Alert archive / Montana / Special Weather Statements in 2021

Special Weather Statement, NWS Great Falls, MT

July 9, 2021Teton County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this special weather statement at Jul 9, 2021, 8:53 AM MDT for Teton County, Montana. It was in force for 52 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 9, 2021, 8:53 AM MDT (14:53 UTC)
Expired
Jul 9, 2021, 9:45 AM MDT
In force
52 min
Issued by
NWS Great Falls, MT

County Teton County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 135 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Great_falls, MT at 12:00Z on 2021-07-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 34 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Great_falls, MT at 12:00Z on 2021-07-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -47 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
34 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-410 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1971 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-47 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-52 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 9, 7:29 AM MDT, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 7:29 AM MDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
729 AM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021

.UPDATE...

Updated PoPs to help make them a little less precise to make sure
all areas that could see a shower or thunderstorm actually
reflects that in the grids and point-and-click forecasts given the
15 percent threshold needed to trigger the mention of such. Also
raised winds for Sunday across the region, which may require
evaluation as to whether a Fire Weather Watch is needed for some
fire districts.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather disturbance will move from west to east across the
region today, resulting in a few thunderstorms. Some of the storms
could be strong once again in the Lewistown area. Otherwise, warm
afternoon temperatures are expected today, however expect hot
temperatures over the weekend, along with mostly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
400 AM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021 (09/12Z TAF period)

VFR conditions currently over the region will give way to some MVFR
conditions in/near thunderstorms by late this morning and during
the afternoon hours today. The thunderstorms will generally move
from west to east through the region today. Any storms should be
short at the terminals, generally lasting less than 30 minutes.
Also, expect a surface wind shift to the north for a few hours.
Otherwise, VFR conditions return across the region this evening.
Mountains passes could be obscured at times by storms. Also, smoke
could reduce distant visibility at times for locations along the
divide, mostly this morning. Brusda

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 359 AM MDT Fri Jul 9 2021/
Today thru Sunday...The main concern today is an upper level
disturbance moving from west to east across the region.
Thunderstorms could develop this morning over North Central MT,
with a chance for a few strong storms, mostly east/south of
Lewistown this afternoon. There is a low probability that a
stronger storm could develop in the Havre area. The storms exit
the area early this evening, with mostly dry/hot temperatures
expected over the region this weekend. Additionally, areas of
smoke could affect locations near the divide this morning.

Monday thru Friday...Overall, expect summer like temperatures for
all of next week. The main concern is the potential for an upper
level disturbance to move through the region on Tuesday. The GFS
has higher probabilities for wetter conditions over Central MT.
This solution seems to have fairly low probability, thus rather a
scattered shower seems more likely. Thus pops are only slight
chance to chance for now. As we move towards next weekend, an
upper level ridge will try to rebuild over the area, resulting in
the warm/hot temperatures along with little/no precipitation.
Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  52  97  54 /  30   0   0   0
CTB  83  51  93  53 /  40   0   0   0
HLN  89  56  98  60 /  40   0   0   0
BZN  88  49  94  53 /  30  10   0   0
WYS  83  37  86  41 /   0   0   0   0
DLN  87  49  92  53 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  86  56  94  59 /  30  20   0   0
LWT  80  52  90  58 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 9, 7:29 AM MDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 9, 7:37 AM MDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 9, 8:19 AM MDT, 34 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 9, 8:41 AM MDT, 12 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 9, 8:53 AM MDT, 0 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 9, 8:19 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXTeton41 min
Jul 9, 8:41 AM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXTeton49 min
Jul 9, 12:22 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXLewis and Clark23 min
Jul 9, 12:34 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXLewis and Clark41 min
Jul 9, 12:52 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXLewis and Clark23 min
Jul 9, 1:03 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXMeagher27 min
Jul 9, 1:12 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXLewis and Clark33 min
Jul 9, 1:31 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBlaine29 min
Jul 9, 1:42 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBroadwater33 min
Jul 9, 1:55 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBlaine35 min
Jul 9, 1:59 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXCascade31 min
Jul 9, 2:05 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXGlacier25 min
Jul 9, 2:16 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXPondera29 min
Jul 9, 2:21 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBroadwater24 min
Jul 9, 2:28 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBlaine32 min
Jul 9, 2:44 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXPondera31 min
Jul 9, 2:46 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBlaine29 min
Jul 9, 2:51 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXGlacier24 min
Jul 9, 3:11 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBlaine, Hill34 min
Jul 9, 3:17 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXPondera28 min
Jul 9, 3:18 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXGlacier27 min
Jul 9, 3:40 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXCascade35 min
Jul 9, 3:48 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXPondera27 min
Jul 9, 3:52 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBlaine, Hill38 min
Jul 9, 4:14 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXPondera31 min
Jul 9, 4:20 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXBlaine, Hill40 min
Jul 9, 4:59 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFXChouteau46 min
Jul 9, 5:43 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementTFX32 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Montana, 2021Every special weather statement in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.