Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
946 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022

.UPDATE...
Expanded Flood Watch for Flash Flooding to include the Jemez
Mountains, as well as the northern and southern Sangre de Cristos.
Also, extended the Watch until midnight. NAM, GFS, and HRRR all
depict a disturbance embedded in the periphery of the 500 mb ridge
tracking southward over the northwest mountains this afternoon and
evening. PWATs are a little under 1 inch closer to the CO border, so
left the Tusas Mountains out of the Watch, but isolated flash
flooding is still possible there.

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.PREV DISCUSSION...530 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Ridge of high pressure aloft sprawled from UT across NM and into OK.
Cold front continues to push south and wwd into central and srn NM.
Sct showers persisting over nrn and central NM to slowly diminish through
14Z with layered mid clouds thereafter. Mts occasionally obscured in
lcl MVFR cigs/vsbys in clouds and precipitation. Sct showers and
tstms developing over the nrn and wrn higher terrain to move slowly
and erratically into the valleys/plains by 21Z.

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.PREV DISCUSSION...215 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue for the
foreseeable future as will the threat for flash flooding, especially
on burn scars. With an area of high pressure stuck over the area,
these storm motions will be slow and erratic which will only
contribute to the flash flooding threat. Otherwise, temperatures will
be near normal for most except perhaps a few degrees above normal
across the eastern plains.

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.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Mostly scattered light rain showers are continuing as a cold front
plunges farther west and south into New Mexico early this morning.
The upper high center is forecast to meander from the Four Corners
region over New Mexico leading to some erratic and slow storm
motions today through Wednesday. Showers and storms are forecast to
redevelop over the northern and western high terrain this afternoon
then progress into the lower elevations later in the afternoon with
additional development possible along outflow boundaries. Models
suggest there will be a northerly outflow stretching from west to
east over central New Mexico early this evening with at least
isolated activity persisting after midnight tonight. Wednesday
appears to be a little less active with showers and storms focused
from the central mountain chain westward. High temperatures today
will be near to several degrees below normal then warm a few degrees
Wednesday.

At this time, will leave the existing Flood Watch as it is as
virtually any storm could produce heavy rain leading to flash
flooding.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected through the
long-term period as the H5 high that builds over the Four Corners
Wednesday becomes the dominant feature across the western CONUS.
Despite this strong high pressure over the area, there is no influx
of drier air to scour out the moisture. Thus, we'll be in recycle
mode for several days with very similar weather conditions each day.
Thunderstorms will first develop over the high terrain by mid-day
before becoming more scattered in coverage across central and western
NM through the evening hours with more isolated coverage across the
east. Thanks to the H5 high's presence, storm motions will be slow
and erratic, and these slow storm motions will only contribute to the
risk for flash flooding, especially on the burn scars.

15

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.FIRE WEATHER...
A large area of high pressure aloft will dominate New Mexico for the
foreseeable future. The high center will meander over New Mexico as
well as the Great Basin and southern Colorado, leading to slow and
erratic storm motions. Outflow boundaries will also result in
additional and erratic storm motions. Any storm at least for today
and Wednesday will be capable of locally heavy rain which could lead
to flash flooding. Moisture isn't going anywhere so look forward to
afternoon and evening showers and storms for the next 7 days. High
temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal. With the light
winds aloft, there will be areas of fair to poor ventilation over
northern and central New Mexico for the next 7 days.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ213>215-228-229.

Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones... NMZ211.

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