Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
320 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Elsa continues moving north off the west Florida coast producing a
large swath of rain and a few embedded storms overspreading most of
west central and southwest Florida with gusty winds in the
heaviest convective bands, with storm surge potential for coastal
areas. Elsa will move ashore over the northern Nature Coast later
this morning before gradually accelerating northeast away from
the region into Thursday. High pressure back into the region
through the weekend and persists through the remainder of the
forecast period with a typical summer pattern consisting of
seabreeze showers and storms returning.

For today, overall trend will be for area of widespread showers and
embedded storms to gradually lift northward, however a band of
persistent rain will likely setup over a swath of the forecast
area producing locally heavy rainfall with increased flooding
potential for affected areas. A few brief tornadoes also cannot be
ruled out with storms moving across the region. Storm surge
concerns remain for areas along the coast as winds become onshore,
with the greatest threat area near and to the east of where Elsa
makes landfall. Please refer to the latest watches, warnings and
advisories, as a Tornado and Flood watch remains in effect for
inland areas, and Tropical Storm and Storm Surge warnings remain
in effect for marine, coastal, and some inland locations.

Improving conditions expected Thursday into next week with seabreeze
showers and storms returning as temperatures climb back into the
upper 80s to lower 90s. West to southwest winds linger in the wake
of Elsa on Thursday before gradually becoming easterly into the
weekend then continuing into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Bands of showers and isolated storms with tropical storm force winds
and low visibilities will continue to pass through the area into the
early morning hours. MVFR/IFR visibilities and ceilings are expected
in the heavier rain bands. As Elsa passes north of the Tampa Bay
area terminals later this morning, winds will subside through the
day, although periods of gusty showers and southeast winds will
persist with occasional flight category disruptions expected in the
heavier showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous conditions expected to continue across the eastern gulf
waters today as Elsa moves north. Tropical storm force winds,
rough seas, heavy downpours, thunderstorms and waterspouts remain
possible before Elsa moves ashore and begins to lift out of the
region later today into Thursday. Winds and seas begin to subside
late in the week as a more typical summertime pattern returns.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards concerns expected for the next several days
as relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  86  78  90  78 /  60  50  40  10
FMY  89  77  92  76 /  70  20  50  10
GIF  85  75  90  75 /  90  40  70  10
SRQ  87  77  90  77 /  60  40  30  10
BKV  85  74  88  73 /  80  50  50  10
SPG  85  78  88  79 /  60  50  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Storm Surge Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Citrus-Coastal
     Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Lee-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Inland Charlotte-Inland Citrus-
     Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Levy-
     Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-Sumter.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Pinellas.

     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island
     Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60
     NM.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
     Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
AVIATION...Fleming
DECISION SUPPORT...Delerme/Hubbard

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1225 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     TROPICAL STORM   1 E BASKIN              27.89N 82.79W
07/06/2021                   PINELLAS           FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 0503W 1.2 SW LARGO
            (WEATHERSTEM) REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42
            MPH.

1132 PM     TROPICAL STORM   7 NW PALMETTO           27.60N 82.65W
07/06/2021                   GMZ830             FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XSKY SKYWAY FISHING PIER
            REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH.

1136 PM     TROPICAL STORM   6 E SAINT PETERSBURG    27.77N 82.57W
07/06/2021                   GMZ830             FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XTAM TAMPA BAY CUT J
            REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH.

1142 PM     TROPICAL STORM   3 NW DUNEDIN            28.06N 82.81W
07/06/2021                   PINELLAS           FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XDUN DUNEDIN CAUSEWAY
            REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH.

1145 PM     TROPICAL STORM   TREASURE ISLAND         27.77N 82.76W
07/06/2021                   PINELLAS           FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW1958 TREASURE ISLAND
            REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH.

1146 PM     TROPICAL STORM   2 NNE BELLEAIR          27.96N 82.80W
07/06/2021                   PINELLAS           FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW8592 SEMINOLE REPORTED A
            WIND GUST OF 43 MPH.

1153 PM     TROPICAL STORM   2 ENE SAINT PETERSBURG  27.77N 82.63W
07/06/2021                   PINELLAS           FL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KSPG ST PETERS ALBERT REPORTED
            A WIND GUST OF 49 MPH.

1154 PM     TROPICAL STORM   4 NNW BELLEAIR          27.99N 82.83W
07/06/2021                   PINELLAS           FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW1789 CLEARWATER BEACH
            REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
100 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 AM     TROPICAL STORM   4 NNW BELLEAIR          27.99N 82.83W
07/07/2021                   PINELLAS           FL   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW1789 CLEARWATER BEACH
            REPORTED WINDS OF 59 MPH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
102 AM EDT WED JUL 7 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1253 AM     TROPICAL STORM   2 ENE SAINT PETERSBURG  27.77N 82.63W
07/07/2021                   PINELLAS           FL   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KSPG ST PETERS ALBERT REPORTED
            52 MPH WINDS.

&&