Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
355 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday Night]...

Typical summer weather will continue, with the daily rhythm of
showers and thunderstorms.

The subtropical surface ridge axis will extend inland from the
Atlantic across the Florida Panhandle, with weak east to southeast
steering flow. PW values in the 1.8-2 inch range will provide
plenty of moisture for deep moist convection. Bulk shear values of
10 knots or less will mainly support single-cell pulse storms with
gusty downdraft winds.

Currently, there is a cluster of storms over the Apalachicola
National Forest, and another cluster centered up near Columbus,
Georgia. The area between these two clusters should fill in with
storms over the next few hours, drifting west across southeast
Alabama early this evening. Later this evening, the Atlantic
seabreeze may bring a round of storms past the I-75 corridor,
before dissipation occurs during the early overnight hours.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

After a status quo Friday, our attention will turn to the effects
of the tropical system that is forecast to arrive near Florida or
over the eastern Gulf this weekend. Potential Tropical Cyclone 6
was located over the far northeast Caribbean Sea this afternoon
and is forecast to become a tropical storm late today or tonight.
An abundance of guidance brings the storm to the eastern Gulf this
weekend, and the official NHC forecast track cone encompasses
nearly our entire stretch of Panhandle and Big Bend coast. There
are lots of questions about what kind of shape the system will be
in. One of the factors will be if the storm has an over-water
track through the Straits of Florida, or whether it must first
traverse some of the FL Peninsula before arriving in the Gulf.
Obviously, details will come into focus over the next few days.
For now, the message is simply one of preparedness. The period of
highest impact appears to be around Sunday and/or Monday.
Regardless of strength, a main concern will be with rainfall
potential, especially in light of the flooding that is still
ongoing over the SE Big Bend after heavy rain last week.

By Tuesday, the question will be how quickly the system exits.
There is a mixed signal in guidance, with some lifting the system
out, while some pieces of guidance notably hang the storm up over
the Southeast U.S.. That would have an impact on flood potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Afternoon thunderstorms are currently observed in the vicinity of
TLH, and thunderstorms will fill in over the next few hours near
ECP, DHN, and ABY. Meanwhile, VLD may have to wait for arrival of
the Atlantic seabreeze around or after sunset to see thunder.

&&

.MARINE...

The main concern for the rest of this week will
continue to be erratic and gusty winds near afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Low dispersion values are forecast over
inland areas on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons due to weak
trasnsport winds. Otherwise, a seasonably moist and unstable air
mass will persist, with afternoon seabreezes near the coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The main concern for the rest of this week will
continue to be erratic and gusty winds near afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms. Low dispersion values are forecast over
inland areas on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons due to weak
transport winds. Otherwise, a seasonably moist and unstable air
mass will persist, with afternoon seabreezes near the coast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The Steinhatchee River near Cross City has been slowly receding
since early Sunday but remains in moderate flood. This river is a
slow responder, so it will likely take the entirety of this week
to finally drop below flood stage.

On the Lower Suwanee River, river levels will rise for the rest
of this week as large quantities of water route down from the
Withlacoochee, Upper Suwanee, and the Santa Fe Rivers. Rock Bluff
is expected to rise through flood stage this afternoon, and a
Flood Warning is in effect there. Points near Branford and Bell
are also likely to reach flood later this week, and Wilcox bears
watching.

Otherwise, slow movement of scattered afternoon thunderstorms means
there will be small pockets for each of the next few days with
heavy rain. This could bring small areas of localized runoff
issues, particularly over our Florida counties.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  93  74  94  74 /  30  60  20  50  20
Panama City   76  91  76  91  76 /  30  50  20  40  20
Dothan        73  93  74  92  73 /  50  50  20  50  20
Albany        74  94  75  95  75 /  20  50  10  40  10
Valdosta      73  93  74  93  73 /  30  40  20  30  10
Cross City    74  91  74  92  73 /  40  40  30  40  20
Apalachicola  77  88  77  89  77 /  20  50  20  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM...Haner
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
459 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

FLZ011-016-GAZ155-156-102130-
Gadsden FL-Jackson FL-Decatur GA-Seminole GA-
459 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Jackson, north central Gadsden, Decatur and Seminole Counties through
530 PM EDT/430 PM CDT/...

