Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
142 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Restrictions are likely in SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and evening,
with the earliest onset at ECP around 19z, roughly 20-21z at TLH
and VLD, and finally 21-22z at ABY and DHN. Otherwise, VFR. Some
storms could have wind gusts in excess of 40 kts at ECP, TLH, and
VLD. Otherwise, westerly winds 5-10 knots, but southerly at ECP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1100 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Strong clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop by early
afternoon, with strong gusty winds being the main threat. SPC has
outlooked a Marginal Risk for severe weather today along and south
of a Dothan-to-Tifton line.

An upper trough is currently digging into the Tennessee Valley.
Modest upper height falls will extend all the way south into the
forecast area, combining with a hot and muggy low-level air mass to
generate moderate convective instability this afternoon. Deep-layer
shear will be in the 20-25 knot range, characterized by a veering
wind profile under northwest flow aloft. This will support multi-
cell storm clusters.

So daytime convection will first develop by early afternoon along
the seabreeze front over our Florida counties. Later in the
afternoon, a weak cold front will move south out of Central Alabama
and Central Georgia, adding a focus over our inland areas for
further development. As the front moves south tonight, the main
focus for storms by late this evening will move south into the Gulf
and into the SE Big Bend region.

Guidance shows a good bit of dry air above 10,000 feet, which is not
surprising with NW flow aloft. The availability of dry air for
entrainment into thunderstorm downdrafts will enhance gust potential
above a "normal" summer day. The Wet Microburst Severity Index
(WMSI) --- which worked well at identifying severe potential this
past Saturday --- is forecast to be at values today that will
support severe thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...

Impulses rounding the base of a mean upper trough crawling off
Atlantic coast are going to help sag a weak surface front across the
southeast US. A north-south moisture gradient will exist on both
sides of the boundary, while also serving as focus for convection.
The best chances for showers and storms are on Wednesday and reside
along/south of I-10 (including offshore), closest to the front and
where the seabreeze will provide another mechanism for convective
development. Additional cells may also form from mesoscale
boundary collisions. Forecast soundings at Tallahassee, Panama
City, and Cross City depict moist/unstable profiles, with
inverted-V shapes and cool/dry air aloft. These parameters favor
robust storms capable of producing gusty/strong winds, frequent
lightning, pockets of heavy rain, and small hail. Little to no
rain is expected elsewhere thanks to the presence of a relatively
drier air column.

A greater coverage of dry air filters into the area by Thursday as
the aforementioned front further sags south and a ridge builds in
the wake of the departing trough. As a result, only up to slight
chance PoPs exist for mainly the Big Bend, our marine areas, and
portions of the Panhandle. High temperatures are forecast to be
mostly be in the low-mid 90s, with lows in the upper 60s-low 70s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

Moisture quickly rebounds across the area late-week thanks to a
tropical disturbance slowly marching northward from the Bay of
Campeche. This system has a high chance (70%) of development over
the next 5 days as of the 2am EDT Outlook by NHC. Global models
agree on a slow northward motion, but maintains a disorganized,
asymmetric structure as it approaches the Gulf coast this weekend.
Regardless of formation, general expectations are for a wet
pattern and hazardous marine/beach conditions (i.e., high seas,
rough surf) to unfold. The latter are discussed further in the
Hydrology and Marine sections below.

Rain chances increase from northeast to southwest beginning on
Friday and steadily become more widespread through the remainder of
the period. Precipitation potential/coverage will obviously hinge on
the tropical system's evolution, so changes to the forecast in
subsequent packages are anticipated as confidence grows. The likely
persistent rainfall and cloud cover should allow high temperatures
to fall below 90 from the weekend, onward, while lows remain in the
low-mid 70s.

.MARINE...

Boating conditions are forecast to be at or near cautionary levels
through mid-week, with thunderstorms remaining the primary marine
concern over the next couple days. As we approach the weekend,
advisory level seas are expected to affect our waters from long-
period swells generated by a tropical disturbance in the Bay of
Campeche. This system has a high chance of developing into a
Depression over the next 5 days as it slowly tracks north over the
western Gulf. Regardless of formation, it will be a hazardous end
of the of the period for mariners.

