Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
810 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

.UPDATE...

No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary.

&&

.AVIATION...

[Through 00z Wednesday] Isolated convection across the region will
diminish this evening with VFR conditions expected to prevail.
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the area again for Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [318 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday]...

Summertime pattern continues for Tuesday with isolated slow-moving
showers and thunderstorms possible across the area in the
afternoon. Showers and storms are most likely along and south of
the I-10 corridor with the seabreeze but may spread inland
throughout the late afternoon. Gusty winds will be the primary
threat with any storms. High temperatures are forecast in the low
to mid 90s tomorrow afternoon with heat indicies potentially
reaching the 100-105 degree range. Patchy fog will be possible
both tonight and tomorrow night, particularly in areas that
receive rainfall.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night]...

A typical summer pattern stays in place over the CWA. Isolated
seabreeze storms are expected with a possibility for downbursts
embedded due to the dry air aloft. Storms will also pop up along
colliding outflow boundaries from previous storms. High pressure
over the Gulf is allowing for light surface winds and therefore
little steering flow for these storms. Highs will be in the low to
mid 90s with dew points and low temperatures in the low to mid
70s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The seabreeze pattern will continue late into the week when the
upper-level high will begin to move away from the area, bringing a
bit more moisture to the mid-levels. At the same time, troughing
will begin to develop across the area as deeper tropical moisture
moves in and increases shower and thunderstorm coverage late in
the weekend into early next week. Possible development of Invest
94L in the tropics bears watching and makes the tail end of the
long term period more uncertain. It is too soon to know what, if
any, impacts this system would bring to our region. High
temperatures will remain in the 90s each day, with increased
humidity causing heat indices to rise to near 105F.

.MARINE...

Tranquil boating conditions are expected to persist through the
weekend and much of the upcoming work week. As always thunderstorms
across the waters can create locally enhanced winds and waves.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A seasonably moist and unstable air mass will continue this week.
Dispersion values will remain low over parts of South Georgia this
afternoon due to light transport winds. There are currently no
fire weather concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...

The Steinhatchee River near Cross City has been slowly receding
since early Sunday but remains in moderate flood. This river is a
slow responder, so it will likely take the entirety of this week
to finally drop below flood stage.

On the Lower Suwanee River, river levels will rise for the rest
of this week as large quantities of water route down from the
Withlacoochee, Upper Suwanee, and the Santa Fe Rivers. Rock Bluff
is expected to rise through flood stage on Tuesday, so a Flood
Warning is already in effect there. Points near Branford and Bell
are also likely to reach flood in the second half of this week,
and Wilcox bears watching.

Otherwise, slow movement of scattered afternoon thunderstorms means
there will be small pockets for each of the next few days with
heavy rain. This could bring small areas of localized runoff
issues, particularly over our Florida counties.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  94  74  93  74 /  20  40  20  40  20
Panama City   77  92  76  91  76 /  10  50  20  50  20
Dothan        74  94  74  92  73 /  20  40  20  50  20
Albany        75  94  75  94  75 /  20  40  20  40  20
Valdosta      73  92  74  92  73 /  20  40  20  40  10
Cross City    74  92  74  92  74 /  30  40  20  40  20
Apalachicola  77  89  76  89  76 /  10  40  30  50  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...DVD
NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Helock/Merrifield
LONG TERM...Helock/Merrifield
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
523 PM EDT MON AUG 9 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             2 E CHULA               31.55N 83.51W
08/09/2021  E0.25 INCH       TIFT               GA   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT OF PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
432 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

FLZ010-092200-
Washington FL-
432 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Washington
County through 500 PM CDT...

At 432 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Vernon. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Vernon, Holmes Valley, Smyrna and Sylvania.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3057 8562 3045 8576 3053 8586 3072 8574
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 131DEG 1KT 3056 8576

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
833 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

FLZ029-100115-
Lafayette FL-
833 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Lafayette County
through 915 PM EDT...

At 833 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Luraville to 14 miles northwest of Bell.
Movement was northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mayo, Townsend, Buckville, Cooks Hammock, San Pedro Junction and
Alton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2982 8335 2989 8335 2989 8337 3016 8337
      3018 8324 3017 8323 3015 8324 3014 8323
      3011 8323 3010 8318 3011 8316 3008 8307
      2982 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 124DEG 9KT 3010 8313 2984 8308

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
737 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

ALZ065-066-100100-
Dale AL-Coffee AL-
737 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Dale
and northeastern Coffee Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 736 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Ariton, or 10 miles south of Brundidge. This storm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Rucker, Ariton, Java, Roeton, Chestnut Grove, Greater Salem
Church, Clowers Crossroads, Victoria, Frisco, Eanon, Hwy 231 Pea
River Bridge and Rocky Head.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8568 3154 8568 3144 8584 3156 8599
      3162 8595
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 220DEG 4KT 3157 8585

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
758 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

ALZ065-066-100130-
Dale AL-Coffee AL-
758 PM CDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Dale
and northeastern Coffee Counties through 830 PM CDT...

At 758 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Ariton, or 10 miles south of Brundidge. This storm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Rucker, New Brockton, Ariton, Java, Chestnut Grove, Mixons
Crossroads, Greater Salem Church, Victoria, Frisco, Eanon, Rocky
Head, Clintonville, Roeton, Tabernacle, Camp Alaflo Bsa, Clowers
Crossroads, Dillard and Hwy 231 Pea River Bridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8566 3161 8564 3142 8576 3135 8596
      3162 8594
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 205DEG 2KT 3157 8585

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
900 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

FLZ019-100130-
Madison FL-
900 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Madison
County through 930 PM EDT...

At 900 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Madison, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Lee, Hamburg, Hanson, Moseley Hall and Hopewell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3037 8319 3035 8319 3035 8321 3033 8321
      3032 8322 3033 8365 3060 8352 3053 8324
      3047 8324 3046 8322 3042 8322 3041 8321
      3041 8319 3039 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 111DEG 9KT 3046 8341

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

42-DVD