At 458 PM EDT/358 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles north of Chattahoochee, or 15 miles south of
Donalsonville, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bainbridge, Donalsonville, West Bainbridge, Chattahoochee, Malone,
Sneads, Greenwood, Attapulgus, Iron City, Brinson, Bascom, Hanover,
Ausmac, Reynoldsville, Little Hope, Recovery, Decatur Co A/P,
Lovedale, Jinks and Dellwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3107 8461 3077 8442 3070 8454 3069 8496
      3095 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 168DEG 19KT 3082 8481

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
405 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

ALZ066-067-102145-
Dale AL-Henry AL-
405 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Dale
and Henry Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 405 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Abbeville, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Headland, Midland City, Pinckard, Kinsey, Grimes,
Newville, Napier Field, Bells Crossroads, Tumbleton, Kirkland
Crossroads, Grandberry Crossroads, Snells Crossroads, Graball,
Headland Municipal A/P, Dancey, Balkum, Sylvan Grove, Echo and
Hardwickburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3163 8508 3131 8523 3131 8542 3130 8542
      3131 8556 3162 8548 3162 8542 3166 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 017DEG 17KT 3155 8531

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
506 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ123-125-127-142>146-102130-
Worth GA-Miller GA-Colquitt GA-Baker GA-Dougherty GA-Mitchell GA-
Calhoun GA-Early GA-
506 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Miller,
Dougherty, northern Mitchell, Baker, Calhoun and northeastern Early
Counties in southwestern Georgia, northwestern Colquitt and
southwestern Worth Counties in south central Georgia through 530 PM
EDT...

At 505 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Putney, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Morgan, Sylvester, Putney, Camilla, Albany, Arlington,
Baconton, Doerun, Leary, East Albany, Marine Corps Logistics Base,
Walker, Douglasville, Funston, Sale City, Damascus, Iveys Mill,
Radium Springs and Sylvester Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3158 8382 3117 8384 3122 8475 3160 8471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 092DEG 8KT 3146 8414

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
517 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

FLZ010-012-013-112-102145-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-Washington FL-
517 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Bay,
west central Calhoun and southeastern Washington Counties in the
Panhandle of Florida through 545 PM EDT/445 PM CDT/...

At 516 PM EDT/416 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles east of Lynn Haven, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lynn Haven, Nixon, Bayhead, Southport, Fountain, Singer Road, Recota
Beach, College Station, Saunders, Bayou George, Greenhead, Camp
Flowers, Gainer Spring, Bennett, Youngstown, Cairo, Porter Lake,
Brannonville, Vicksburg and Majette.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8527 3016 8545 3031 8582 3061 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 114DEG 10KT 3028 8549

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
534 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

GAZ123-125-127-142>146-156>158-102200-
Worth GA-Miller GA-Decatur GA-Colquitt GA-Baker GA-Dougherty GA-
Mitchell GA-Calhoun GA-Grady GA-Early GA-Thomas GA-
534 PM EDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Decatur, northern Grady, eastern Miller, southern Dougherty,
Mitchell, Baker and southeastern Calhoun Counties in southwestern
Georgia, northwestern Thomas County in south central Georgia,
northeastern Early County in southwestern Georgia, western Colquitt
and southwestern Worth Counties in south central Georgia through 600
PM EDT...

At 534 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Newton, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Colquitt, Newton, Pelham, Putney, Camilla, Moultrie, Arlington,
Baconton, Doerun, Riverside, Douglasville, Schley, Funston, Sale
City, Damascus, Minton, Iveys Mill, Anderson City, Parkerville and
Harrells Still.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3139 8380 3104 8381 3099 8432 3101 8473
      3143 8477 3151 8408
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 043DEG 18KT 3132 8429

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
447 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

FLZ010-011-102215-
Jackson FL-Washington FL-
447 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Jackson and
northeastern Washington Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marianna, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chipley, Marianna, Graceville, Cottondale, Greenwood, Alford,
Campbellton, Bascom, Richter Crossroads, Jacob City, Chipley
Municipal Airport, Kynesville, Steele City, Cottondale Airport,
Jacobs, Browntown, Chipola Terrace, Bahoma, Sunny Hills and
Ellaville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3093 8507 3065 8529 3070 8561 3099 8549
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 107DEG 13KT 3077 8535

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

KR