Severe Thunderstorm Warning 205, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
302 PM MST Tue Oct 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will pass across Arizona today bringing rounds
of showers and storms to the area. Severe thunderstorms are
possible into the early evening hours. Generally dry weather with
seasonable temperatures into the weekend. A stronger and colder
weather system is shaping up for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A strong low is shearing northeastward across Arizona ahead of
the trough digging down the west coast. This has combined with
sufficient moisture for excessive convective potential and strong
shear environment for severe thunderstorms today. Best action is
north of Tucson, however mini super-cell activity has been noted
in northern Cochise county and is expected to spread through
Graham county for late afternoon and early evening hours.

The open wave will lift into Utah tonight with partial clearing
behind. As the trough continues to deepen down the west coast
with the significant southern branch split, high pressure will
build from central to northern Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. The
trough is expected to deliver a glancing blow to our corner of the
state over the weekend with breezy conditions and several degrees
of cooling, but probably not much in the way of significant precip
chances.

As the southern branch split continues, a much stronger and
colder system currently near southern Alaska could deliver actual
early season winter-like weather to portions of Arizona around the
middle of next week. That includes potential snow near mountain
peaks (mainly to our north) and the first freeze of the season in
colder eastern valleys (including Sulphur Springs Valley in
Cochise County).

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 10k-14k ft MSL and SCT-BKN layered clouds
above. Stronger scattered TSRA/SHRA mainly from Tucson eastward.
Local and brief MVFR conditions, mountaintop obscurations, and
wind gusts to 45 kts possible from stronger TSRA until 03Z.
Otherwise, SFC wind less than 12 kts and favoring a SWLY/WLY
direction into the early evening hours. Clearing overnight with
normal diurnal wind trends Wednesday. Aviation not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected through
tonight across southeast Arizona, beginning to clear from west to
east this evening. Generally dry conditions will follow for
into the weekend before a stronger and colder storm system next
week. Periods of breezy, southwesterly surface winds are expected
today and again Thursday/Friday with speeds of 10-15 mph gusting
up to 20-25 mph. Stronger winds possible early next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Meyer

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1241 PM MST Tue Oct 5 2021

AZZ507-508-511>513-052030-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Chiricahua Mountains including
Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet
including Douglas/Willcox-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including
Mount Graham-
1241 PM MST Tue Oct 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Cochise
County through 130 PM MST...

At 1240 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Dragoon, or 16 miles east of Benson, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Willcox, Dragoon, Pearce-Sunsites, Cochise and Texas Canyon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 311 and 342.
 Route 186 between mile markers 327 and 336.
 Route 191 between mile markers 54 and 66.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3189 10997 3194 11021 3227 11017 3229 10964
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 202DEG 16KT 3200 11004

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Meyer

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
114 PM MST TUE OCT 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     HAIL             16 SSW WILLCOX          32.04N 109.95W
10/05/2021  E0.70 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   PUBLIC

            WINDS TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZED HAIL.

&&

CWR