Special Marine Warning 133, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
400 PM EDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.NEAR TERM [Tonight and Wednesday]...

Numerous strong and isolated severe thunderstorms were ongoing as
of late afternoon south of I-10 in the western FL Panhandle and
Big Bend. Northwest flow aloft has pinned the northward advancing
sea-breeze boundary closer to the coast, resulting in an axis of
impressive convergence, within an environment characterized by
Precipitable Water values near 2.0 inches and Surface Based CAPE
around 5k J/Kg! Storms continue to develop along this convergence
axis and advance slowly southeast. With Downdraft CAPE near 1k
J/kg and steep lapse rates (0-3 km), the primary threat continues
to be isolated wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. But any storm
this evening would be capable of 40 mph wind gusts. Marginal
to isolated large hail associated with the more robust updrafts
is also possible, with mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 C/km. Last
but certainly not least, there could be isolated, mainly
nuisance-type flooding of urban and rural areas of poor drainage
where storms train along the boundary. Showers and thunderstorms
are expected to diminish by midnight.

On Wednesday, the northwest flow aloft continues, but there is
less support for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Thus,
expect typical sea breeze-type convection given the flow regime,
with PoPs ranging from 30-50 pct from just north of Valdosta to
just southeast of Defuniak Springs, the highest of which will
be in the FL Big Bend. A couple of strong storms are still
possible with 40+ mph wind gusts given ample Downdraft CAPE
nearby.

Temperatures will be near seasonal levels tonight and Wednesday.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Thursday Night]...

The highly amplified pattern at upper levels at the start of the
period will evolve during this time as the eastern trough moves off
the East Coast and the western ridge flattens and extends eastward.
The front to our north today will be stalled over our region during
this period. Drier air to its north will largely suppress convection
to our coastal FL Big Bend zones. It will be hot, but areas north of
a Panama City to Tallahassee to Valdosta line will see much lower
humidity levels on Thursday. Meanwhile, the area of disturbed
weather in the Bay of Campeche may develop into a tropical cyclone
late in the period.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The forecast for this period will be highly dependent on the
potential tropical system lifting northward across the Gulf of
Mexico. While it is still to early for details, climatology and a
preponderance of the models favor a landfall over the northwestern
gulf states (Upper Texas or Louisiana) sometime this weekend. More
eastward solutions are also still in play and the nature of the
system may result in impacts being felt well east of the center.
Other than marine impacts, the biggest impact locally appears to be
the heavy rain threat as the remnant system tracks northeastward
across the Southeast U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Restrictions are likely in SHRA/TSRA this afternoon and evening,
with the earliest onset at ECP around 19z, roughly 20-21z at TLH
and VLD, and finally 21-22z at ABY and DHN. Otherwise, VFR. Some
storms could have wind gusts in excess of 40 kts at ECP, TLH, and
VLD. Otherwise, westerly winds 5-10 knots, but southerly at ECP.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate west to southwest winds will produce cautionary winds
through tonight. After somewhat of a lull period, winds will pick up
out of the south well east of a potential tropical system. Winds
will reach cautionary levels and possibly small craft advisory
levels on Friday across our western marine legs, with those elevated
winds and building seas persisting through the weekend and
eventually spreading east. Surf heights along the coast are forecast
to build to advisory levels for the weekend, especially west of Cape
San Blas. This will result in a prolonged period of high rip current
risk.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

It will be dry by summer standards north of a front on Thursday with
high dispersion across Madison and northern Jefferson County. After
that we will enter a period of increasing moisture with potential
impacts from a tropical system late in the week and this weekend
that will bring a chance for heavy rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Current forecasts show 5+ inches of rain across the FL Panhandle
west of Panama City over the next 7 days, mainly associated with the
tropical system. MMEFS shows potential minor flooding on the
Choctawhatchee River at Caryville with rivers to the east reaching
action stage. There is still a lot of time for these numbers to
change.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  91  70  93  71 /  50  50  10  10  10
Panama City   76  88  74  89  75 /  30  30  10  10  10
Dothan        68  91  67  91  69 /  20  10   0  10  10
Albany        71  94  69  94  70 /  20  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      72  92  69  93  70 /  50  40  10  10  10
Cross City    74  89  72  88  72 /  40  50  50  30  20
Apalachicola  76  87  74  86  75 /  30  40  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Wool
LONG TERM...Wool
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Wool
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...Wool

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