Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 14, 2021Crawford County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Mar 14, 2021, 5:38 PM CDT for Crawford County, Arkansas. It was in force for 22 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 14, 2021, 5:38 PM CDT (22:38 UTC)
Expired: Mar 14, 2021, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 22 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Crawford County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 512 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 324 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 296 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Mar 14, 2:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 14, 2:30 PM CDT, 3 hours 8 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
230 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Pacific front has pushed into northwest Arkansas early this afternoon.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms continue behind the front in association
with expansive upper low currently centered over far southeast Colorado.
Widespread 1.0-1.5 inch rainfall amounts are expected before precipitation
begins to shift east by mid to late evening. Although instability is
currently limited, we could still see a few storms produce small hail
and heavy rainfall.

Warm and breezy conditions forecast on Monday as surface low tracks
across southern Kansas and begins to slowly weaken. Although most
areas will have seen significant rainfall by this time, an elevated
fire weather danger will likely develop Monday afternoon across southeast
Oklahoma with minimum RH values falling into the 25-30 percent range.
This area also received the least amount of rainfall, therefore fine
fuels will likely dry out quickly and if ignited could spread out
of control.

Strong/compact upper low, mentioned in previous discussions, will quickly
shift east over the desert southwest during the day Tuesday and approach
the region from the west Tuesday night. NAM solution the most aggressive
with lifting warm front through the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening as surface low track into northwest Oklahoma. If lower 60s dewpoints
materialize in the warm sector, strong wind profiles will support scattered
supercells with very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
GFS is less aggressive with moisture return during this time with
a narrow tongue of surface based instability forecast across southeast
Oklahoma. Therefore, there are still some uncertainties regarding
the overall extent of severe weather Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night. As we get a little closer to the event, we will likely get
a better handle on moisture return/instability and the potential
for a more substantial severe threat. Storms will likely sweep
east of the area Wednesday morning with the severe threat ending.

Cold/breezy conditions expected behind departing system Thursday with
surface high pressure building over the southern plains Friday. Temperatures
will begin to moderate over the weekend with highs back into the
60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  69  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   44  74  46  76 /  40   0   0   0
MLC   47  74  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   44  66  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   41  70  42  73 /  60   0   0   0
BYV   44  67  45  72 /  80   0   0   0
MKO   45  70  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   44  66  41  71 /  40  10   0   0
F10   47  71  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   44  74  48  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....99

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 14, 5:21 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 14, 4:42 PM CDT, 56 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
442 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

ARZ029-OKZ076-142215-
Sebastian AR-Le Flore OK-
442 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 442 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles south of Big
Cedar, moving north at 70 mph.

Dime to penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Heavener...
Wister...                         Howe...
Hartford...                       Octavia...
Heavener Runestone State Park...  Muse...
Big Cedar...                      Hodgen...

LAT...LON 3451 9482 3500 9473 3506 9436 3495 9440
      3493 9445 3476 9445 3451 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 197DEG 59KT 3460 9465

Special weather statement, Mar 14, 5:10 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Mar 14, 5:38 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 13, 8:40 PM CST	River Flood Warning	TSA	Osage, Tulsa	22 hr
Mar 14, 4:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	LeFlore	33 min
Mar 14, 5:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	35 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2021 Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.