Flash Flood Warning 202, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
216 PM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

A brief lull from the monsoon pattern across eastern and central New
Mexico is expected into this weekend. However, the thunderstorm
potential across western New Mexico will remain the main headliner of
the forecast. The Black and Bear Trap burn scars will be an area of
concern in particular when in comes to potential flash flooding.
Otherwise, a return to higher thunderstorm coverage is possible
across the remainder of New Mexico into next week as the monsoon
pattern returns in full force.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

The 12Z PW of 0.74" at KABQ was slightly below normal as a drier,
more stable airmass slides west from the Great Plains. The bulk of
any storm activity this afternoon has been relegated to the southern
high terrain where locally heavy rainfall is still a threat. Near-
term guidance shows this activity dissipating quickly after sunset
with clearing in most areas. Min temps will be similar to last night
which is within a few degrees of normal for mid August.

Very little change is expected Saturday with a persistence pattern
in place across NM. Max temps will trend a couple degrees warmer
with most storms confined to areas west of the Cont Dvd. Min temps
Saturday night will trend a couple degrees warmer as well with weak
moisture advection on southerly winds.

42

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

High pressure will remain the dominate feature shifting the
thunderstorm activity further to the west on Sunday. Much of the
activity looks to remain across western New Mexico and Arizona.
However, as this high pressure continues to shift a bit
southeastward, we may see the monsoon pattern shift more of this
activity back towards the east yet again. In addition, a frontal
boundary still looks like a possibility across northern New Mexico
early next week. This will help provide a focus for thunderstorm
activity across northern New Mexico as it brings additional moisture
into the area as well. Otherwise, the models continue to get a bit
more interesting for next week as both the GFS and ECMWF both bring a
disturbance into southern and central Texas before potentially moving
into southern New Mexico. However, there remains a great deal of
uncertainty at this point with respect to that. Much higher
precipitation chances may be possible if that trend continues.
However, a stronger signal needs to be had before that significant of
a change can be made to the forecast. For now, a return of higher
thunderstorm coverage seems reasonable for next week due to the shift
in high pressure and the presence of a frontal boundary. Overall, the
potential for heavy rain leading to flash flooding will continue into
next week, especially across area burn scars.

PO

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An overall decrease in storm coverage will continue for most areas
east of the Continental Divide thru Monday. Temps will trend warmer
as well with stronger high pressure and less cloud cover. Moisture
will surge back into the area Tuesday as an easterly wave approaches
from TX and a couple backdoor cold fronts push into eastern NM. The
coverage of storms with locally heavy rain and potential burn scar
flash flooding will increase Tuesday thru the end of next week.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

The focus for SHRA/TS will be over southwest NM thru 03Z. Storms
will drift to the southwest over the Gila region. Any direct hits
will be capable of heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and frequent
lightning strikes. Quiet conditions are expected again tonight with
a few lingering mid level clouds and light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  92  64  92 /  10  10  10  20
Dulce...........................  54  86  54  88 /  20  20  20  40
Cuba............................  55  85  56  86 /  10  20  20  30
Gallup..........................  56  85  56  86 /  30  30  20  40
El Morro........................  53  78  53  81 /  40  30  20  50
Grants..........................  51  84  51  86 /  10  20  20  40
Quemado.........................  53  79  54  82 /  30  60  30  60
Magdalena.......................  57  80  57  83 /  20  20  10  30
Datil...........................  51  78  52  79 /  40  50  10  40
Reserve.........................  56  82  56  86 /  50  70  20  60
Glenwood........................  61  84  62  88 /  40  60  30  50
Chama...........................  51  79  51  81 /  20  30  10  40
Los Alamos......................  58  81  59  84 /  10  20  10  30
Pecos...........................  55  83  56  85 /  10  20  10  20
Cerro/Questa....................  50  81  49  84 /  20  40  10  40
Red River.......................  44  78  45  78 /  20  40  10  40
Angel Fire......................  42  76  43  78 /  20  20   5  30
Taos............................  52  85  53  87 /  20  20  10  30
Mora............................  52  80  52  82 /  20  20   5  30
Espanola........................  59  90  60  92 /  10  20  10  30
Santa Fe........................  58  85  59  85 /  10  20  10  30
Santa Fe Airport................  57  87  57  89 /  10  20   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  88  65  91 /   5  20   5  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  90  65  92 /   5  10   5  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  92  63  94 /   5  10   5  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  65  90  65  93 /   5  10   5  20
Belen...........................  62  92  62  94 /  10  10   5  10
Bernalillo......................  62  92  62  95 /   5  10  10  20
Bosque Farms....................  59  91  59  93 /   5  10   5  10
Corrales........................  64  93  64  94 /   5  10   5  20
Los Lunas.......................  60  91  60  93 /   5  10   5  20
Placitas........................  62  89  63  90 /   5  20  10  20
Rio Rancho......................  65  90  65  94 /   5  10   5  20
Socorro.........................  63  91  63  93 /  10  10   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  82  58  83 /   5  20   5  20
Tijeras.........................  60  86  60  87 /   5  10   5  20
Edgewood........................  56  83  57  87 /   5  10   5  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  85  51  88 /   5  10   5  10
Clines Corners..................  55  82  56  85 /   5  10   5  20
Mountainair.....................  56  83  57  85 /  10  10   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  57  84  58  85 /  10  10   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  62  86  63  88 /  10  20   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  53  79  54  79 /  10  20   0  20
Capulin.........................  55  85  56  87 /   5  10   0  10
Raton...........................  53  88  54  90 /   5  10   0  20
Springer........................  54  90  55  91 /   5  10   0  20
Las Vegas.......................  55  83  55  87 /   5  10   5  20
Clayton.........................  60  91  61  93 /   5   5   0   0
Roy.............................  58  87  59  89 /   5   5   0  10
Conchas.........................  64  93  64  96 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  61  89  61  92 /   5   5   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  66  96  66  99 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  62  92  65  94 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  64  94  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  67  94  66  95 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  69  96  69  97 /   5   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  61  88  62  91 /   5  10   0  10
Elk.............................  57  84  58  87 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
NMZ208.

&&