Wind Advisory 24, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1157 AM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Low pressure system on approach will bring strong winds and decreased
cigs/vsbys during the TAF cycle. Deep layer mixing will send gusts
of 25 to 30 kts to the sfc this afternoon as winds aloft increase. As
the system progresses across the Desert Southwest, LLWS will affect
terminals across the eastern plains aft 29/09Z and before 29/14Z.
While VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the
day today, they will slowly deteriorate from western terminals
eastward by early Tuesday as the trough makes its way into the state.
Winds aloft will increase early Tuesday morning areawide, setting
the stage for gusty winds to prevail.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT Mon Mar 28 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
One last day of near record warmth will occur today. Southwest winds
will strengthen ahead of an approaching storm system with fire
weather concerns over eastern areas. Winds will strengthen further
late tonight into Tuesday with gusts from 50 to 60 mph possible
across south central and eastern areas. Critical fire weather
conditons may also return to the east Tuesday.  A series of
disturbances will cross from the west and northwest with rain
showers, snow showers, and at times thunderstorms Monday night
through the end of the week. Wetting precipitation will favor the
mountains, as well as lower elevations across the west and north. The
high terrain of the northern and western mountains may accumulate a
few to several inches of snow with the first round occurring tonight
through Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
As the ridge aloft shifts farther east today, attention will start
to focus upstream on a deep upper level low moving off the eastern
Pacific and toward coastal CA. This will send strengthening
southwesterly flow aloft into NM along with increasing mid level
moisture to western and central zones. A weak surface boundary
advanced into the northeast to east central plains earlier this
morning, but is washing out, and as the lee-side surface low deepens
this afternoon, the remnants of the surface boundary will be scoured
out eastward. The placement and orientation of the lee side surface
trough will present a tightening surface gradient, especially across
eastern NM zones today, and this should yield breezy to windy
conditions by late afternoon. The arrival of mid level moisture and
cloud cover will dampen vertical mixing some in western and central
zones, possibly limiting the peak winds there some, however eastern
zones should have less mid level cloud cover (until very late in the
afternoon) with better mixing and windier conditions anticipated.
The increasing mid level cloud cover and lowering pressure heights
will allow temperatures to cool a few degrees in western and central
zones. Still, several northern to northeastern and east central
zones will approach daily record highs this afternoon.

The upper low will cross into far southern NV tonight with the
southwesterly flow aloft increasing more over NM. Wind speeds at 700
mb are progged to reach 45 to 55 kt over much of southern and some
central areas of NM late tonight, and the previously issued High
Wind Watch for the Sacramento/Capitan mountains will hold to account
for this. The lee-side surface low and its stiff gradient left over
eastern NM will remain intact tonight, keeping all the plains windy
overnight, but likely below criteria for any wind statements until
the daytime Tuesday. Spotty precipitation will also start feeding
into western zones toward Tuesday morning.

During the late morning Tuesday, the low will move into AZ,
spreading more diffluent flow and consequently increased rain and
high elevation snow into western and north central NM. As the cold
pool aloft approaches, instability will increase with the potential
for a few thunderstorms carrying on into the afternoon as the low
fills in and crosses into western and central NM. Overall model QPF
has increased into Tuesday with high resolution convection-allowing
models (CAMS) pinpointing heavier footprints from thunderstorms.
While western and central zones deal with the increased
precipitation chances, the southwestern to south central mountains
will continue to be buffeted by strong to severe winds as the mid
level jet rounds the base of the low/trough. Deep mixing and a
continued stiff surface gradient over eastern zones will also bring
them into the high wind threat where a High Wind Watch remains in
effect.

52

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
As an upper level trough and Pacific cold front cross from the west
Tuesday evening, rain showers, thunderstorms, and snow showers will
continue to favor the central mountain chain westward and northeast
areas near the CO border. The focus for precipitation will then
shift to north central and eastern areas later Tuesday night as a
gusty backdoor cold front plunges southward into the state and
trailing shortwave energy moves overhead from the northwest. Total
snow amounts by sunrise Wednesday now look to reach as much as 8
inches on the high peaks of the northern mountains, with a few inches
(and locally higher amounts) across the remainder of the high
terrain as well. Many lower elevation locations will also accumulate
at least some rain Monday night through Tuesday night, with the
greatest amounts reaching near a quarter inch along the borders with
AZ and CO.

After a downtick in precipitation coverage and intensity Wednesday
morning, additional rain and snow accumulations are expected mainly
along and east of the central mountain chain Wednesday afternoon and
evening as another disturbance crosses northeast NM and sends
additional gusty cold fronts into the state. The Tusas and Sangre de
Cristo Mountains may accumulate a few more inches of snow, while
wetting precipitation of 0.10-0.30" favors lower elevations east
central and northeast. The tail end of a polar jet max will linger
over the area on Wednesday, enabling northwest and north winds to
remain strong, especially in the morning across the east and in the
afternoon central and west. The strongest northwest wind gusts may
reach 50 mph again across the western mountains, and from Farmington
to Clines Corners. High temperatures will remain cool Wednesday with
readings varying from a few to 15 degrees below normal.

There will be a break in the weather late Wednesday night and much of
Thursday as a ridge of high pressure briefly crosses enabling high
temperatures to climb near normal areawide. However, the chance for
precipitation will return late Thursday through Friday night as
another upper level trough crosses from the northwest with
associated (gusty) Pacific then backdoor cold fronts. Models vary on
how deep the trough will dig over New Mexico and how much moisture
it will have with it. At this time they National Blend of Models is
favoring areas along and north of I-40 for precipitation with the
potential for a few to several new inches of snow in the mountains.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After a tranquil and warmer than average weekend, the weather
conditions will start to change and deteriorate today into Tuesday.
An approaching upper level low will usher in stronger southwesterly
winds aloft today, and more-so into tonight and Tuesday.
Temperatures will begin to cool a few degrees in western and central
NM today as clouds increase, but readings will remain well above
seasonal averages. Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop
in these western and central zones, but in the eastern plains less
cloud cover, warmer temperatures and deeper vertical mixing should
yield stronger surface winds. In addition to the stronger winds,
very dry and unstable (high Haines indices) conditions will combine
to bring critical fire weather conditions over portions of west
central, central and eastern NM this afternoon. The primary concern
will be focused over the eastern plains where the duration and
spatial coverage of stronger winds will be greater, and a Red Flag
Warning remains in effect there.

The fast-moving trough of low pressure will move into western NM on
Tuesday, bringing cooler temperatures and rain and high elevation
snow showers (and even thunderstorms) to much of western and central
NM. Despite the cooler temperatures, readings will remain slightly
above normal in the eastern plains Tuesday afternoon with dry
conditions prevailing. Strong to severe winds will also develop over
eastern NM where a few hours of critical conditions are expected to
redevelop Tuesday afternoon.

The arrival of cooler air from another weather disturbance on
Wednesday should inhibit critical conditions from developing. The
progressive weather pattern will offer another disturbance to cross
northern NM Thursday night into early Friday, dragging another round
of precipitation to northern zones. Temperatures rebound back above
normal by the weekend with breezy to locally windy conditions that
could introduce some spotty critical conditions.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
the following zones... NMZ230>240.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ104-108.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for the following zones... NMZ104-108.

High Wind Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for
the following zones... NMZ226.

&&