Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
851 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.UPDATE...

A few showers and thunderstorms are still ongoing across the area
with gusty winds and lightning the primary threats. This activity
should continue to diminish over the next couple of hours, and a
quiet night is in store for the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [723 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

Convection got off to a somewhat late start this afternoon. This
"delay" was likely because of subsidence induced by surface high
pressure over the region, in conjunction with a swath of notable mid-
level dry air cutting across the eastern third of the forecast area.
The seabreeze is still apparent along the Panhandle and Nature Coast
and isolated cells have developed along/near those boundaries.
Expect shower/storm activity to increase in coverage through the
afternoon hours and slowly push westward under light easterly
steering flow. There is potential for a couple storms to be strong,
capable of producing frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty
winds. Otherwise, another hot August day is ongoing, with widespread
temperatures mainly in the low 90s observed as of ~2pm ET.

Inland convection diminishes after sunset from the loss of daytime
heating, but the lower I-75 corridor and southeast Big Bend may see
some showers/storms arrive this evening from the Atlantic seabreeze.
Muggy conditions and light/variable winds are expected tonight into
tomorrow morning (lows in the 70s). A similar convective pattern
likely unfolds on Thursday, with maritime cells prior to and after
sunrise, followed by coastal initiation off the seabreeze and
additional activity resulting from mesoscale boundaries. High
temperatures are forecast to be in the low-mid 90s. Heat indices
will exceed 100, though some isolated locations may briefly see
values approach advisory levels.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]...

Status quo summer weather is forecast, with scattered afternoon
thunderstorms by day, then firing up over the Gulf at night.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

Tropical Storm Fred will be the main concern. Fred is forecast to
pass through the Straits of Florida and arrive in the southeast
Gulf on Saturday, then move into the northeast Gulf on Sunday. The
official NHC track forecast cone encompasses our entire service
area, meaning it is likely that the center will cross some part of
the forecast area. The NHC forecast depicts Fred as a mid-high end
tropical storm over the NE Gulf, though intensity is always a
problematic forecast issue, and this situation is no different.

Impacts such as wind, surge, and flooding rains are likely over
some part of the forecast area. Freshwater flooding from rain is
especially concerning this time due to the fact that rivers such
as the Steinhatchee and Suwanee will already be in flood when
Fred's rains arrive. See Hydrology section for more thoughts.

The effects of Fred should be in the process of diminishing by
Monday afternoon. Tuesday and next Wednesday feature the
subtropical ridge axis filling back in near our latitude, meaning
a return to the typical rhythm of daily thunderstorms.

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Friday]

Mainly VFR conditions are expected outside showers and
thunderstorms. Some patchy fog and low ceilings will be possible
tonight, but confidence is too low to include for now.

.MARINE...

Light and gentle breezes will prevail over the waters through
Friday as a high pressure ridge axis noses in from the Atlantic
and across the Panhandle. The ridge will lift northward a bit on
Friday night and Saturday. Tropical Storm Fred is forecast to
enter the southeast Gulf on Saturday and move into the northeast
Gulf on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the
waters beginning as soon as Saturday night, but are more likely to
begin sometime on Sunday. Weather will start to improve on
Monday, but it will take days for sea conditions on the Gulf to
improve.

.FIRE WEATHER...

The main fire weather concern through Friday will be
erratic and gusty winds near scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Otherwise, dispersion index values will remain low on Thursday
afternoon due to weak transport winds. Dispersion will improve a
bit on Friday.

.HYDROLOGY...

The Steinhatchee River is still in Moderate Flood this afternoon
but may fall into the Minor Flood category on Thursday. However,
it is expected to continue in flood for the foreseeable future.

Minor flooding has begun on the Suwanee at Rock Bluff, and other
Suwanee points are expected to reach minor flood later this week
as upstream flood waters get routed downstream.

The prospect of rainfall from Tropical Storm Fred is concerning,
especially considering the Steinhatchee and Suwanee will be in
flood as the rains from Fred arrive. Current QPF from Sunday
through Tuesday is in the 2-3 inch range over the SE Big Bend.
This should be viewed as preliminary, since this will depend
heavily on the track, forward motion, and structure of the storm.
Elsewhere, other rivers will be at risk for flooding depending on
storm track.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  94  75  95  74 /  20  50  20  40  20
Panama City   76  91  76  93  76 /  10  60  20  50  40
Dothan        73  92  73  93  74 /  30  60  30  50  40
Albany        75  94  75  96  74 /  20  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      73  94  73  94  73 /  30  40  30  30  10
Cross City    74  93  73  93  74 /  30  40  30  30  20
Apalachicola  77  90  77  90  76 /  20  50  30  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Merrifield
NEAR TERM...IG
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM...Haner
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
550 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

ALZ065-068-069-FLZ007-009-011-112330-
Coffee AL-Geneva AL-Houston AL-Holmes FL-Jackson FL-North Walton FL-
550 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of south central Coffee,
Geneva, south central Houston, northwestern Jackson, northeastern
Walton and northern Holmes Counties through 630 PM CDT...

