Areal Flood Advisory 33, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
524 AM MST Wed Jul 14 2021

.UPDATE...Ran a quick update to short term forecast as showers
and isolated thunderstorms continue to develop over our area and
developed really quick up across the Phoenix metro area. The
Phoenix convection is associated with outflow pushing into from
the NW that may get down in our area later this morning. We've
seen some rainfall totals up to 1.50" in/around the Oracle area
where a flash flood warning is in effect.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...An active period of daily scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the next 7 days. High temperatures will be
below normal through the remainder of the week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today will be an atypical monsoon day as a weak
short wave moves across the northern half of the state. Scattered
thunderstorms were occurring across northern AZ this morning with
a few elevated thunderstorms occurring east of San Carlos across
northern Graham county. Additional elevated thunderstorms will be
developing this morning with scattered storms around into the
afternoon and evening hours. Storms will be slow movers, mainly
to the E/SE, and with anonymously high PW values across the area,
flash flooding with be a threat. Flash flood watch continues
across most of the area into this evening.

Upper levels get pretty mucked up Thursday and Friday before a
deeper easterly flow sets up over the weekend into early next
week. Thus daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

With an active pattern in place over the next 7 days, high
temperatures will be below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 10k-14k ft MSL and BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft
MSL thru 14/18Z, then SCT-BKN clouds at 8k-12k ft MSL til 15/05Z.
Slowly diminishing clouds aft 15/05Z. Scattered to numerous
SHRA/TSRA developing aft 14/19Z and persisting through the evening
hours tonight before diminishing. Wind gusts to 45 kts possible near
any TSRA along with mountain obscurations. Otherwise, SFC wind
generally less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There will be a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms across southeast Arizona the next week. Gusty
outflow winds will be the primary concern with the daily storms.
Min RH values will be in the 25-35 percent range at the lower
elevations, with higher values in the mountains. 20-foot winds
will generally be less than 15 mph and follow normal diurnal
trends when not influenced by thunderstorms.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Flash Flood Watch through this evening for AZZ501>507-509-511-
  513>515.

&&

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