Flash Flood Warning 201, NWS Albuquerque, NM

955 
WGUS75 KABQ 122048
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
248 PM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022

NMC003-122215-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0201.000000T0000Z-220812T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Catron NM-
248 PM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BLACK BURN SCAR REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 415 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CATRON COUNTY...

At 248 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain over the Black Burn Scar have ended with light showers or 
sprinkles continuing. Between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain has fallen. 
Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

Excessive rainfall over the burn scar will impact Taylor Creek, 
Diamond Creek, South Diamond Creek and Hoyt Creek downstream to the 
East Fork Gila River as well as DD Bar Road, Links Road and Trails 
End Road. The debris flow can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and 
other loose materials.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding in and around the Black Burn Scar.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of areas in and around
         the Black Burn Scar.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of South Central Catron County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Runoff from rainfall will cause elevated water levels within 
vulnerable drainages in and downstream of the Black fire burn area.

Do not camp along streams and rivers. Remain alert when hiking in 
steep, narrow canyons. Know where you are relative to low spots and 
drainages.



&&

LAT...LON 3341 10803 3343 10800 3339 10800 3331 10800
      3328 10800 3320 10800 3320 10810 3320 10813
      3320 10816 3322 10817 3325 10819 3327 10818
      3329 10814 3334 10810 3341 10806

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

15

856 
WGUS75 KABQ 122212
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
412 PM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022

NMC003-122222-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0201.000000T0000Z-220812T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Catron NM-
412 PM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BLACK BURN SCAR WILL EXPIRE AT 415 PM 
MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH CENTRAL CATRON COUNTY...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT Friday for a 
portion of west central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3341 10803 3343 10800 3339 10800 3331 10800
      3328 10800 3320 10800 3320 10810 3320 10813
      3320 10816 3322 10817 3325 10819 3327 10818
      3329 10814 3334 10810 3341 10806

$$

15

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1134 AM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
The focus for SHRA/TS will be over southwest NM thru 03Z. Storms
will drift to the southwest over the Gila region. Any direct hits
will be capable of heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and frequent
lightning strikes. Quiet conditions are expected again tonight with
a few lingering mid level clouds and light winds.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MDT Fri Aug 12 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
The center of the strong high pressure area aloft is over north
central Colorado. It will be the main player in our weather over the
next several days. The high center will move slowly southeast into
the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this weekend, remain there for a
day, then shift farther southeast and weaken. Meanwhile, a stronger
high will be developing to our northwest early next week. The flow
aloft will be from south to north through Monday, then reverse and
move from north to south for most of next week. Both of these flows
will bring moisture into NM, directly from the south through next
Monday, then indirectly (sometimes called the reverse monsoon) from
the north thereafter. Showers and thunderstorms will favor the west
and central areas the next few days, then the east gets involved by
Tuesday, thanks to a back door cold front Monday night. Some models
have a slow-moving potent inverted trough impacting at least southern
NM Tuesday through Thursday. Widespread storms are expected from
Tuesday through Friday of next week based on this scenario.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
The center of a ~595 dam mid-level high pressure system is forecast
to migrate over the CO/KS border today, then remain at that
longitude while sinking a little closer to the OK/KS/CO border on
Saturday. This will generally steer storms toward the west and
northwest at speeds under 10 mph.  Water vapor imagery and forecast
models depict drier air wrapping around the high pressure system and
over northern, central and eastern parts of the forecast area with a
downtick in convective coverage commencing today.  PWATs will
generally fall to around 0.80" today, except for higher values up to
1.30" over the southwest mountains where locally heavy rainfall may
result in flash flooding. PWATs are forecast to fall closer to 1
inch over the southwest mountains on Saturday while holding roughly
steady elsewhere. With decreasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms high temperatures are forecast to climb today and
Saturday.  By Saturday afternoon highs should peak as much as 5
degrees above normal over the forecast area's eastern border, and as
much as 5 degrees below normal over the western border.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
The upper high pressure center will be just east of NM later this
weekend and early next week, setting up the traditional monsoon
pattern with direct moisture moving into NM from Mexico, mainly
impacting the western half of the CWA. The high will transition to
the northwest of NM by Tuesday of next week. This will allow storm
systems moving by to the north to drag their surface cold fronts
into eastern NM. At the same time, an inverted trough is expected to
at least impact southern NM from Tuesday through Thursday of next
week, with a good chance we get additional moisture in central and
northern NM as well. So, western and central areas will be the main
focus for precipitation through Monday, then the east joins in on
Tuesday and is active through the rest of the week. Heavy rain will
be likely each day of the forecast, leading to the potential for
flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A downtick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
commence today and persist through the weekend as drier air works
its way westward over the forecast area.  Precipitable water values
will linger above 1.25" over the West Central Highlands today where
the greatest threat of flash flooding will occur, and only around
0.80" elsewhere. West Central Highlands PWATs are forecast to fall
closer to 1" by Saturday afternoon, while PWATs remain roughly
steady elsewhere.  Warmer temperatures will accompany the drier air
with readings reaching a degree or so below normal over the western
border of the fire weather forecast area Sunday, and as much as 6
degrees above normal over the eastern border. A mid-level high
pressure system centered just east of the central and southern
Rockies this weekend is forecast to weaken during the first half of
the coming work week as an easterly wave tracks slowly westward
along NM's southern border while invigorating thunderstorm activity
over the state.  The wave will also draw moist backdoor cold fronts
into the state Monday night and potentially Tuesday night.  An
uptick in thunderstorm coverage is forecast over western and north
central NM Monday, then areawide Tuesday through Thursday.  PWATs
are forecast to climb near and above 1 inch areawide Wednesday and
Thursday when the risk of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding
may become widespread.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
NMZ208.

&&