Areal Flood Advisory 191, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
230 AM MST Mon Aug 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A low grade monsoon pattern from Tucson eastward will
continue through much of this week with the best chances remaining
over the higher elevations. Temperatures will continue to warm
through much of the week with Wednesday and Thursday looking to be
the hottest days. Triple digit temperatures for the deserts are
expected.

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.DISCUSSION...The ridge of high pressure over the south-central
United States will continue to strengthen and expand westward this
week. This will result in the flow becoming more southerly and
importing moisture into parts of SE AZ. This increase in moisture
will lead to isolated, mainly afternoon and evening, thunderstorms
the next few days. The thunderstorm activity will remain limited
with the best chances in the mountains from around Tucson south and
eastward into NM. Otherwise, the main weather story will be the heat
which will peak around Wednesday and Thursday. That said, an
elevated heat risk can be anticipated in the lower deserts
especially across Pima, southeast Pinal, and Graham counties where
hottest temperatures will occur.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 24/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft MSL will move north into the area roughly
east of a KFHU-KSAD line and then persist thru 23/18Z. Aft 23/18Z,
FEW-SCT clouds at 9k-13k ft MSL (locally BKN east of KTUS) thru the
remainder of the forecast period. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA east of a
KOLS-KTUS-KSOW line between 23/19Z and 24/05Z. SFC wind generally
less than 12 kts and favoring a SWLY/WLY direction in the
afternoon/early evening and variable in direction at other times.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the eastern half of southeast Arizona today, roughly east of
a line from Nogales, to Mount Lemmon to Hannagan Meadow. For the
rest of the work week, expect isolated to scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms in areas south and east of Tucson,
especially in the higher terrain. Temperatures will be around normal
today, warming to above normal levels Tuesday through Thursday when
triple digits will be possible across the lower deserts. 20-foot
winds will generally be less than 15 mph when not influenced by
thunderstorms and RH values are expected to remain above critical
thresholds.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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