Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Albuquerque, NM

799 
WGUS75 KABQ 122023
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
223 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022

NMC043-122200-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0069.000000T0000Z-220712T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sandoval NM-
223 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CERRO PELADO BURN SCAR REMAINS IN 
EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL SANDOVAL 
COUNTY...

At 223 PM MDT, satellite estimates indicate thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain over the Cerro Pelado Burn Scar. Flash flooding is 
ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will impact Vallecitos Creek, 
Paliza Canyon, West Fork Borrego Canyon, Vallecitos de los Indios, 
and East Fork Trailhead. The debris flow can consist of rock, mud, 
vegetation and other loose materials.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms in and around the
         Cerro Pelado Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Satellite estimates.

IMPACT...Flooding of areas in and around the Cerro Pelado Burn
         Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Jemez Pueblo and Ponderosa.

This includes the following recreation areas...
	Jemez Falls Campground and Paliza Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Runoff from rainfall will cause elevated water levels within 
vulnerable drainages in and downstream of the Cerro Pelado burn area.

Do not camp along streams and rivers. Remain alert when hiking in 
steep, narrow canyons. Know where you are relative to low spots and 
drainages.



&&

LAT...LON 3587 10644 3586 10644 3578 10651 3577 10653
      3566 10656 3564 10661 3562 10673 3567 10672
      3574 10665 3577 10664 3583 10662 3581 10657
      3584 10651

FLASH FLOOD...SATELLITE INDICATED

$$

24

773 
WGUS75 KABQ 122151
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
351 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022

NMC043-122201-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0069.000000T0000Z-220712T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sandoval NM-
351 PM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CERRO PELADO BURN SCAR WILL EXPIRE AT 
4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST CENTRAL SANDOVAL COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1200 AM MDT Wednesday for a 
portion of north central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3587 10644 3586 10644 3578 10651 3577 10653
      3566 10656 3564 10661 3562 10673 3567 10672
      3574 10665 3577 10664 3583 10662 3581 10657
      3584 10651

$$

12

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
946 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022

.UPDATE...
Expanded Flood Watch for Flash Flooding to include the Jemez
Mountains, as well as the northern and southern Sangre de Cristos.
Also, extended the Watch until midnight. NAM, GFS, and HRRR all
depict a disturbance embedded in the periphery of the 500 mb ridge
tracking southward over the northwest mountains this afternoon and
evening. PWATs are a little under 1 inch closer to the CO border, so
left the Tusas Mountains out of the Watch, but isolated flash
flooding is still possible there.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...530 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Ridge of high pressure aloft sprawled from UT across NM and into OK.
Cold front continues to push south and wwd into central and srn NM.
Sct showers persisting over nrn and central NM to slowly diminish through
14Z with layered mid clouds thereafter. Mts occasionally obscured in
lcl MVFR cigs/vsbys in clouds and precipitation. Sct showers and
tstms developing over the nrn and wrn higher terrain to move slowly
and erratically into the valleys/plains by 21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...215 AM MDT Tue Jul 12 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue for the
foreseeable future as will the threat for flash flooding, especially
on burn scars. With an area of high pressure stuck over the area,
these storm motions will be slow and erratic which will only
contribute to the flash flooding threat. Otherwise, temperatures will
be near normal for most except perhaps a few degrees above normal
across the eastern plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
Mostly scattered light rain showers are continuing as a cold front
plunges farther west and south into New Mexico early this morning.
The upper high center is forecast to meander from the Four Corners
region over New Mexico leading to some erratic and slow storm
motions today through Wednesday. Showers and storms are forecast to
redevelop over the northern and western high terrain this afternoon
then progress into the lower elevations later in the afternoon with
additional development possible along outflow boundaries. Models
suggest there will be a northerly outflow stretching from west to
east over central New Mexico early this evening with at least
isolated activity persisting after midnight tonight. Wednesday
appears to be a little less active with showers and storms focused
from the central mountain chain westward. High temperatures today
will be near to several degrees below normal then warm a few degrees
Wednesday.

At this time, will leave the existing Flood Watch as it is as
virtually any storm could produce heavy rain leading to flash
flooding.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected through the
long-term period as the H5 high that builds over the Four Corners
Wednesday becomes the dominant feature across the western CONUS.
Despite this strong high pressure over the area, there is no influx
of drier air to scour out the moisture. Thus, we'll be in recycle
mode for several days with very similar weather conditions each day.
Thunderstorms will first develop over the high terrain by mid-day
before becoming more scattered in coverage across central and western
NM through the evening hours with more isolated coverage across the
east. Thanks to the H5 high's presence, storm motions will be slow
and erratic, and these slow storm motions will only contribute to the
risk for flash flooding, especially on the burn scars.

15

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large area of high pressure aloft will dominate New Mexico for the
foreseeable future. The high center will meander over New Mexico as
well as the Great Basin and southern Colorado, leading to slow and
erratic storm motions. Outflow boundaries will also result in
additional and erratic storm motions. Any storm at least for today
and Wednesday will be capable of locally heavy rain which could lead
to flash flooding. Moisture isn't going anywhere so look forward to
afternoon and evening showers and storms for the next 7 days. High
temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal. With the light
winds aloft, there will be areas of fair to poor ventilation over
northern and central New Mexico for the next 7 days.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ213>215-228-229.

Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones... NMZ211.

&&