Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
554 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Early this afternoon a mid-level perturbation was moving east across
the state of KS. An outflow boundary was draped across the
southwest counties and then extended east-southeast to EMP and
then east-northeast along I-35. Ascent ahead of the perturbation
combined with a weak cap and ascent along and north of the OFB was
enough lift for showers and thunderstorms to redevelop this
afternoon. Some of the storms that form along the outflow boundary
have produced brief funnels as pre-existing vertical vorticity
close to the surface along the boundary has been stretched
vertically producing the funnel clouds. The stronger cells should
diminish after sunset. Though we may keep scattered showers and a
few elevated thunderstorms as weak isentropic lift develops north
of the boundary. The thunderstorms that develop along the high
plains this evening will probably weaken as they move into central
KS. I cannot rule out some of the leftover showers moving across
the CWA Monday morning.

We may see a break in the rain Monday afternoon into Monday night.
However, a southern stream upper level trough will be lifting
northeast out of NM and across west TX on Tuesday. Rich gulf
moisture will advecting northward at 850mb and the resulting
anisotropic lift will cause rain and thunderstorms to redevelop
Tuesday afternoon, with periods of showers and thunderstorms
continuing into Thursday morning. Some of the rain may be heavy at
times across eastern KS on Wednesday as the H5 trough lifts
northeast across the state of KS.

Thursday afternoon through Friday night, we may see another break in
the rain and storms, though there could be isolated showers and
storms due the continue rich gulf moisture advection across the
Plains but a down stream upper ridge amplifying across the MS
River Valley will provide for enough large scale subsidence. An
amplified upper level trough will move east into the central
Rookies.

Saturday through Sunday, there may be a better chance for showers
and thunderstorms across the CWA as the upper trough fills and lifts
northeast across the northern high plains. The southwesterly mid
level flow will be stronger across eastern CO and western KS, so I
think our chances for severe thunderstorms across the CWA will be
low. However, due to all the rainfall we may see some more flooding
problems.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 554 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

2230Z water vapor and profiler data suggests a shortwave trough
axis is moving east towards the MO state line now. Except for some
isolated activity across central KS, it looks like the back edge
of the showers is working it's way through the forecast area now.
CAMs support the idea of precip ending this evening. Which brings
the question of LIFR potential with CIGs and VSBY. Forecast
soundings from the RAP and NAM show almost a completely saturated
boundary layer. Winds look to favor LIFR conditions but the
question is will high clouds clear out. Convection in the high
plains of CO may cast additional cirrus over the area tonight.
Think the probability for IFR is high enough to include in the
forecast and will monitor trends before taking the forecast into
LIFR. Forecast soundings show the boundary layer mixing out around
16Z Monday with CIGs improving through the afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Gargan
AVIATION...Wolters

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
355 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-172100-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
355 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon
and evening. Heavy rain remains a possibility, with local flash
flooding possible. Due to the heavy rainfall from this morning
south of I-70, any additional rainfall will cause flash flooding.
Some rivers and creeks have also gone above minor flood stage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop Monday
afternoon. The stronger storms may produce some small hail and
gusty winds, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
418 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

KSZ040-055-056-059-162145-
Douglas-Franklin-Osage-Anderson-
418 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN...NORTHWESTERN
ANDERSON...SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND EASTERN OSAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

At 418 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pomona Lake to near Richmond. Movement was
northeast at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ottawa, Baldwin City, Wellsville, Overbrook, Centropolis, Pomona,
Richmond, Williamsburg, Quenemo, Melvern, Lone Star, Princeton, Lane,
Rantoul, Pomona Lake and Globe.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 160 and 198.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9507 3844 9507 3830 9527 3839 9551
      3843 9551 3844 9565 3871 9567 3892 9545
      3870 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 216DEG 29KT 3868 9561 3840 9522

Skow

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
620 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

KSZ056-059-162345-
Franklin-Anderson-
620 PM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND
NORTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 620 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Princeton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ottawa, Richmond, Princeton, Lane and Rantoul.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 178 and 194.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 9540 3846 9547 3871 9516 3858 9507
      3842 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 237DEG 24KT 3846 9528

Skow