Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
336 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Recent water vapor imagery showing moisture streaming ENE from the
southern Rockies ahead of a mean trough from Quebec into the central
Plains. Some smaller scale waves were rotating through the main
trough, notably apparent in north-central Nebraska and in northeast
Colorado. The synoptic boundary remains in north-central Kansas with
isolated short-lived convection recently forming near it. Steadier
precipitation continues in mainly east-central Kansas in association
with a modest MCV with generally light to moderate with more robust
convection just to the southeast where some insolation has resulted
from a clearer day.

Main challenge is the next 12 hours in timing and intensity of
precipitation. Precipitation should continue to be at least
scattered through the early evening for much of the area as the
upstream waves approach. Best coverage earlier obviously in the
southeast but patchy clearing in northern areas near the front has
allowed form some destabilization. Instability and shear remain
weak though a strong gust could still occur in a few storms. This
area may even be more of an area to watch for stronger storms with
temps till in the mid 70s in east-central Kansas and keeping
instability in check, but the chance for impactful winds or any
hail has become rather low. A few reports of funnel clouds have
been received to the north and east of the area and with the
boundary and decent near-surface CAPE, additional reports in
mainly northern Kansas can't be ruled out. As for precipitation
amounts, it's hard to expect anything more than isolated heavy
totals in this setup though with additional storms forming near
where heavy rain occurred earlier today and ongoing training
precip to the south, will keep the Flash Flood Watch going. The
large-scale upper trough axis exits Friday morning with the front
passing through a bit ahead of this so will keep some small precip
chances in southeastern areas into Friday. The other possible
impactful weather is possible fog development tonight in a damp,
recently wetted boundary layer with little wind. Although most
guidance brings stratus in through the night, have included some
fog in northern and central counties.

Some residual moisture continues to be progged to linger in mainly
western areas into the weekend as additional waves move southeast as
the upper ridge amplifies in the western states. This keeps some
precip mention for at least the west for much of the weekend though
rainfall should not be persistent or storms terribly strong. The
upper ridge nudges east into the northern Plains with a better push
of drier air into the region into the mid week for a drier forecast.
Temperatures should remain close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Terminals may remain on the northern edge of the main area of
precipitation as it moves ENE over the next several hours but
did keep a tempo for some precip for a few hours. Cigs may be able
to rise to VFR outside of the precip for a few hours but
deteriorating conditions are expected overnight in light winds and
a wet boundary layer.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ021>024-
026-035>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

DISCUSSION...65
AVIATION...65

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
339 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-162045-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
339 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

At least scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue into the evening. Additional moderate to heavy rainfall
occur which could lead to flash flooding, especially where heavy
rains fell earlier today. The Flash Flood Watch continues for much
of the area into the late evening. Severe weather is not expected
with these thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
328 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

KSZ008-152100-
Republic-
328 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN REPUBLIC COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

At 324 PM CDT, Doppler Radar was tracking a thunderstorm that is
capable of producing a funnel cloud. Current conditions make it
unlikely that any funnel cloud will lower to the ground or do any
damage. However, people should remain alert and move to a safe place
if a funnel cloud approaches. Please report funnel clouds to the
National Weather Service.

Locations impacted include...
Republic and Munden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9746 3991 9741 3982 9788 3998 9793
      4000 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 239DEG 13KT 3996 9767

Teefey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
406 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

KSZ008-152130-
Republic-
406 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 404 PM CDT, Doppler Radar was tracking a thunderstorm that is
capable of producing a funnel cloud. Current conditions make it
unlikely that any funnel cloud will lower to the ground or do any
damage. However, people should remain alert and move to a safe place
if a funnel cloud approaches. Please report funnel clouds to the
National Weather Service.

This storm could also be producing wind gusts to 40 mph or greater
and small hail.

Locations impacted include...
Republic and Munden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9754 3986 9754 3983 9793 4000 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 255DEG 7KT 3992 9778

Teefey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
454 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

KSZ020-152230-
Cloud-
454 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 454 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Aurora, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Aurora.

LAT...LON 3931 9752 3934 9768 3949 9768 3946 9744
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 203DEG 9KT 3937 9761

Teefey