Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
430 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
tonight, before ending from northwest to southeast late tonight
and Thursday as a cold front pushes through the area. An almost
tropical like airmass is in place over the area with deep
moisture, low LCL's, and moderate to strong low level shear. This
has resulted in rather innocuous looking storms showing low level
rotation overnight. The main severe weather threat through the
morning will continue to be tornadoes from low-topped convection.

Outflow boundaries from morning convection will likely determine
where any severe storms may fire later this afternoon into the
evening. The overall best severe parameters will likely be to our
southwest though. Locally heavy rainfall will be a bigger concern
in our area by later today and tonight, with both flash flooding
and main-stem river flooding possible depending on just where the
heavier rain swaths set up.

We will dry out later Thursday through Saturday, but the model
consensus has shifted much farther north with the track of the
upper system once it finally ejects out of northern Mexico or
southwest Texas. Thus shower and thunderstorm chances will return
Sunday as this system moves over or near the area.

Another storm system may affect the area early next week, but the
usual timing differences exist, so pops have been kept on the
lower side for now.

Stayed fairly close to the National Blend of Models forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1234 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR cigs will gradually lower to MVFR categories overnight as
areal coverage of rain and thunder begin to increase.
MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys will prevail through the period in periods
of RA/+RA and thunder. RA/TSRA is expected to end late in the
period across the NE OK sites as a cold front moves through
those sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  60  73  51 / 100  90  30  10
FSM   78  63  75  53 / 100  90  80  20
MLC   76  61  73  52 / 100  90  60  20
BVO   74  58  73  48 /  90  80  20  10
FYV   73  61  71  47 / 100  90  60  10
BYV   72  61  71  49 / 100  90  60  10
MKO   74  61  73  51 / 100  90  50  10
MIO   71  59  73  49 / 100  90  30  10
F10   74  59  73  51 / 100  90  40  10
HHW   80  63  73  55 /  60 100  80  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 27 2021

...A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
    AREA... Eastern Oklahoma, generally south of Interstate 40.
    ONSET... After Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
A band of showers and storms along and just south of Interstate 44
will continue to expand and increase in intensity through the
night. Locations to the south of Interstate 40 in eastern Oklahoma
will stand the best chance to see strong to severe storms late
tonight. The threat for severe weather is lower across northeast
Oklahoma though the threat may start to increase by sunrise. The
main severe threats tonight will be large hail to quarter size and
damaging wind gusts to 60 miles per hour. Locally heavy rainfall
will also be a concern as well thanks to an unseasonably moist
airmass in place. Rainfall rates in the strongest storms will
exceed 1 inch per hour. Rainfall rates could briefly touch 2
inches per hour.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms should be ongoing Wednesday morning,
becoming widespread during the day and into the overnight, as a
strong upper level low pressure system moves slowly east from the
southwest U.S. into West Texas and a cold front sags southeast
into the area. A few severe storms will be possible, but heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding and mainstem river flooding
will likely be the greater concern. Rainfall will taper off from
northwest to southeast late Wednesday night and Thursday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Snider

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
154 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

OKZ054>057-059>062-064-280715-
Tulsa OK-Craig OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Pawnee OK-Nowata OK-
Washington OK-Creek OK-Mayes OK-
154 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CRAIG...ROGERS...
SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN CREEK...NORTHERN MAYES...SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN NOWATA...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND NORTHERN TULSA
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

At 151 AM CDT, Thunderstorms were moving across parts of northeast
Oklahoma, moving northeast at 50 mph. Winds from the north side of
the the thunderstorms may produce a few wind gusts up to 50 mph.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Sand Springs...
Claremore...                      Vinita...
Nowata...                         Pawhuska...
Owasso...                         Pryor Creek...
Skiatook...                       Collinsville...
Verdigris...                      Hominy...
Cleveland...                      Mannford...
Chelsea...                        Barnsdall...
Sperry...                         Oologah...
Oilton...                         Adair...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 244 and 291.

LAT...LON 3637 9509 3602 9661 3665 9648 3679 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0651Z 206DEG 46KT 3636 9584

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
216 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

OKZ057-061-062-280745-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Mayes OK-
216 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CRAIG...NORTHEASTERN
ROGERS AND NORTHWESTERN MAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM CDT...

At 216 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles southeast of
Chelsea, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vinita...                         Chelsea...
Adair...                          Big Cabin...
Pensacola...                      White Oak...
Bushyhead...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 265 and 287.

LAT...LON 3664 9500 3663 9500 3640 9516 3646 9554
      3660 9547 3660 9543 3667 9543 3672 9541
TIME...MOT...LOC 0716Z 228DEG 28KT 3650 9541

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
512 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

ARZ010-019-OKZ069-072-281045-
Washington AR-Crawford AR-Adair OK-Sequoyah OK-
512 AM CDT Wed Apr 28 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...NORTH CENTRAL SEQUOYAH AND SOUTHERN ADAIR
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

At 512 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southeast of
Bunch, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm along
with locally heavy downpours.

Locations in or near the path include...
Stilwell...                       Brushy...
Adair State Park...               Lee Creek...
Bunch...                          Maryetta...
Odell...                          Summers...
Morrow...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for northwestern
Arkansas...and northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3552 9478 3563 9481 3574 9481 3600 9450
      3568 9432
TIME...MOT...LOC 1012Z 226DEG 30KT 3563 9470