Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
740 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.AVIATION...
07/12Z TAFs. A couple of bands of showers/storms...from Tropical
Storm Elsa will rotate across the terminals through this morning
with robust winds and MVFR/ ISOLD IFR VSBY/CIGS. Prevailing VFR
returns for the afternoon with VCNTY SHRA TIL 00-01Z. Winds
diminish for the overnight hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 320 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Elsa continues moving north off the west Florida coast producing a
large swath of rain and a few embedded storms overspreading most of
west central and southwest Florida with gusty winds in the
heaviest convective bands, with storm surge potential for coastal
areas. Elsa will move ashore over the northern Nature Coast later
this morning before gradually accelerating northeast away from
the region into Thursday. High pressure back into the region
through the weekend and persists through the remainder of the
forecast period with a typical summer pattern consisting of
seabreeze showers and storms returning.

For today, overall trend will be for area of widespread showers and
embedded storms to gradually lift northward, however a band of
persistent rain will likely setup over a swath of the forecast
area producing locally heavy rainfall with increased flooding
potential for affected areas. A few brief tornadoes also cannot be
ruled out with storms moving across the region. Storm surge
concerns remain for areas along the coast as winds become onshore,
with the greatest threat area near and to the east of where Elsa
makes landfall. Please refer to the latest watches, warnings and
advisories, as a Tornado and Flood watch remains in effect for
inland areas, and Tropical Storm and Storm Surge warnings remain
in effect for marine, coastal, and some inland locations.

Improving conditions expected Thursday into next week with seabreeze
showers and storms returning as temperatures climb back into the
upper 80s to lower 90s. West to southwest winds linger in the wake
of Elsa on Thursday before gradually becoming easterly into the
weekend then continuing into next week.

MARINE...
Hazardous conditions expected to continue across the eastern gulf
waters today as Elsa moves north. Tropical storm force winds,
rough seas, heavy downpours, thunderstorms and waterspouts remain
possible before Elsa moves ashore and begins to lift out of the
region later today into Thursday. Winds and seas begin to subside
late in the week as a more typical summertime pattern returns.

FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards concerns expected for the next several days
as relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  86  78  90  78 /  60  50  40  10
FMY  89  77  92  76 /  70  20  50  10
GIF  85  75  90  75 /  90  40  70  10
SRQ  87  77  90  77 /  60  40  30  10
BKV  85  74  88  73 /  80  50  50  10
SPG  85  78  88  79 /  60  50  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Inland
     Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Pinellas-
     Sumter.

     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Levy.

Gulf waters...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

AVIATION...09/Rude
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
712 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 SE CEDAR KEY          29.14N 83.03W
07/07/2021                   LEVY               FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 1057W 0.8 SE CEDAR KEY
            (WEATHERSTEM) REPORTED A 56 MPH WIND GUST.

0642 AM     TROPICAL STORM   1 SSE CEDAR KEY         29.14N 83.03W
07/07/2021                   GMZ850             FL   BUOY

            BUOY STATION CKYF1 CEDAR KEY, FL REPORTED A
            57 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
831 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 AM     FLOOD            4 NNE MYAKKA CITY       27.41N 82.13W
07/07/2021                   MANATEE            FL   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            STORMWATER ENGINEERING DIVISION MANAGER REPORTED FLOODING
            ON WACHULA ROAD AT LONG CREEK BRIDGE...SOUTH OF 73RD AVE
            EAST

&&

NICOLE.CARLISLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
847 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 ENE BRANDON           27.94N 82.27W
07/07/2021                   HILLSBOROUGH       FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORTED MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE BRANDON AND
            CARROLLWOOD AREA. TIME AND LOCATION ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

NICOLE.CARLISLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
858 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLOOD            3 WSW NORTH PORT        27.04N 82.24W
07/07/2021                   SARASOTA           FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING IN NORTH PORT.
            REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT AND MEDIA.

&&

NICOLE.CARLISLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1030 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TROPICAL STORM   23 SW LONGBOAT KEY      27.17N 82.92W
07/06/2021                   GMZ873             FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 42013 23 SW LONGBOAT KEY
            REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH WITH A
            WIND GUST TO 65 MPH.

&&