.FIRE WEATHER...

The main concern today will be the development of gusty and shifty
winds near strong afternoon thunderstorms. The thunderstorm gust
potential will be greater than on a typical summer day. Storms will
first develop over the Florida districts during the early afternoon,
with development spreading inland into southeast Alabama and
southern Georgia later in the afternoon.

Otherwise today, dispersion index values well in excess of 75 are
expected over our Georgia districts north of a line from Blakely to
Camilla to Tifton. This area will experience a deeply mixed layer
and transport winds at or above 10 mph.

Drier air behind a weak cold front will spread into the Alabama and
Georgia districts on Wednesday, with a drying trend on daytime
relative humidity compared with today.

.HYDROLOGY...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of producing pockets of
heavy rainfall areawide are expected today, while we see convective
coverage more confined to along/south of I-10 tomorrow. Thursday
should be the driest of the period, before a wet pattern takes shape
heading into the weekend as a tropical disturbance threatens the
Gulf coast.

Current 7-Day QPF amounts are 2-4" (isolated 5-7") from east to
west. The majority of these accumulations will likely be over the
weekend thanks to the tropical disturbance in the Gulf, but some
areas may see localized heavy rain from storms during the work-week.
The combination of antecedent wet conditions with the anticipated
uptick in precipitation may raise flood concerns in the coming days.
Local rivers and streams are in good shape at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   93  73  92  70  93 /  60  50  40  10  10
Panama City   88  78  87  74  89 /  40  30  40  10  10
Dothan        94  69  91  67  91 /  20  20  10   0  10
Albany        97  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  10   0  10
Valdosta      94  72  93  69  93 /  50  50  30  10  10
Cross City    90  75  89  72  88 /  50  40  50  50  30
Apalachicola  88  77  88  74  86 /  50  30  40  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM...IG3
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...IG3

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
326 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

FLZ027-127-152015-
Coastal Wakulla FL-Inland Wakulla FL-
326 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAKULLA COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
EDT...

At 326 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crawfordville, moving east at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Marks, Crawfordville, Woodville, Wakulla, Sopchoppy, Newport,
Shadeville, Wakulla Springs, Panacea, Smith Creek, Medart, Buckhorn,
Bethel, Liveoak Island, Curtis Mill, Hyde Park, Panacea-Wakulla
Airport, Arran, Hilliardville and Sanborn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3000 8446 2998 8452 3000 8452 3003 8459
      3009 8465 3022 8468 3025 8471 3026 8474
      3029 8473 3030 8471 3030 8425 3027 8424
      3027 8408 3010 8408 3010 8405 3003 8405
      2999 8426 2997 8429 2996 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 262DEG 11KT 3014 8444

42-DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE YOUNGSTOWN         30.34N 85.40W
06/15/2021  M59 MPH          BAY                FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS MEASURED WIND GUST OF 59 MPH
            NEAR YOUNGSTOWN.

&&

RH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
351 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

FLZ012>015-026-112-114-152030-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Franklin FL-Liberty FL-Inland Bay FL-
Calhoun FL-Inland Gulf FL-Coastal Gulf FL-
351 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GULF...SOUTHEASTERN BAY AND
SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY AND NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN BIG BEND
OF FLORIDA UNTIL 430 PM EDT/330 PM CDT/...

At 351 PM EDT/251 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 14 miles northeast of
Callaway to 13 miles northeast of Port St. Joe. These storms were
nearly stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lynn Haven, Callaway, Port St. Joe, Mexico Beach, Stonemill Creek,
Tyndall Air Force Base, Wewahitchka, Honeyville, Allanton, Chipola
Cutoff, College Station, Bayou George, Camp Flowers, Beverly,
Overstreet, Milltown, Youngstown, Davis Beach, Kinard and
Brannonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2998 8549 3028 8564 3048 8533 2989 8485
      2982 8502 2981 8502 2980 8503 2977 8510
      2978 8511 2976 8513 2971 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 238DEG 3KT 3028 8540 2990 8509

42-DVD