Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
305 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]...

Thunderstorm activity this afternoon was focused on two convergent
boundaries. One stretching across the I-75 corridor into Georgia and
another extending from the south-central GA into central AL. These
boundaries will slowly shift south and west through the remainder of
the afternoon driven largely by convective outflow boundaries.
Addition development is possible across our coastal regions as the
seabreeze continues to develop and mature. Some interactions with
southward moving outflow boundaries could also spur the additional
development of storms along the coastal regions. Much of the
activity over land should diminish by later this evening with storm
activity moving over the water for the overnight period.

For Saturday, much drier mid-level air will be advected in from the
north as the upper level ridge to our west continues to slowly move
west. The low level mean flow will be out of the east and northeast
tomorrow, and with much of the better moisture off to the west,
expect the best chance for showers and storms to be across our
Panhandle counties and into SE Alabama with only isolated storms
expected elsewhere. Due to the lower rain chances, expect warmer
temperatures into the mid 90s. Similar to this afternoon, hot temps
will mean high indices of at least 105 for much of the area,
possibly into heat advisory criteria of 108.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night Through Sunday Night]...

Ridging aloft will build into the region during the short term
period and mid level winds will switch around from the northwest
to the northeast. This will allow significantly drier air to
filter over our area with PWATs down towards 1.2 inches as
compared to over 2 inches the past few days. Rain chances Sunday
and Sunday night will be well below climo averages with 20-30%
Sunday so expecting isolated coverage Sunday. Highs will reach the
mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s. Along with the drier air, heat
indices won't be quite as high with readings around 100 degrees.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Monday will continue the drier than average regime with high
pressure aloft but as the week goes on it will lose its hold over
the southeast. PWATs will increase towards mid/late week with a
return of higher rain chances beginning Tuesday. The anticipated
cloud cover and rain chances will keep highs in the lower 90s and
lows in the mid 70s. Heat indices will be around 100 degrees each
day.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Outside of scattered showers and thunderstorms today, which could
bring brief IFR/MVFR conditions and gusty winds, VFR conditions
will prevail. MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible tomorrow morning
across ABY and VLD, but have not put much mention of this in the
TAF yet due to low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside of thunderstorms, favorable marine conditions will exist
through the middle of next week. Light to moderate northeast winds
this weekend will turn to the southeast and south early next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moist conditions as of late will keep most fire weather concerns low
through the weekend. Only concern will be higher dispersions through
the next few days due to elevated northeast transport winds. Only
isolated showers and storms are possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

No river flooding is forecast. Localized flooding of poor drainage
areas is possible over the next couple of days in areas that get
training of thunderstorms. Generally widespread amounts of an inch
or less is expected over the next few days but training and slower
moving storms could exceed those amounts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  95  72  95  74 /  40  30  10  20  10
Panama City   77  92  75  93  76 /  40  40  10  20  10
Dothan        74  93  72  93  73 /  30  30  10  20   0
Albany        74  94  71  94  73 /  20  20   0  10   0
Valdosta      72  95  70  93  72 /  30  20   0  20   0
Cross City    74  94  72  93  74 /  50  30  10  30  20
Apalachicola  77  89  76  90  78 /  50  40  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Wakulla-
     Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Wakulla-
     Liberty.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Scholl

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
417 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

GAZ125>127-232100-
Worth GA-Lee GA-Dougherty GA-
417 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DOUGHERTY...LEE AND
NORTHWESTERN WORTH COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 417 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Leesburg, moving south at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Leesburg, Albany, East Albany, Marine Corps Logistics Base, Turner
City, Stocks, Forrester, Sylvester Airport, South Albany, Palmyra,
Century, Jordan Place, Red Rock, Starksville, Byne Crossroads, Acree,
Scrutchins, Neyami, Philema and Mossy Dell.

LAT...LON 3188 8426 3186 8397 3154 8388 3155 8425
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 354DEG 21KT 3175 8409

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
418 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

GAZ145-156-157-232100-
Decatur GA-Mitchell GA-Grady GA-
418 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DECATUR...NORTHERN
GRADY AND SOUTHWESTERN MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 418 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Pelham, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cairo, Whigham, Vada, Akridge, Peoples Still, Spence, Capel, Elpino,
Hopeful, Branchville and Harrells Still.

LAT...LON 3104 8412 3097 8412 3094 8410 3092 8408
      3091 8408 3083 8441 3117 8447 3117 8446
      3118 8445 3124 8427
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 329DEG 16KT 3111 8434

42-DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
420 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW SPARKS            31.18N 83.47W
07/23/2021                   COOK               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON ROUNTREE BRIDGE ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
431 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW COOL SPRING       31.24N 83.63W
07/23/2021                   COLQUITT           GA   PUBLIC

            LARGE TRUCK TRAILER BLEW OVER IN STRONG
            WINDS NEAR JR SUBER ROAD AND ELLENTON NORMAN
            ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
436 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW MOULTRIE MUNICIPAL 31.09N 83.81W
07/23/2021                   COLQUITT           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE AMOUNT OF WATER OVER LEE LEWIS ROAD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
444 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

FLZ016>018-GAZ157-158-232130-
Gadsden FL-Inland Jefferson FL-Leon FL-Grady GA-Thomas GA-
444 PM EDT Fri Jul 23 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GADSDEN...
NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN LEON...GRADY AND SOUTHWESTERN
THOMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Whigham, or near Cairo, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello, Cairo, Havana, Thomasville, Tallahassee, Whigham, Alma,
Capel, Darsey, Scotland, Rocky Hill, Miccosukee, Iamonia, Drifton,
Calvary, Casa Blanco, Princes Still, Nickleville, Forest Meadows Park
and Pisgah Church.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3048 8376 3054 8439 3055 8445 3066 8439
      3069 8440 3069 8438 3090 8438 3101 8412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 320DEG 16KT 3089 8427

42-DVD