Blowing Dust Advisory 8, NWS Tucson, AZ

441 
WWUS75 KTWC 130547
NPWTWC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1047 PM MST Mon Jul 12 2021

AZZ501-502-504>506-130700-
/O.EXP.KTWC.DU.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-210713T0600Z/
Western Pima County-Tohono O'odham Nation-Tucson Metro Area-
South Central Pinal County-Southeast Pinal County-
Including the cities of Ajo, Organ Pipe Cactus N.M., Sells, 
Marana, and Picacho Peak State Park
1047 PM MST Mon Jul 12 2021

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM MST THIS EVENING...

The concern for blowing dust had ended. Thus the advisory has 
been cancelled.

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1156 AM MST Mon Jul 12 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
An active period of daily scattered showers and thunderstorms
during the next 7 days. High temperatures will be hot today and
Monday then cool to below normal levels later around the middle of
this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The previous forecast is on track...no update is needed.

It's rather hazy this morning across the Tucson metro area and
parts of SE AZ thanks to a thunderstorm outflow pushing dust,
originating from SW NM thunderstorms last night, west across SE
AZ. Satellite imagery showed a dying thunderstorm complex across
northern Sonora MX with outflow likely pushing north. Last nights
upper air plots placed mid- level high near Las Vegas with
continued NE flow over the area. PW values ranged from 1.25" to
1.75" this morning.

For today, these overnight outflow boundaries may interact with
each other and develop storms late this afternoon, mostly south
of Tucson. The other area of afternoon storm development will be
across the White mountains where these storms will propagate SW
under NE steering flow. Additional outflow interactions during the
evening hours mainly across eastern Pinal and eastern Pima
counties. Hazard concerns later this afternoon into this evening
will be strong to severe wind gusts, blowing dust, localized heavy
downpours leading to flash flooding concerns, especially for the
burns scars.

Tuesday: Models show a disturbance moving out of NW NM during
that day and across the forecast area under NE flow aloft. Expect
another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms with main
hazards being the same as today.

Wednesday: The upper high is suppressed to the southwest as a weak
upper level trof moves across eastern Arizona. This feature has
the potential to enhance thunderstorm activity, especially across
the eastern half of the forecast area with similar hazards of the
previous two days.

Thursday into next weekend: Chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms each day although areal coverage of storms may be
down versus the start of the week.

Temperatures today will be a couple degrees above normal then
cool down to below normal Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z.
ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA over the White Mountains this afternoon will
propagate mainly to the south through late this evening. Wind
gusts to 50 kts possible near the strongest TSRA. Otherwise,
surface winds less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms for the next
week for southeast Arizona. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary
concern with daily storms. Min RH values will generally be in the 15-
25 percent range for lower elevations through tomorrow with very
good overnight recoveries before increasing Tuesday onward. Surface
winds will be light and follow normal daily trends when not
influenced by storms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Public...Dang
Aviation...Hardin
Fire Weather....Dang

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