Special Marine Warning 267, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
409 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Friday]...

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will support deep, moist
convection through this evening. The Atlantic seabreeze has been a
late evening arrival along the I-75 corridor for the last two
evenings, and that is certainly possible again this evening.

Most guidance lessens convective coverage tomorrow over the FL Big
Bend, while keeping seabreeze convection firing off in the afternoon
from Apalachicola westward.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Night Through Saturday Night]...

A diurnally driven, summertime pattern encompasses the short term,
with the highest rain chances shifting from our marine areas
(overnight and morning) to inland locations (midday and early
evening). Storms will continue to pose a lightning, heavy rain, and
gusty wind threat, and marginally severe convection cannot be ruled
out. The seabreeze and outflow boundaries are expected to be the
main convective initiators over land. Deep tropical moisture should
be on the increase towards the end of the period from Fred likely
entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm. Therefore,
the highest PoPs are justifiably over our waters, along the coast
and Big Bend Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. Aside
from convection, expect hot and humid conditions, consisting of high
temperatures in the low-mid 90s (heat indices above 100), and muggy
lows in the low-mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Attention turns to Fred in the beginning of the long term. The
official 2pm ET NHC forecast calls for Fred to be located somewhere
between east-central Gulf and along the west coast of FL on Sunday.
A NW-NNW motion is then expected before potentially making landfall
somewhere along the Panhandle or Big Bend early Monday morning. The
current disorganized nature of Fred makes the forecast low
confidence as models typically struggle with weak systems. Assuming
Fred re-organizes over the next 12-24 hours, we should have a better
idea of its track and intensity projections. Regardless, it
appears that heavy rain and gusty winds are the general threats to
look out for. The former is particularly concerning for the
southeast Big Bend, which continues to reel from significant
flooding from last week's rainfall. That region has the potential
to receive amounts in excess of 3" from Sunday morning through
Tuesday afternoon. These values are of course, highly track
dependent, so they will be subject to change in future forecasts.
Conditions improve once Fred lifts north on Tuesday.

A return to more typical summertime weather is in store for the
remainder of the period as a ridge builds back in over the area.
High temperatures should crawl back into the low-mid 90s, while lows
stay in low-mid 70s. Heat indices are poised to be a factor once
again, but look to stay below advisory levels (108 degrees), outside
of possibly isolated locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

Strong thunderstorms have erupted early this afternoon between TLH
and ECP. Thunder will spread in the direction of DHN. At VLD, the
Atlantic seabreeze has brought evening thunder the last two
evenings, and this may be another one of those evenings.

&&

.MARINE...

Favorable boating conditions continue outside of thunderstorms
through Friday before Fred likely enters the eastern Gulf this
weekend as a tropical storm. Long-period swells generated by Fred
should increase seas to advisory levels, especially in Apalachee
Bay. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning as early as
Sunday and persisting through Monday. The forecast is subject to
change in subsequent updates as it is highly dependent on Fred's
track and intensity. Winds and seas look to slowly improve on
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Expect erratic and gusty winds around afternoon and evening
thunderstorms through Saturday. Otherwise, no hazardous fire weather
conditions are expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The Areal Flood Warning for Dixie and Southern Lafayette Counties
will be allowed to expire at 5pm ET as conditions are slowly
improving. However, any moderate to heavy rainfall from summertime
storms over the next couple days will only exacerbate/prolong the
flooding situation.

In terms of rivers, Steinhatchee (US-19) and Suwannee - Rock Bluff
are forecast to remain in minor flood stage until further notice.
The former is expected to fall very slowly over the next several
days, while the latter will steadily rise. Elsewhere in the Suwannee
basin, Manatee Springs should enter minor flood stage Friday
afternoon, while a Flood Warning for Wilcox (US-19) is likely by
this evening if current trends hold.

Diurnal, summertime convection drives the rainfall amounts through
the early weekend, before Fred becomes the primary rainmaker into
early next week. As such, there is the potential for renewed flood
concerns, especially in the southeast Big Bend, but will be
track-dependent. Current estimates along the coastal and inland
Big Bend are 2-4" (isolated higher amounts) from Saturday morning
through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  96  75  95  74 /  20  30  10  40  40
Panama City   76  93  76  93  75 /  20  50  20  40  50
Dothan        73  93  74  94  73 /  20  40  20  50  20
Albany        75  95  75  95  75 /  20  30  10  30  20
Valdosta      73  93  72  92  72 /  20  30  10  50  30
Cross City    73  93  74  90  73 /  30  30  10  70  40
Apalachicola  76  89  76  90  76 /  30  30  20  40  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM...IG3
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...IG3

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