Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
603 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

A northwest to southeast oriented line of thunderstorms has
blossomed over the past few hours as the LLJ strengthened across
the area and WAA increased. The initial storms did have a few
localized areas of up to nickel sized hail, given MUCAPE of around
1000 J/kg and around 20 kts of shear. However as storms have
become more widespread over the past couple hours the main threat
has transitioned to heavy rain and flash flooding. The slow
movement of individual storms and some training cells have
resulted in local rainfall amounts of over 2". Some southern
portions of Ottawa County have received over 5" since midnight, as
measured by several personal weather stations in the area.

These storms will continue to shift northeast over the remainder of
the morning hours. Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will
remain a possibility across the entire area, though likely a greater
threat across western counties where the heaviest rainfall currently
has been. By late morning and early afternoon, there may be a bit of
a break in activity. The initial precipitation will likely reinforce
the east/west stationary front, keeping it somewhere approximately
midway through the area. South of this boundary, clouds should at
least partially break. This will allow temperatures to warm into the
mid 70s, while likely greater cloud cover to the north will keep
temperatures slightly cooler. By mid to late afternoon, this
boundary may serve as a focus for additional storms to develop along
and move east. While effective shear will only be around 25 kts,
MLCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg south of the stationary front
will result in the potential for a few strong to severe storms, as
low-level shear will be enhanced along the boundary. Large hail and
damaging winds would be the main hazards with these storms as they
likely develop into more of a line and move eastward. These storms
should be more progressive than this morning's storms. However they
still could produce some locally heavy rain and possibly some
additional flooding concerns if they pass over areas that saw higher
totals this morning.

Heading into the first half of next week, there will still be some
rain chances each day. However Monday and Tuesday both look to stay
dry for much of the day, with just some generally light and
scattered showers or thunderstorms around. Best chance for
precipitation on these days will be during the afternoon and early
evening, as generally weak instability develops in an uncapped
environment. More widespread chances for rain will return late
Tuesday into early Wednesday as the large cutoff trough to the south
lifts northeast and isentropic ascent increases. Some heavier rain
amounts may be possible again, but should be somewhat mitigated by
the more progressive nature of the trough as it rejoins the main
flow aloft. Temperatures throughout this period will remain right
around average, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Uncertainty increases for the second half of next week, though
additional shower and thunderstorm chances remain possible.
Southwest flow will develop over the Plains as a deep trough digs
into the western CONUS and a strong upper ridge builds over the
eastern CONUS. This WAA pattern will result in high temperatures
warming to near 80. Increased moisture will keep overnight lows
generally in the 60s. Timing of individual precipitation chances
will remain heavily dependent on individual shortwaves moving
through the southwest flow aloft, and upstream convection to the
west. So for now have generally broadbrushed PoPs over this period,
with some slightly higher PoPs during the climatologically
favored times of day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 602 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

Current ceilings and visibilities within the ongoing showers and
storms are highly variable. In general though, visibilities are
mainly MVFR while ceilings are VFR with local MVFR and IFR pockets.
This should continue over the morning hours as the precipitation
shifts northeast. There may be a brief lull late morning into the
early afternoon, but more showers and thunderstorms should redevelop
in the afternoon into early evening. By late tonight, precipitation
may mostly move out again. Can't rule out some fog developing after
6z, but have left out for now until confidence increases.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
417 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-170930-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
417 AM CDT Sun May 16 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to shift northeast this
morning across the area. Heavy rain remains a possibility, with
local flash flooding possible. Additional storms will likely
redevelop later this afternoon, and may produce hail, strong
winds, and more heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop Monday
afternoon. The stronger storms may produce some small hail and
gusty winds, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed today or tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
423 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BENNINGTON              39.03N 97.59W
05/16/2021  M6.71 INCH       OTTAWA             KS   PUBLIC

            PERSONAL WEATHER STATION. TOTAL SINCE
            MIDNIGHT. RAIN STILL FALLING.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
729 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NW READING            38.58N 96.02W
05/16/2021  M3.55 INCH       LYON               KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

ST