Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
219 PM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

A weather disturbance will move from west to east across the
region today, resulting in a few thunderstorms. Some of the storms
could be strong once again in the Lewistown area. Otherwise, warm
afternoon temperatures are expected today, however expect hot
temperatures over the weekend, along with mostly dry conditions.
Breezy conditions mainly over central and southwest areas may
cause elevated to critical fire weather concerns Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of this Afternoon thru Sunday...

The main concern today continues to be an upper-level disturbance
moving from west to east across the region. Thunderstorms will
develop anywhere across the forecast area primarily north of
Interstate 90 through early evening before departing the area to
the east by mid-evening. Mostly dry/hot temperatures expected
over the region this weekend. Additionally, areas of smoke could
affect locations near the Continental Divide at times. Breezy
conditions especially for southwest and central parts of Montana
could cause elevated or even critical fire weather conditions for
Sunday. There is also a model trend toward increasing the
potential for a few thunderstorms across north-central and central
Montana.

Monday thru Friday...

Overall, expect summer like temperatures for all of next week.
The main concern is the potential for an upper level disturbance
to move through the region on Tuesday. The GFS has higher
probabilities for wetter conditions over Central MT. This solution
seems to have fairly low probability, thus rather a scattered
shower seems more likely. Thus pops are only slight chance to
chance for now. As we move towards next weekend, an upper level
ridge will try to rebuild over the area, resulting in the warm/hot
temperatures along with little/no precipitation. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
1045 AM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021 (09/18Z TAF period)

VFR conditions currently over the region will give way to some MVFR
conditions in/near thunderstorms through the afternoon hours today.
The thunderstorms will generally move from west to east through the
region today. Any storms should be short at the terminals, generally
lasting less than 30 minutes. Also, expect a surface wind shift to
the north for a few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions return across
the region this evening. Mountains passes could be obscured at times
by storms. Also, smoke could reduce distant visibility at times for
locations along the divide, mostly this morning.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some on the dry side, could
have the potential to cause new fire starts across the region.
Hot and dry conditions Saturday will cause elevated fire weather
concerns. For Sunday, hot, dry, and breezy conditions are expected
for west-central and central Montana, and it is possible a fire
weather highlights are needed. Additionally, there is a model
trend toward increasing isolated thunderstorm activity for Sunday
afternoon into early Monday for parts of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  52  96  54  97 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  51  92  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  55  98  60  99 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  48  94  53  98 /  10   0   0   0
WYS  37  85  41  87 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  48  91  54  95 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  56  93  59  96 /  20   0   0   0
LWT  52  89  57  95 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
Deerlodge/Western Beaverhead National Forest...Eastern
Beaverhead National Forest.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
340 PM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

MTZ012-092215-
Cascade MT-
340 PM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CASCADE COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 339 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Great Falls. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Minor
         damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Great Falls, Black Eagle, First Peoples Buffalo Jump State Park and
Malmstrom Afb.

This includes the following highways...
Interstate 15 between mile markers 272 and 289.
Highway 89 between mile markers 86 and 92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Cloud to ground lightning is possible with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4741 11144 4751 11157 4766 11140 4745 11111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 237DEG 4KT 4749 11145

RCG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
348 PM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

MTZ044-046-092215-
Eastern Pondera MT-Toole MT-
348 PM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PONDERA...AND SOUTH
CENTRAL TOOLE COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 346 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 11
miles northeast of Conrad. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Minor
         damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ledger.

This includes Interstate 15 between mile markers 345 and 351.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If you are on or near any area lakes, be prepared to get out of the
water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can
strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to
safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4823 11128 4822 11128 4821 11141 4811 11141
      4798 11175 4834 11200 4844 11169
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 321DEG 4KT 4826 11174

RCG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
352 PM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

MTZ011-013-047-092230-
Chouteau MT-Hill MT-Blaine MT-
352 PM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BLAINE...HILL AND
NORTHEASTERN CHOUTEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 350 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms over
Blaine, Chouteau, and Hill Counties. Movement was south at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Minor
         damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Havre, Chinook, Big Sandy, Harlem, Parker School, Beaver Creek,
Azure, Inverness, Agency, St. Pierre, Gildford, Sangrey, Boneau, Fort
Belknap, Box Elder, Hingham, Rudyard, Rocky Boy, Cleveland and
Zurich.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 336 and 443.
 Highway 87 between mile markers 60 and 111.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If you are on or near any area lakes, be prepared to get out of the
water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can
strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to
safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4851 10841 4832 10852 4806 10872 4780 10943
      4804 11048 4814 11062 4825 11070 4890 11067
      4874 10979 4866 10896 4876 10860
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 357DEG 10KT 4871 10859 4857 10895 4845 10972
4849 11051

RCG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
414 PM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

MTZ044>046-092245-
Liberty MT-Eastern Pondera MT-Toole MT-
414 PM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PONDERA...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY...SOUTHEASTERN TOOLE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
MDT...

At 412 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms 11
miles east of Conrad. The storms were nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Minor
         damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ledger.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If you are on or near any area lakes, be prepared to get out of the
water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can
strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to
safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4820 11114 4813 11135 4813 11140 4811 11141
      4801 11168 4828 11191 4838 11161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 321DEG 4KT 4824 11171

RCG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
420 PM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

MTZ011-013-047-092300-
Chouteau MT-Hill MT-Blaine MT-
420 PM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FERGUS...CENTRAL
BLAINE...CENTRAL HILL AND NORTHEASTERN CHOUTEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM
MDT...

At 418 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms over
portions of Blaine, Chouteau, and Hill Counties. Movement was south
southeast at 10 mph

HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Minor
         damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Havre, Chinook, Big Sandy, Harlem, Parker School, Beaver Creek,
Azure, Agency, St. Pierre, Gildford, Sangrey, Boneau, Fort Belknap,
Box Elder, Hingham, Rudyard, Rocky Boy, Cleveland, Zurich and
Kenilworth.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 338 and 445.
 Highway 87 between mile markers 57 and 111.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If you are on or near any area lakes, be prepared to get out of the
water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can
strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to
safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4844 10842 4826 10841 4805 10867 4774 10938
      4800 11051 4825 11070 4885 11061 4865 10980
      4859 10893 4852 10834 4844 10835
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 350DEG 15KT 4856 10853 4841 10888 4829 10966
4833 11044

RCG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
459 PM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

MTZ011-013-047-092345-
Chouteau MT-Hill MT-Blaine MT-
459 PM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FERGUS...SOUTHWESTERN
BLAINE...SOUTHERN HILL AND NORTHEASTERN CHOUTEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 545
PM MDT...

At 457 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
clustered around the Bear's Paw Mountains. Movement was southeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Minor
         damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Big Sandy, Azure, Parker School, Agency, St. Pierre, Sangrey, Boneau,
Box Elder, Rocky Boy, Laredo, Kenilworth, Lloyd, Judith Landing,
Iliad and Virgelle.

This includes Highway 87 between mile markers 58 and 101.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If you are on or near any area lakes, be prepared to get out of the
water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can
strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to
safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4772 10894 4775 10892 4781 10898 4778 10913
      4780 10927 4772 10943 4774 10967 4770 10973
      4772 10982 4766 10984 4763 11017 4812 11055
      4824 11072 4854 11072 4837 10922 4781 10889
      4774 10890 4773 10890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 329DEG 21KT 4803 10906 4807 10977 4816 11026

RCG