Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
252 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Immediate forecast concerns this morning are convective evolution
this morning and into the early part of the afternoon, followed by
yet another afternoon of heightened fire weather conditions.

With the increasing low level jet, showers and thunderstorms
continue to slowly expand southward along the cold front just west
of the I-35 corridor. These thunderstorms will move into parts of
eastern Oklahoma prior to sunrise and push eastward toward the
Arkansas border through mid morning. Given favorable instability
and shear parameters, a strong to severe storm remains possible
early this morning, with large hail being the primary threat.
Toward mid to late morning and continuing into early afternoon,
additional thunderstorm development is expected, primarily across
far eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas. This development
is more likely to be severe, especially as it moves across the
eastern fringes of the forecast area. Large hail and damaging wind
continue to be the favored threats, but a low end tornado threat
exists as well. Thunderstorm threats will shift east of the
forecast area late afternoon. During the evening, parts of
northeast Oklahoma may be on the fringes of the wraparound showers
associated with the main upper system moving across Kansas, and as
such, will carry some low POPs into the evening to cover this
potential.

Gusty westerly winds will develop today behind the front, with a
sharp decrease in low level moisture as well. This will lead to an
increase in the fire spread potential, especially across parts of
eastern Oklahoma that, due to the early frontal passage, should
be dry for much of the day. Near critical grassland fire spread
rates again look likely. On Thursday, winds will remain gusty
across at least the northern two-thirds of the area and a larger
area of low humidities will exist.

Models continue to show fairly dramatic moisture return ahead of
the next, fast-moving storm system Friday and into Friday night.
The initial showers and thunderstorms should develop Friday
afternoon, with coverage and intensity peaking Friday evening
before moving out of the area early Saturday morning behind
another cold front. The highest moisture will be across parts of
southeast Oklahoma and a severe weather threat will be focused in
that part of the forecast area Friday afternoon and evening.

Behind Friday's front, the weekend looks dry with a big warmup on
Sunday following a cooldown Saturday. Thunderstorm chances
increase Sunday night and into Monday as yet another system
approaches and moves through the region. With surface high
pressure expected to settle in Tuesday, dry and seasonally weather
looks like the most likely scenario, and thus, have gone below the
POPs offered by the NBM Monday night through Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  46  75  53 /  60   0   0   0
FSM   74  47  75  53 /  70   0   0   0
MLC   70  47  77  56 /  70   0   0   0
BVO   63  45  72  48 /  40  10   0   0
FYV   68  44  71  49 /  70  10   0   0
BYV   71  45  68  53 /  70  10   0   0
MKO   67  45  74  53 /  70   0   0   0
MIO   66  45  70  48 /  70  10   0   0
F10   68  45  76  54 /  70   0   0   0
HHW   75  48  78  56 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
438 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-080945-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
438 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Far Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Morning.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Early Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand through the
morning and into the afternoon along a cold front moving eastward
across the area. Ahead of the front, instability and shear
parameters both favor an isolated severe weather threat this
morning, but the greater threat should hold off until late morning
and early afternoon in far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats, but a
very limited tornado threat also exists, mainly in western
Arkansas. All thunderstorm activity should be east of the area
late this afternoon.

In addition to the severe weather threat, fire weather concerns
will also increase across eastern Oklahoma this afternoon.
Southerly winds gusting to 35 mph this morning will shift to a
westerly direction behind the front, and low level moisture will
decrease substantially. The worst conditions will be found across
southeast Oklahoma, where minimum humidities near 25 percent are
expected. Winds will remain gusty through the night, which will
keep some fire weather threat past sunset.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...
         High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Westerly winds will remain gusty on Thursday and with low
humidities expected areawide, will lead to another day of
increased fire spread concerns.

Thunderstorm chances increase Friday afternoon and into Friday
night, as moisture will return to the area fairly quickly ahead of
a fast moving storm system. Severe thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon and evening, with parts of southeast Oklahoma
most susceptible.

After a dry Saturday and Sunday, another storm system will bring
showers and thunderstorms to the region Sunday night into Monday,
as well as gusty winds and a resultant increase in the fire
spread threat.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
313 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

OKZ074-075-070845-
Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
313 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HASKELL AND
NORTHERN LATIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 313 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles east of
Wilburton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wilburton...                      Red Oak...
Damon...                          Lequire...
Panola...

LAT...LON 3493 9539 3519 9503 3507 9493 3494 9493
      3494 9500 3490 9500 3478 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0813Z 234DEG 26KT 3490 9525

Lacy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
536 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

OKZ063-068-069-071100-
Adair OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-
536 AM CDT Wed Apr 7 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE...
NORTHWESTERN ADAIR AND NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

At 536 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
Peggs, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      West Siloam Springs...
Colcord...                        Kansas...
Hulbert...                        Watts...
Oaks...                           Peggs...
Leach...                          Scraper...
Twin Oaks...                      Ballard...
Lost City...                      Natural Falls State Park...

LAT...LON 3583 9508 3601 9520 3643 9461 3607 9456
TIME...MOT...LOC 1036Z 234DEG 49KT 3605 9498

Lacy