the forecast is ON track for a dangerous
and prolonged fire weather event. Tonight winds will not decrease
much if any at all and humidity levels will not increase much
overnight. This means any fires could potentially grow overnight.
It also means that any residents near the Hermit's Peak/Calf
Canyon Fire, Cerro Pelado Fire and Bear Trap Fire need to be ready
to go if evacuation orders are made. These next several days are
not good days to do any outdoor work which may create a spark
igniting a fire. Sunday extremely critical fire weather conditions
are forecast for areas from Albuquerque to Raton eastward to
Santa Rosa and Tucumcari. This includes the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains and adjacent Highlands as well as the Sandia and Manzano
Mountains. There is a high chance of sustained winds of 30-50 mph
with gusts reaching 70 mph especially in the higher terrain and
mountain gaps. High wind gusts will also be expected over the Four
Corners, Continental Divide and Tusas Mountains. Winds decrease
some on Monday but not enough to even rule out the potential for
extreme fire weather conditions. Winds do look to decrease Tuesday
through Thursday in the coming week but again, red flag warnings
will likely be needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
Stout jet continues to feed inland off of the northeastern Pacific
waters. While the core of the jet remains north of the Four Corners,
it continues to bring increasing southwest winds aloft to NM.
Pressure heights have risen considerably with temperatures soaring
above average, and a few record highs may even be reached before this
evening. The warm temperatures are allowing for very deep vertical
mixing, and many locales will likely mix up to 500 mb before sunset,
so winds will continue to increase over the next couple of hours and
peak in the very late afternoon and early evening. Today’s crop of
wind advisories will expire early this evening in lower elevation
zones where strong winds should subside, but likely not fully
decouple.

As a pair of perturbations translate through the developing longwave
trough and eject into the Canadian Rockies, another upper low will
dive on their heels toward the OR coast tonight. This will keep the
southwesterlies aloft increasing overnight. The diurnal mixing trends
and developing mountain wave activity is reflected within projected
wind speeds at 700 mb, as they are advertised to reach 50 to 60 kt
along and downwind of many high terrain areas within NM tonight,
before briefly dropping slightly into Sunday and then surging up once
again Sunday night. Concerns for damaging wind gusts of 60 mph were
high enough to warrant an upgrade of the High Wind Watch to a Warning
that will be extended into Monday morning when the strongest speeds
aloft could occur.

Going into the daytime Sunday, another suite of wind advisories will
be needed surrounding the high wind warnings as a very deep lee-side
surface low bottoms out over eastern CO. Pressure heights do fall a
few decameters into Sunday, and daytime high temperatures will lower
a few degrees, but still remain 5 to 15 degrees above normal in most
zones.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
The upper level trough over the Pacific NW and Great Basin really
remains quasi-stationary with the trough itself becoming more
elongated over the weekend. This pushes a strong jet stream over the
Desert SW into New Mexico tonight and Sunday. It then persists over
New Mexico on Monday however part of the upper low begins to
retrograde back over the Pacific with 500mb height rises going into
Monday night and Tuesday. GFS/EC ensembles means are in pretty decent
agreement with this evolution so we are expecting winds to slack off
on Monday. Tuesday there is still enough of a 500mb height gradient
to support some higher winds which could then mix down to the surface
but the upper low becomes positioned over N California as a
anomalously strong upper level ridge develops downstream over the
Mississippi River valley. This pattern is resembles more of a summer
time monsoon pattern however there is no moisture tap from the
Pacific. The trough finally makes a negative tilt push out over the
Four Corners region on Thursday. After that the pattern becomes more
zonal so we might get a longer break in the gusty and high winds by
the end of the coming week.

While the forecast for the most part is dry as far as precipitation
chances go we do get some moisture return Tuesday night into
Wednesday over the eastern plains. Dewpoints rise into the 40s and
will support some 20-40 percent chances of showers and thunderstorms
on Wednesday. Dryline does retreat back far enough to allow for this
moisture return and then pushes back east as the trough to the west
swings into the 4 Corners region. GFS is more supportive of
convection during this time than the ECMWF but certainly a signal to
monitor in the coming days. Severe weather potential will be
borderline with CAPE maybe 1200 J/kg. Deep layer shear will be
increasing Wednesday night from 30kts to 40-50kts so it might be
enough out of phase with convection to limit the severe potential. As
it stands now...favored area for convection runs from Santa Rosa to
Tucumcari and Dalhart TX.

52/39

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...DANGEROUS AND LONG DURATION CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...

Winds continue to increase this afternoon, marking the onset of a
long duration critical to extreme fire weather pattern that will
persist well into next week. All areas of northern and central NM
will remain at risk of critical conditions through at least the
early evening with high terrain areas generally observing the
highest wind speeds (gusts of 45 to 55 mph). Areas along and just
downwind of the central mountain chain (FWZ 103 and 107) will
observe intermittent gusty conditions overnight along with possible
mountain wave activity and in addition to this wind threat, poor
humidity recoveries through Sunday morning are expected, therefore
the Red Flag Warning will persist through the night there.

Stronger winds are expected across all of northern and central NM on
Sunday with the higher terrain areas again expected to observe the
highest speeds (gusts of 50 to 60 mph). Despite temperatures cooling
just a few degrees, exceptionally low humidity will redevelop in the
afternoon with high Haines and volatile conditions that will yield
critical to extreme fire weather conditions, especially over the
northern mountains, northeast highlands down to the central
highlands. Surface/20ft level winds may subside Sunday evening, but
once again high terrain areas will succumb to a strengthening of
winds aloft, mountain wave activity and intermittent gusts.
Therefore the Red Flag Warning for FWZ103 and 107 will extend right
into Monday.

Only a subtle reduction in southwesterly winds is expected on
Monday, along with similar temperature and humidity trends to what
is expected on Sunday. Another day of high Haines indices (values of
5 to 6 over all of northern and central NM) and very unstable
conditions is also expected. Current Energy Release Component’s with
many fuel sources in the region are already soaring above 90 th
percentiles and many locations could reach historic levels by day’s
end Monday, the third day in a row of such persistent and abysmally
dry conditions.

Wind speeds are not projected to be nearly as strong on Tuesday as
the low dives into CA, but still gusty and exceeding traditional
critical thresholds. Winds will then likely increase again Wednesday
into Thursday as the low ejects into the northern plains, only to be
followed by another potent and progressive upper trough  into the
latter part of next week.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101-102-104>106-108-109.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Sunday for the following
zones... NMZ101-102-104>106-108-109.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for the following
zones... NMZ101-102-104>106-108-109.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ201>206-210-211-215-216-223-226-228-229.

High Wind Warning from 2 AM Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for the
following zones... NMZ202-205-206-208-210>216-221-223-224-226>229.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for the following zones...
NMZ103-107.

&&