Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
205 PM MST Sun Aug 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A low grade monsoon pattern from Tucson
eastward will continue through much of this week with the best
chances remaining over the higher elevations. Temperatures will
continue to warm through much of the week with Wednesday and
Thursday looking to be the hottest days. Triple digit temperatures
for the deserts are expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows clear skies
west of Tucson with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies from Tucson
eastward. A few showers and thunderstorms have popped up in the past
hour or so on the KEMX radar across the higher terrain of
Graham/Greenlee/Cochise Counties. With the increased moisture from
Tucson eastward today, expect continued isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms for these areas. As the convection is
diurnally driven, most of the isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity should diminish after sunset this evening.

The mid/upper level high placement will remain in an east/west axis
from the Lower Mississippi River valley into New Mexico over the
next few days, placing southeast Arizona on the western periphery of
the high. South to southeasterly flow will result in enough moisture
for a low grade monsoon pattern through Tuesday. Therefore, isolated
to lower end scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is expect
mostly south and east of Tucson, with Tucson on the western edge
through Monday. Thereafter, perhaps a brief reduction (break?) in
thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday before ramping back up to a
more typical monsoon pattern for late August next weekend.

Given elevated height/thickness values this week, triple digit heat
will return to the deserts including Tucson. A few spots in the
lower deserts to the west of Tucson may approach excessive heat
levels with highs 107-110 on the hottest days Wednesday and
Thursday. Thereafter, as moisture increases, temperatures will
moderate next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds aoa 8k-12k feet are expected this afternoon,
developing first over the higher elevations. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA
will be possible east of KTUS/KOLS this afternoon and is not
expected it impact the terminals today. SFC winds will remain around
10 knots or less for the period favoring the west to southwest this
afternoon and evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A modest increase in storm activity is expected early this week.
Best chances for isolated to scattered storms will remain over the
higher elevations and in areas south and east of Tucson through
Tuesday. Near normal temps will continue through Tuesday before
jumping above normal for Wednesday and Thursday. Triple digits are
expected for the lower deserts through at least Friday. 20-foot
winds will generally be less than 15 mph when not influenced by
storms and RH values are expected to remain above critical
thresholds.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Public...Lader
Aviation/Fire Weather...Guillet

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
624 PM MST Sun Aug 22 2021

AZZ507-513-230200-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-
624 PM MST Sun Aug 22 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Cochise
County through 700 PM MST...

At 623 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Tombstone, or 15 miles southeast of Benson, moving
northeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. David and Tombstone.

This includes the following highways...
 Route 80 between mile markers 302 and 315.
 Route 82 between mile markers 63 and 67.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 11016 3187 11028 3196 11003 3174 10995
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 244DEG 6KT 3182 11010

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH