Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
239 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to stream across the northern two-
thirds of our area as some upper level energy, coupled with ample
moisture and instability, continues to support this trend. Some of
the convection has been producing winds between 40-50mph, and the
tropical nature of the downpours has also been causing localized
flooding, primarily in urban areas. CAMs continue to support this
trend for a couple more hours before conditions start to wind
down later this evening.

West southwest flow should continue through tomorrow with the ridge
axis to our south and overspreading Cuba and South Florida. The
ridge starts to loose is grip as Elsa approaches, and a lighter and
less well-defined flow sets up for Monday. This favors more typical
convection for Monday, with the seabreezes as the driving forces.

Beyond Monday, conditions begin to be much more readily influenced
by TS Elsa. There's still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast,
given the rapid motion the system has now, and then the land
interaction that may take place with Cuba. Even so, there is an
increasing risk of tropical storm conditions over the southern
portion of the FL peninsula on Tuesday and the spreading northward
along the peninsula through Wednesday. Please continue to monitor
the forecast and the latest forecast from the National Hurricane
Center for additional information.

Once Elsa exits the region, more typical summertime conditions
return. WSW flow may return briefly as Elsa pulls away, but as the
ridge builds back in, ESE flow looks to set back up, bringing with
it the more typical afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
across the region, and otherwise typical summertime weather once
again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty showers and thunderstorms remain an issue for northern TAF
sites as a highly favorable environment remains for convection with
a WSW flow pattern. The expectation is that this should start to
wind down as the evening draws to a close, but storms may again be
possible overnight with WSW flow. Southern terminals appear to be
mostly spared from this, although it's not impossible that storms
could drift into the vicinity of terminals until the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty showers and thunderstorms remain across the northern half of
our coastal waters through the afternoon and into the evening with
west southwest flow continuing. Southwest flow continues through
tomorrow before a little bit lighter flow sets up on Monday,
favoring storms mostly over the interior. Conditions start to
deteriorate across coastal waters beginning as early as Monday night
and lasting through mid week as Elsa approaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue for the
next couple days. Looking to mid-week, Tropical Storm Elsa
approaches. Fire weather concerns are low through the forecast
period.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  87  79  90  77 / 100  20  30  10
FMY  90  77  93  77 /  30  10  20  10
GIF  86  75  91  75 / 100  20  40  10
SRQ  88  78  89  76 /  90  10  20  10
BKV  85  74  89  72 / 100  20  30  20
SPG  85  79  88  79 / 100  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

Flannery

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