Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
226 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Mid level troughing stretches from the western Gulf coast to the
central eastern seaboard while ridging extends across FL and the
eastern Gulf from the Atlantic through Wed. At the surface broad
Atlantic high pressure reaches west to the Gulf with an axis
meandering near Lake Okeechobee. The atmosphere is moist with model
PWAT values around 2 inches and above. A 5 to 10 knot 1000-700MB
flow is southerly to southwesterly...from south to north...this
afternoon then becomes southwesterly to westerly Wed.

Ample moisture...daytime heating...and sea breeze boundaries will
support showers and thunderstorms through Wed. currently there
are isolated showers/storms right along the coast and these will
push inland...propelled along by the sea breeze and increase in
coverage throughout the afternoon...staying mainly inland.
However can not rule out a rogue storm or two drifting back toward
the coast on outflow boundaries. The showers and storms will wind
down around sunset...with the loss of daytime heating. Wed will
be somewhat similar...however a more southwest to west steering
flow will be in place with late night coastal convection that
shifts onshore during the morning then moves inland with increased
coverage in the afternoon.

Thu through next Tue: Mid level ridging initially over the Gulf
region re-locates westward as the eastern seaboard trough slips out
over the Atlantic and deepens southward...to near the Bahamas...by
Fri and continues during the weekend. This troughiness lifts
northward early next week and allows ridging aloft to become re-
established across the entire Gulf region. Atlantic high pressure
continues to stretch west to the Gulf of Mexico through next
week. It's axis extends across south FL until the weekend when it
shifts to south of the Florida Keys as a frontal boundary moves to
just north of the state. This boundary shifts back north
Mon...allowing the high pressure to slide back into FL.

A moist airmass prevails with showers and thunderstorms...isolated
to scattered but occasionally numerous. Through the weekend a
westerly flow pattern will be in effect with coastal morning
convection that shifts inland in the afternoon. Then starting next
a southeasterly pattern sets up with afternoon and evening
convection mainly over the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
20/18Z TAFs. TSRA/SHRA with FEW-SCT CB and PSBL MVFR/LCL IFR TIL 22-
03z. Light mostly S winds become SW to W AOB 08KT by 20Z. This flow
will tend to push convection eastward although a rogue TSRA may
drift back toward the coast late afternoon. Anticipate late night
coastal convection that could impact terminals AFT 14Z. Light
VRBL winds overnight become S in the morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Atlantic high pressure stretches across the waters with an axis that
meanders over the south half of the state through the end of the
week. The high slips south during the weekend with an axis near the
Florida Keys. Winds and seas remain below 15 knots/3 feet although
higher in and near showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The atmosphere remains moist...precluding any low RH concerns and
supporting showers and thunderstorms that may become numerous at
times.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  91  80  94 /  10  40   0  20
FMY  76  92  78  94 /  20  40   0  30
GIF  75  93  76  94 /  40  70  10  40
SRQ  78  90  78  92 /  10  30   0  20
BKV  73  91  74  92 /  10  50   0  30
SPG  80  90  81  91 /  10  30   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude
DECISION SUPPORT...42/Norman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
424 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

FLZ057-202100-
Highlands-
424 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY...

At 423 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were located near Basinger,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brighton and Cornwell.

LAT...LON 2721 8116 2712 8117 2712 8127 2710 8127
      2709 8128 2715 8134 2741 8113 2738 8111
      2738 8107 2736 8103 2734 8105 2730 8103
      2729 8100 2726 8100 2725 8098 2723 8098
      2721 8094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 215DEG 20KT 2730 8103

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
612 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

FLZ056-202300-
Hardee-
612 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HARDEE
COUNTY...

At 612 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered near Wauchula,
moving north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wauchula, Sweetwater and Zolfo Springs.

LAT...LON 2734 8173 2739 8193 2765 8175 2764 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 200DEG 13KT 2753 8173

TBW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
655 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

FLZ043-249-202345-
Inland Pasco FL-Sumter FL-
655 PM EDT Tue Jul 20 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER AND
NORTHEASTERN PASCO COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 654 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Dade City, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Zephyrhills, Tarrytown, Richland and The Green Swamp.

LAT...LON 2848 8210 2848 8206 2852 8206 2853 8207
      2861 8203 2858 8195 2831 8196 2831 8199
      2832 8200 2832 8202 2831 8206 2827 8206
      2827 8220
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 206DEG 14KT 2836 8204

TBW