Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
300 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped this
afternoon and will likely continue into the overnight hours.
Given the excessive rainfall amounts that have fallen in some
places over the past 48 hours, it seems prudent to extend the
flash flood watch through tonight. The coverage of showers and
storms overnight and the most favored location for additional
heavy rainfall is in doubt with a lack of model consensus on this,
but additional rainfall amounts over two inches are at least
locally possible overnight.

The trend over the next few days will be towards lesser coverage
of showers and storms, and lesser potential for widespread heavy
rainfall amounts. The upper trough just to our west will retrogade
west as an upper ridge to our east also retrogrades west. Deep
moisture will remain in place though, so scattered showers and
storms will continue, with locally heavy rainfall possible.

By late week, a significant upper trough will develop to our east,
which should drive a weak cold front south through the area. This
should bring an end to the rain chances by next weekend.

Temperatures have overachieved in many places the past couple
days, and with rain coverage lessening over the next few days,
this trend is likely to continue. As a result, have raised high
temperatures above the National Blend of Models forecast most
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  86  71  87 /  70  60  70  60
FSM   73  90  72  91 /  50  50  30  40
MLC   71  87  69  88 /  50  70  40  50
BVO   68  84  69  85 /  70  60  70  70
FYV   69  86  68  87 /  50  50  40  50
BYV   69  87  69  88 /  50  50  40  50
MKO   71  87  70  88 /  60  70  50  50
MIO   69  85  69  86 /  70  60  70  70
F10   70  86  69  87 /  70  70  60  50
HHW   71  88  71  89 /  30  70  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ054>071.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
118 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
118 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Isolated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to increase in
coverage this afternoon into this evening across parts of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a surface boundary remains over
the region. Locally heavy rainfall aiding to an continued flash
flood as well as river flood concern will be the main threats
through tonight. There also is a non zero severe potential with
locally strong winds from any thunderstorm development into this
evening. Rain showers with the potential for thunderstorms will
continue to be possible once again overnight tonight across the
region.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An unsettled weather pattern will result in several rounds
of showers and storms across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas through this week. Locally heavy rain will continue to
be the main concern. Additional rainfall on top of recent rains
will also continue to carry a flooding potential.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
352 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

OKZ067-272130-
Wagoner OK-
352 PM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WAGONER COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM CDT...

At 351 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Porter, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm. Funnel clouds are possible in the tropical air mass, but
tornado development is unlikely.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wagoner...                        Coweta...
Porter...                         Redbird...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3607 9544 3608 9541 3605 9526 3590 9529
      3582 9558 3594 9566 3608 9544
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 241DEG 17KT 3591 9553

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