Areal Flood Warning 22, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
616 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Areas of showers/storms are ongoing across northeast Oklahoma into
northwest Arkansas, with MVFR cigs/vsbys in the heavier rain areas.
This activity will likely diminish some later this morning, although
scattered showers/storms will be possible through the remainder of
the day and into the evening hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and storms continue across northeast
Oklahoma early this morning a southerly low level jet
of around 30 knots creates lift to the north of an outflow
boundary that extends from far northwest Arkansas to near
Eufaula, Oklahoma and westward into south-central Oklahoma.
An MCV lifting east-northeast out of southwest Oklahoma
will only serve to enhance the lift across the region as
we approach sunrise. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per
hour have been common with the stronger storms this morning
and that trend will continue today. Like yesterday, this
activity will begin to diminish mid to late morning as the
low level jet weakens. However, additional showers and storms
will develop again this afternoon in the vicinity of any
left over outflow boundaries. A flash flood watch will continue
for much of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through
this afternoon.

The shower and storm chances will remain high tonight as the
overall scenario doesn't change a whole lot. A nearly stationary
front will be just to the north and west of area with a persistent
southwesterly flow aloft. Locally heavy rains will again be a concern.

The potential for showers and storms will continue through the
week even as the upper level trough over the region gets nudged
out of the area through mid-week by the mid-Atlantic ridge building
to the west. A south to southwesterly flow aloft will help to keep
deep moisture flowing into the region. This activity will likely
be more scattered in nature with any surface boundary well west
and north of the area.

Late in the week, a cold front is expected to move into the
area as a large upper level trough is carved out across the
eastern US. This front will provide the focus for more showers
and storms from Thursday into the weekend as the front will
likely stall out near the Red River on Saturday.

Did not stray much from the NBM guidance with high temperatures
expected to remain below normal through the forecast period across
much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  70  85  71 /  80  80  90  70
FSM   88  72  88  72 /  50  40  80  50
MLC   86  70  85  69 /  60  60  90  60
BVO   81  69  83  68 /  80  80  80  70
FYV   85  68  86  68 /  70  70  80  50
BYV   85  69  86  68 /  70  60  80  50
MKO   83  70  84  69 /  80  70  90  60
MIO   82  69  85  68 /  80  80  90  60
F10   84  69  84  69 /  80  70  90  60
HHW   88  71  85  71 /  50  30  80  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ054>071.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

AVIATION.....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
447 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
447 AM CDT Sun Jun 27 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing and again this afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the morning across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
before diminishing. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon and into tonight in the
vicinity of any remnant outflow boundaries and near a stationary
front lingering nearby. Heavy rain will be the main concern
with many areas across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
seeing 2 to 4 inches of additional rain today with locally higher
amounts possible. The will likely lead to flooding of low lying
areas. There will also be the potential for a few strong to
severe storms with strong gusty winds the concern.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An unsettled weather pattern will result in several rounds
of showers and storms across eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas this week. Locally heavy rain will continue to be
the main concern.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BEGGS                   35.74N 96.07W
06/27/2021                   OKMULGEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS

            MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OKMULGEE COUNTY AT THIS TIME.

&&

JDS