Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
150 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

.DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough is sliding across the Plains today. Higher
level cloud cover in association with the wave has restricted
heating across much of NE OK and far NW AR thru the day. Storms
are forming to the south where daytime heating can work with the
increasing synoptic scale lift from the approaching wave. Thus,
the higher PoPs from the late afternoon and into the evening will
be from southeast OK into western AR. Radar estimates have
indicated pockets of locally heavy rainfall with the storms over
central OK, and this potential will spread east into our area as
well. Gusty winds will also be possible, though potential for
severe gusts is pretty low. Some redevelopment of showers and
storms is possible later tonight across far eastern OK into
western AR, with the potential lingering into Friday morning. By
Friday afternoon, the wave should be to our east, with only a
slight chance of an afternoon shower or storm east of the I-49
corridor.

Friday will mark the beginning of the next stretch of hot and
humid weather that will persist into the first part of next week.
Heat headlines are likely for some areas by Saturday. A wave
passing by to our north over the weekend will bring some potential
for storms to NE OK and far NW AR. Rising mid level heights should
bring an end to storm chances for the beginning of the next work
week. Much uncertainty exists for the latter part of next week.
The latest iteration of the EC shows more ridging over the Plains
compared to previous runs, so who knows if we get a true break
from the upcoming heat wave toward the end of next week. FWIW, the
GFS brings a weak boundary in with some shower and storm chances.
We'll just have to wait and see.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  94  74  97 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   70  92  71  95 /  40  10   0   0
MLC   67  93  72  95 /  40   0   0   0
BVO   64  93  69  95 /   0   0   0  10
FYV   64  88  67  91 /  40  20   0   0
BYV   66  88  69  92 /  40  20   0   0
MKO   67  91  71  94 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   66  90  70  93 /  10   0   0   0
F10   66  93  71  95 /  20   0   0   0
HHW   70  91  71  93 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1234 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing early this afternoon across
central Oklahoma, and are moving eastward toward parts of east
central and southeast Oklahoma. Additional thunderstorm development
is expected in eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the
afternoon and into the evening, in association with a disturbance
pushing through the region. The stronger storms may produce gusty
winds.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...
                      Dangerous Heat Potential.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...Dangerous Heat Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Heat and humidity will build across the area Friday and continue
through the weekend and into the next work week. Afternoon heat
index values of 100 to 109 degrees will be common over the weekend
and into next week.

Another disturbance will move through the area Saturday night
into Sunday bringing another chance for showers and storms,
mainly to northeast Oklahoma. Low chances for storms will return
by the middle of next week as activity expected to develop to the
north in Kansas could impact parts of northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
248 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

OKZ070-072-074-052015-
Haskell OK-Muskogee OK-Sequoyah OK-
248 PM CDT Thu Aug 5 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Haskell, western Sequoyah and southeastern Muskogee Counties through
315 PM CDT...

At 248 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 4 miles
south of Webbers Falls, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vian...                           Gore...
Webbers Falls...                  Tamaha...
Lake Tenkiller State Park...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 280 and
298.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3533 9518 3549 9526 3562 9501 3537 9489
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 248DEG 8KT 3544 9514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lacy