Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
230 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Pacific front has pushed into northwest Arkansas early this afternoon.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms continue behind the front in association
with expansive upper low currently centered over far southeast Colorado.
Widespread 1.0-1.5 inch rainfall amounts are expected before precipitation
begins to shift east by mid to late evening. Although instability is
currently limited, we could still see a few storms produce small hail
and heavy rainfall.

Warm and breezy conditions forecast on Monday as surface low tracks
across southern Kansas and begins to slowly weaken. Although most
areas will have seen significant rainfall by this time, an elevated
fire weather danger will likely develop Monday afternoon across southeast
Oklahoma with minimum RH values falling into the 25-30 percent range.
This area also received the least amount of rainfall, therefore fine
fuels will likely dry out quickly and if ignited could spread out
of control.

Strong/compact upper low, mentioned in previous discussions, will quickly
shift east over the desert southwest during the day Tuesday and approach
the region from the west Tuesday night. NAM solution the most aggressive
with lifting warm front through the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening as surface low track into northwest Oklahoma. If lower 60s dewpoints
materialize in the warm sector, strong wind profiles will support scattered
supercells with very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
GFS is less aggressive with moisture return during this time with
a narrow tongue of surface based instability forecast across southeast
Oklahoma. Therefore, there are still some uncertainties regarding
the overall extent of severe weather Tuesday evening into Tuesday
night. As we get a little closer to the event, we will likely get
a better handle on moisture return/instability and the potential
for a more substantial severe threat. Storms will likely sweep
east of the area Wednesday morning with the severe threat ending.

Cold/breezy conditions expected behind departing system Thursday with
surface high pressure building over the southern plains Friday. Temperatures
will begin to moderate over the weekend with highs back into the
60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   47  69  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   44  74  46  76 /  40   0   0   0
MLC   47  74  46  75 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   44  66  40  70 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   41  70  42  73 /  60   0   0   0
BYV   44  67  45  72 /  80   0   0   0
MKO   45  70  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   44  66  41  71 /  40  10   0   0
F10   47  71  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   44  74  48  75 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1253 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...West of Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to
slowly spread to the east across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas today with activity ending from west to
east. The showers and storms are expected to be east of
the area by mid-evening. Additional rainfall amounts of
one-quarter inch to around inch will be possible across
far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas which could lead
to some localized flooding.

Fire weather danger will increase slightly across portions of
northeast Oklahoma, mainly to the west of highway 75 late
this afternoon as drier air moves into the area. As skies
clear across this area this afternoon, temperatures are
expected to rise back into the mid to upper 60s which will
aid the fire weather danger.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY...Very High Fire Weather Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Strong winds are anticipated behind a Pacific front that will move
through the area Monday morning. Gusts over 30 mph will be likely
behind the front Monday afternoon. The gusty winds and warm, dry
air will lead to increased fire weather potential, especially in
areas that didn't receive substantial rainfall over the weekend.
Another warm and windy day is expected on Tuesday, raising fire
weather concerns again. However, low level moisture will be on the
increase throughout the day ahead of an approaching upper level
low. Thunderstorms are likely across the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. A severe hail threat will likely evolve with
these storms overnight Tuesday and tornadoes cannot be ruled out
at this point either.

This system will push through another front on Wednesday,
bringing gusty northwesterly winds Wednesday afternoon and
Thursday with gusts over 30 mph once again likely each afternoon.
Mostly quiet weather is expected behind this system heading into
next weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
442 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

ARZ029-OKZ076-142215-
Sebastian AR-Le Flore OK-
442 PM CDT Sun Mar 14 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN LE FLORE COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 442 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 3 miles south of Big
Cedar, moving north at 70 mph.

Dime to penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Poteau...                         Heavener...
Wister...                         Howe...
Hartford...                       Octavia...
Heavener Runestone State Park...  Muse...
Big Cedar...                      Hodgen...

LAT...LON 3451 9482 3500 9473 3506 9436 3495 9440
      3493 9445 3476 9445 3451 9453
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 197DEG 59KT 3460 9465

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