Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Tucson, AZ

548 
WGUS75 KTWC 141519
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
819 AM MST Wed Jul 14 2021

AZC019-021-141630-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-210714T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-Pinal AZ-
819 AM MST Wed Jul 14 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 AM MST THIS 
MORNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIMA AND SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTIES...

At 819 AM MST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 
and 3 inches of rain have fallen with the highest amounts in the 
Oracle vicinity. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Catalina, Oro Valley, Oracle, Saddlebrooke, San Manuel, Campo 
  Bonito, Biosphere 2 and Oracle Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 11099 3261 11101 3271 11068 3244 11060
      3246 11094

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

GL

964 
WGUS75 KTWC 141626
FFSTWC

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
926 AM MST Wed Jul 14 2021

AZC019-021-141636-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-210714T1630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pima AZ-Pinal AZ-
926 AM MST Wed Jul 14 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 930 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR 
NORTHEASTERN PIMA AND SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is possible in lower reaches of 
the CDO and Sutherland Wash. A new Flash Flood Warning is in effect 
for these areas and extending west into Marana until 1230 PM MST.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MST Wednesday 
for a portion of Southeast Arizona.

LAT...LON 3258 11099 3261 11101 3271 11068 3244 11060
      3246 11094

$$

GL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
524 AM MST Wed Jul 14 2021

.UPDATE...Ran a quick update to short term forecast as showers
and isolated thunderstorms continue to develop over our area and
developed really quick up across the Phoenix metro area. The
Phoenix convection is associated with outflow pushing into from
the NW that may get down in our area later this morning. We've
seen some rainfall totals up to 1.50" in/around the Oracle area
where a flash flood warning is in effect.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...An active period of daily scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the next 7 days. High temperatures will be
below normal through the remainder of the week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today will be an atypical monsoon day as a weak
short wave moves across the northern half of the state. Scattered
thunderstorms were occurring across northern AZ this morning with
a few elevated thunderstorms occurring east of San Carlos across
northern Graham county. Additional elevated thunderstorms will be
developing this morning with scattered storms around into the
afternoon and evening hours. Storms will be slow movers, mainly
to the E/SE, and with anonymously high PW values across the area,
flash flooding with be a threat. Flash flood watch continues
across most of the area into this evening.

Upper levels get pretty mucked up Thursday and Friday before a
deeper easterly flow sets up over the weekend into early next
week. Thus daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

With an active pattern in place over the next 7 days, high
temperatures will be below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 10k-14k ft MSL and BKN-OVC clouds AOA 20k ft
MSL thru 14/18Z, then SCT-BKN clouds at 8k-12k ft MSL til 15/05Z.
Slowly diminishing clouds aft 15/05Z. Scattered to numerous
SHRA/TSRA developing aft 14/19Z and persisting through the evening
hours tonight before diminishing. Wind gusts to 45 kts possible near
any TSRA along with mountain obscurations. Otherwise, SFC wind
generally less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There will be a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms across southeast Arizona the next week. Gusty
outflow winds will be the primary concern with the daily storms.
Min RH values will be in the 25-35 percent range at the lower
elevations, with higher values in the mountains. 20-foot winds
will generally be less than 15 mph and follow normal diurnal
trends when not influenced by thunderstorms.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Flash Flood Watch through this evening for AZZ501>507-509-511-
  513>515.

&&

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