Special Marine Warning 80, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
239 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to stream across the northern two-
thirds of our area as some upper level energy, coupled with ample
moisture and instability, continues to support this trend. Some of
the convection has been producing winds between 40-50mph, and the
tropical nature of the downpours has also been causing localized
flooding, primarily in urban areas. CAMs continue to support this
trend for a couple more hours before conditions start to wind
down later this evening.

West southwest flow should continue through tomorrow with the ridge
axis to our south and overspreading Cuba and South Florida. The
ridge starts to loose is grip as Elsa approaches, and a lighter and
less well-defined flow sets up for Monday. This favors more typical
convection for Monday, with the seabreezes as the driving forces.

Beyond Monday, conditions begin to be much more readily influenced
by TS Elsa. There's still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast,
given the rapid motion the system has now, and then the land
interaction that may take place with Cuba. Even so, there is an
increasing risk of tropical storm conditions over the southern
portion of the FL peninsula on Tuesday and the spreading northward
along the peninsula through Wednesday. Please continue to monitor
the forecast and the latest forecast from the National Hurricane
Center for additional information.

Once Elsa exits the region, more typical summertime conditions
return. WSW flow may return briefly as Elsa pulls away, but as the
ridge builds back in, ESE flow looks to set back up, bringing with
it the more typical afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
across the region, and otherwise typical summertime weather once
again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty showers and thunderstorms remain an issue for northern TAF
sites as a highly favorable environment remains for convection with
a WSW flow pattern. The expectation is that this should start to
wind down as the evening draws to a close, but storms may again be
possible overnight with WSW flow. Southern terminals appear to be
mostly spared from this, although it's not impossible that storms
could drift into the vicinity of terminals until the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty showers and thunderstorms remain across the northern half of
our coastal waters through the afternoon and into the evening with
west southwest flow continuing. Southwest flow continues through
tomorrow before a little bit lighter flow sets up on Monday,
favoring storms mostly over the interior. Conditions start to
deteriorate across coastal waters beginning as early as Monday night
and lasting through mid week as Elsa approaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue for the
next couple days. Looking to mid-week, Tropical Storm Elsa
approaches. Fire weather concerns are low through the forecast
period.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  87  79  90  77 / 100  20  30  10
FMY  90  77  93  77 /  30  10  20  10
GIF  86  75  91  75 / 100  20  40  10
SRQ  88  78  89  76 /  90  10  20  10
BKV  85  74  89  72 / 100  20  30  20
SPG  85  79  88  79 / 100  20  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

Flannery

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
254 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021

FLZ050-151-031945-
Coastal Hillsborough FL-Pinellas FL-
254 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PINELLAS AND CENTRAL
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms over
Clearwater, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Tampa, Clearwater, Largo, Pinellas Park, Temple Terrace, St.
Petersburg, South Highpoint, Palm River-Clair Mel, Tampa
International Airport, Macdill Air Force Base, East Lake-Orient Park,
Gandy, Egypt Lake-Leto, Feather Sound, Harbor Bluffs, Palm Harbor,
Ridgecrest, Greater Carrollwood, Citrus Park and East Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2809 8280 2803 8236 2799 8234 2797 8234
      2776 8240 2792 8286
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 284DEG 21KT 2799 8275

TBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
259 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NNE BELLEAIR          27.96N 82.80W
07/03/2021  M42 MPH          PINELLAS           FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 0579W 1.9 NE BELLEAIR
            (WEATHERSTEM).

&&

JCM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
312 PM EDT SAT JUL 3 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNW BELLEAIR          27.98N 82.83W
07/03/2021  M40 MPH          GMZ853             FL   BUOY

            BUOY STATION CWBF1 CLEARWATER BEACH PIER 60.

&&

JCM