At 550 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Geneva to 8 miles
southwest of Hartford to near Graceville. Movement was west at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Graceville, Geneva, Hartford, Slocomb, Samson, Esto, Campbellton,
Coffee Springs, Noma, Black, Kellys Crossroads, Southern Junction,
Logan Field Municipal A/P, Merritts Crossroads, Izagora, New Hope,
Noma Junction, Miller Crossroads, Spears and Pera.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3128 8610 3108 8546 3095 8540 3089 8574
      3087 8611
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 107DEG 7KT 3111 8594 3100 8576 3101 8552

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

11-MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
655 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

ALZ065-120045-
Coffee AL-
655 PM CDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COFFEE COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elba, moving north at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elba, New Brockton, Lee, Pine Level, Chestnut Grove, Richburg,
Curtis, Carl Folsom A/p, Victoria, Danleys Crossroads, Lowry Mill,
Wilkinstown, Zoar, Camp Humming Hills, Newby, Wise Mill, Arcus,
Woodland Grove Church, Bluff Spring and Jack.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8619 3153 8616 3154 8616 3154 8614
      3162 8615 3162 8591 3138 8593 3134 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 166DEG 18KT 3149 8613

72-BUNKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
810 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

FLZ029-034-120115-
Inland Dixie FL-Lafayette FL-
810 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE AND NORTHERN
DIXIE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 810 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Bell, moving west at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cross City, Shamrock, Cross City Airport, Old Town, Guaranto Springs,
Fletcher Springs, Hines, Jonesboro, Grady, Hatch Bend, Eugene,
Fletcher, San Pedro Junction and Fanning Springs.

LAT...LON 2983 8289 2981 8293 2980 8292 2976 8295
      2972 8294 2972 8296 2970 8294 2970 8296
      2961 8297 2958 8295 2959 8294 2957 8295
      2967 8332 2969 8333 3004 8325 2996 8293
      2989 8292 2988 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 100DEG 12KT 2972 8291

72-BUNKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
909 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

FLZ029-034-134-120200-
Coastal Dixie FL-Inland Dixie FL-Lafayette FL-
909 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LAFAYETTE AND DIXIE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

At 908 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cross City, moving west at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mayo, Cross City, Suwannee, Shamrock, Cross City Airport, Shired
Island, Old Town, Guaranto Springs, Hines, Grady, Hatch Bend, Eugene,
Fletcher, Yellow Jacket, San Pedro Junction and Fanning Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3004 8327 3006 8305 2999 8296 2996 8295
      2996 8293 2989 8292 2988 8288 2976 8295
      2970 8294 2970 8295 2961 8297 2958 8295
      2954 8298 2947 8298 2943 8302 2940 8302
      2937 8307 2935 8306 2929 8318 2929 8324
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 090DEG 11KT 2965 8308

72-BUNKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
950 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

FLZ028-029-034-128-134-120215-
Coastal Dixie FL-Inland Taylor FL-Inland Dixie FL-Coastal Taylor FL-
Lafayette FL-
950 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Lafayette, Dixie and
southeastern Taylor Counties through 1015 PM EDT...

At 950 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Mayo to 21 miles southwest of Fowlers
Bluff. Movement was northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mayo, Cross City, Steinhatchee, Horseshoe Point, Suwannee, Horseshoe
Beach, Tennille, Shamrock, Clara, Cross City Airport, Shired Island,
Old Town, Jonesboro, Hatch Bend, Salem, San Pedro Junction, Cooks
Hammock, Howell Place, Guaranto Springs and Carbur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2936 8329 2946 8346 2960 8349 2962 8352
      3010 8349 3009 8310 2999 8296 2989 8292
      2988 8288 2976 8295 2970 8294 2970 8296
      2961 8297 2958 8295 2954 8298 2947 8298
      2937 8307 2935 8306 2929 8317 2929 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 114DEG 13KT 3003 8322 2913 8322

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

72-BUNKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1019 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

FLZ028-029-034-128-134-120300-
Coastal Dixie FL-Inland Taylor FL-Inland Dixie FL-Coastal Taylor FL-
Lafayette FL-
1019 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Lafayette, Dixie and
eastern Taylor Counties through 1100 PM EDT...

At 1019 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Cross City, moving west at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Mayo, Perry, Cross City, Steinhatchee, Horseshoe Point, Suwannee,
Horseshoe Beach, Pinland, Tennille, Shamrock, Jug Island, Clara,
Cross City Airport, Shired Island, Old Town, Buckville, Dekle Beach,
Jonesboro, Jack Lee Island and Hatch Bend.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2929 8325 2936 8329 2946 8346 2960 8349
      2968 8363 2976 8368 3020 8362 3019 8325
      3010 8321 3008 8307 2989 8292 2988 8288
      2976 8295 2958 8295 2959 8294 2947 8298
      2935 8306 2930 8316 2929 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0219Z 105DEG 27KT 2968 8322

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

55-SCHOLL