Dust Storm Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
212 PM MST Sun Jul 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...An active period of daily scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the next 7 days. High temperatures will be
hot today and Monday then cool to below normal levels later
around the middle of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a few buildups in the White
Mountains along with some cumulus over the Chiricahua and
Huachuca Mountains. The steering flow is out of the north as
evidenced by the anvil coming off the storms in the White
Mountains. Expect further development over the White Mountains
late this afternoon and evening with isolated storms in Cochise
County. Storms in northern Graham and Greenlee Counties will move
to the south late this afternoon and evening then perhaps more
southwestward as they get closer to the international border.
Tuscon looks to be on the western edge of storm development thanks
to the northerly steering flow. However can't rule out eastern
and southern parts of Tucson seeing thunderstorms if outflows move
through. The main threat from any storms that form will be strong
to severe winds. Because of this there is a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch in effect for Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise Counties until 9
PM. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible but won't be a
wide spread threat due to the speed the storms will be moving and
PWAT values just over an inch east of Tucson.

Monday the high will move a little further east over southern
Nevada putting southeast Arizona under northeasterly mid-level
flow. Hi-res models show a similar set up to today with storms
forming over the White Mountains then moving off the rim into the
lower deserts. The bulk of the activity should occur during the
late afternoon and evening. With the mid-level flow more
northeasterly Tucson will be under the gun again for storms.
Strong to severe wind gusts will be a hazard as the storms move
off the rim into the lower deserts. More moisture will also be in
place leading to a threat for heavy rainfall and possible flooding
as well. Especially over areas that received rainfall Saturday.

Tuesday through the end of the week southeast Arizona will stay
under a favorable pattern for there to be daily scattered showers
and thunderstorms. The high will slowly drift towards the four
corners with PWAT values ranging from 1.1-1.6 inches across the
CWA. Weak inverted troughs will also be rotating around the high
and likely enhancing activity at times. Overnight convection will
also be a possibility just hard to pinpoint which nights at this
time.

Temperatures today and Monday will be a couple degrees above
normal then cool down to below normal Wednesday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/00Z.
ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA over the White Mountains this afternoon will
propagate mainly to the south through late this evening. Wind
gusts to 50 kts possible near the strongest TSRA. Otherwise,
surface winds less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms for the next
week for southeast Arizona. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary
concern with daily storms. Min RH values will generally be in the 15-
25 percent range for lower elevations through tomorrow with very
good overnight recoveries before increasing Tuesday onward. Surface
winds will be light and follow normal daily trends when not
influenced by storms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
412 PM MST Sun Jul 11 2021

AZZ509-510-112345-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
412 PM MST Sun Jul 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GREENLEE COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM MST...

At 412 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles north of Morenci, or 17 miles north of Clifton, moving south at
25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and small hail will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clifton and Morenci.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MST for
southeastern Arizona.

LAT...LON 3336 10932 3334 10911 3303 10909 3306 10943
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 007DEG 21KT 3329 10923

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
444 PM MST Sun Jul 11 2021

AZZ509-510-120030-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford-White
Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow-
444 PM MST Sun Jul 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GREENLEE COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM MST...

At 444 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles north of Morenci, or 16 miles north of Clifton, moving
southwest at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea sized hail will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clifton and Morenci.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MST for
southeastern Arizona.

LAT...LON 3338 10936 3334 10907 3297 10905 3306 10947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 024DEG 10KT 3327 10925

AH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
651 PM MST Sun Jul 11 2021

AZZ508-512-120230-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
651 PM MST Sun Jul 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM MST...

At 651 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms around Bowie, or 20 miles east of Willcox, moving
south at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bowie.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MST for
southeastern Arizona.

LAT...LON 3240 10957 3235 10937 3208 10934 3212 10974
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 011DEG 7KT 3229 10948

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
725 PM MST Sun Jul 11 2021

AZZ508-512-120315-
Chiricahua Mountains including Chiricahua National Monument-Eastern
Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
725 PM MST Sun Jul 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM MST...

At 725 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Chiricahua National Monument, or 23 miles
southeast of Willcox, moving south at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chiricahua National Monument and Sunizona.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MST for
southeastern Arizona.

LAT...LON 3222 10960 3219 10934 3179 10933 3180 10970
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 001DEG 20KT 3210 10947

GL