Areal Flood Advisory 48, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
530 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

08Z water vapor imagery and profiler data shows a low amplitude
trough over the central plains with one or two convectively
induced vort maximum likely within the trough. Surface obs show
the low level moisture has spread back to the west along an
inverted surface trough that extends from a surface low over
southwest KS across northern MO.

The main concern for today remains the potential for heavy rainfall
and flash flooding. We have already seen thunderstorms producing
heavy rainfall with rates up to 3 inches per hour. Models show
precipital water values remaining just over two inches across east
central KS while the deep layer flow remains somewhat parallel to
the weak surface trough bisecting the forecast area. So there
remains the potential for slow moving storms tracking over the same
areas as we've already seen this morning. Because of this have
issued a flash flood watch through this evening. As for severe
thunderstorms with hail and wind, models have tended to shift the
axis of higher CAPE to the southeast where there may be more
heating. Meanwhile the deep layer shear remains marginal with 0-6KM
shear values of 20KT to 30KT. Perhaps the bigger uncertainty is
whether this morning's convection holds together and persists into
the daytime hours or will there be redevelopment later today. The
CAMs do not appear to be handling the current convection very well,
and try to show storms redeveloping by early afternoon. With the low
level jet likely feeding high theta-e air into the convective
complex, think it may be able to hang together for a little while.
This may cause more cloud cover and less heating for east central KS
and lowering the risk for severe storms. So while there may be an
isolated storm with some hail and wind, the heavy rain looks to be
the main concern. Highs today are expected to be limited by the
clouds and rain with readings generally in the lower 80s. The upper
trough is progged to slowly push east and south this evening with
not a whole lot of scouring of the moisture. So have some decent
POPs over east central KS through the evening hours. Lows tonight
are forecast to be in the mid and upper 60s with possible stratus
lingering overnight holding temps a little warmer than they otherwise
would be.

For Friday through Monday, northwest to north flow is progged to
persist with some possible disturbances moving through the area.
Moisture may not be as good but with the energy there could be
scattered shower activity so have some chance POPs persisting. Temps
through the middle of next week look to remain mild as surface
ridging continues to nose into northeast KS and the upper ridge
remaining over the west. Temps are likely to trend warmer towards
the end of next week as models indicate this upper ridge propagating
to the east. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be mainly dry with the
deeper moisture pushed to the south and no obvious shortwaves
progged to impact the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

Main challenge today is timing convection at the terminals. Water
vapor shows an upper trough axis still to the west of the forecast
area and with models showing this to be the case into the early
afternoon, TS are forecast to redevelop at some point today.
Think this may be more likely in the mid to late afternoon once
the boundary layer has had a change to recover from the morning
precip. Confidence in the timing is only so-so as CAMs are not
handling the current precip well. Think VFR conditions should
prevail through the day today. However models show some stratus
developing overnight as the weak boundary pushes south. So may
introduce some MVFR CIGS for this.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ021>024-026-
035>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Wolters
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
428 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-160930-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
428 AM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall are likely today. These
storms may tend to move slowly over the same areas producing
several inches of rainfall in a short period of time. Because of
this a flash flood watch has been posted for parts of north
central and northeast Kansas and all of east central Kansas
through this evening. The thunderstorms may also be strong enough
to produce some hail and wind near severe levels. Although this
potential appears to be limited to areas south of Interstate 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts over one inch
to the National Weather Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

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