Areal Flood Advisory 52, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Prevailing flight conditions will remain in the MVFR to IFR range
this morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms along and
south of I-40 potentially impacting KMLC and KFSM through about
18z. Ceilings should improve for the afternoon and into tonight
but low ceilings and/or fog likely to return to some degree late
in the period. Potential for additional showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and overnight tonight more uncertain and as such,
will not include in terminals at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Cluster of storms have developed over far southeast Oklahoma this
morning in association with convergent zone of low level jet. Given
the saturated soil conditions, a flash flood threat will continue
with the stronger thunderstorm activity through the morning hours.
Depending on latest radar trends, may extend in time portions of
the flash flood watch.

At least low thunderstorm chances will persist across northwest
Arkansas Wednesday and Thursday. Upper high will begin to build
into the region from the west with a warming trend through the
remainder of the work week. Given the recent rainfall over the
last several days and some of the raw model guidance, did increase
dew-points by a few degrees each day, compared to the NBM, into
the early part the weekend. This will likely push forecast
afternoon heat indices into the 100-105 degree range Thursday
through Saturday in some areas.

Weak frontal boundary will push into the region on Saturday as
upper level wave slides southeast around periphery of upper high.
At least low precip chances are expected in association with
boundary. The warm/humid conditions however are expected to
persist into Sunday. A drier air-mass may filter into the region
by Monday but this remains to be seen given the ECMWF is less
aggressive with building surface high across the upper mid west
compared to the GFS solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  72  89  74 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   84  72  88  74 /  50  40  30  20
MLC   84  72  87  74 /  50  30  10  10
BVO   86  69  89  72 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   83  67  85  69 /  40  30  30  30
BYV   82  68  86  69 /  50  30  40  30
MKO   83  71  86  73 /  30  30  10  10
MIO   84  69  86  71 /  20  20  20  20
F10   84  71  87  73 /  30  20  10  10
HHW   83  72  87  74 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ049-053-076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ020-029.

&&

AVIATION.....14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
453 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
453 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
 	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far southeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A cluster of strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall will
continue this morning across far southeast Oklahoma. The threat
for localized flash flooding will persist through mid morning
across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas before storms
generally shift east of the region. A few of the storms could
also produce strong gusty winds.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible again this afternoon
and tonight, mainly across southeast Oklahoma and west-central
Arkansas. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible in the
stronger storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
While daily thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast, chances
will be lower in general from Thursday into the weekend compared
to the past few days. Locally heavy rainfall will be the primary
threat, but an isolated severe storm can't be ruled out.

Heat indices will be climbing toward the end of the week as
temperatures rise along with the humidity. Heat indices in the
100 to 105 degree range are forecast each afternoon in some areas
which could lead to an increase in heat related stress, especially
for persons not yet fully acclimated to the warmer weather.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.