Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1030 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

.UPDATE...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 4 PM EDT for Dixie
County and the adjacent coastal waters. Large hail is the main
threat. No changes from the forecast below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [707 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An upper level low will continue to lift northeast across the Great
Lakes region through tonight while a front associated with the
surface low pushes across the southeast during the near term. The
cold front this morning remains west of the CWA and was draped
across central AL and back into southern LA.

Another shortwave moving across the southeast today will help to
enhance convection across the region again this morning. Have
already started to see development across the Gulf waters and the FL
Panhandle. Activity will greatly increase over the next few hours
with the best chance for showers and thunderstorms across southern
portions of the FL Panhandle, the Big Bend and the marine area. Some
of these thunderstorms may be severe, with the greatest threats
being wind and hail, although a tornado is also possible. The severe
threat will decrease into the afternoon as the main complex of
storms sinks southward.

For tonight, a few light showers cannot be ruled out across the
eastern portion of the CWA for the first half of the night, however
overall chances are on the low side. The cold front will exit the
eastern portion of the CWA tonight.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

Dry conditions Monday/Monday Night with deep layer ridging in place.
The upper ridge flattens on Tuesday as a shortwave translates
eastward from the western to the central Gulf coast. This will bring
a slight chance for rain mainly across the Florida panhandle and
southeast Alabama by late in the day. Otherwise, dry conditions will
continue. Highs both days will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows
Monday night mainly in the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

A cold front will drop into the southeast CONUS on Wednesday. This
in conjunction with a shortwave over the northeast Gulf will bring
better chances for rain to the entire Tri-state region. We should
briefly dry out Thursday/Thursday night with the passage of the
front. Thereafter, deep layer moisture accompanying embedded impulses
in the zonal flow across the gulf coastal states will keep rain
chances in the forecast to finish out the extended period. Lows
will mostly be in the mid and upper 50s, with highs in the upper 70s
and lower 80s.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Monday]

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through the morning
generally near the ECP to TLH to VLD sites. Gusty winds will be
possible with these storms. The stronger activity will diminish
into the afternoon, although some showers could linger. Cigs and
vsbys will vary quite a bit through the morning with the
convective activity. Conditions will improve generally west to
east this afternoon as a front moves through today into tonight.

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will remain elevated today and tonight but will
return to tranquil boating conditions on Monday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from possible low daytime dispersion Monday, there
are no other fire weather concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...

After Saturday's rains, riverine flooding will take time to develop,
given the rainfall distribution. The Choctawhatchee, Chipola,
Apalachicola, and Lower Flint could all experience minor flooding in
the days ahead. Further east, the Ochlockonee River could reach
minor flooding should 4 inches of rain fall upstream of Leon County
after tomorrow. Other remaining basins in the region could rise into
the action category, but minor flooding is unlikely based on the
latest forecasts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  55  85  56  83 /  90  10   0   0  10
Panama City   75  56  81  60  79 /  90   0   0  10  20
Dothan        78  51  84  55  83 /  30   0   0   0  10
Albany        77  51  85  55  86 /  40   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      76  55  84  55  86 /  70  10   0   0  10
Cross City    75  60  84  55  85 / 100  10   0   0  10
Apalachicola  74  58  78  60  76 / 100   0   0   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...LF
NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
710 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

FLZ012-014-112-114-111200-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Bay FL-Inland Gulf FL-Coastal Gulf FL-
710 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GULF AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM EDT/700 AM CDT/...

At 709 AM EDT/609 AM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 12 miles southwest of Panama City, moving east at 35
mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City, Callaway, Springfield, Mexico Beach, Tyndall Air Force
Base, Wewahitchka, Parker, St Andrews State Park, Allanton, Magnolia
Beach, Beacon Beach, Bay Harbor, Overstreet, Biltmore Beach, Davis
Beach, Millville, Wetappo, Beacon Hill and Saint Joe Beach.

LAT...LON 3018 8520 2985 8522 2988 8539 3000 8560
      3016 8584
TIME...MOT...LOC 1109Z 270DEG 31KT 3003 8578

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
912 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

FLZ029-111400-
Lafayette FL-
912 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAFAYETTE COUNTY UNTIL 1000 AM
EDT...

At 912 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Mayo, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mayo, Townsend, Cooks Hammock, Grady, Hatch Bend, Buckville, San
Pedro Junction, Alton and Fletcher Springs.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM EDT for
Big Bend of Florida.

LAT...LON 2983 8289 2982 8335 2989 8335 2989 8337
      3015 8337 3014 8323 3010 8321 3010 8318
      3011 8316 3010 8312 3009 8311 3008 8307
      3001 8300 2999 8296 2996 8295 2996 8293
      2989 8292 2990 8290 2988 8289 2988 8288
TIME...MOT...LOC 1312Z 278DEG 28KT 2994 8333

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
955 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

GAZ157-111430-
Grady GA-
955 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GRADY COUNTY UNTIL 1030
AM EDT...

At 955 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Whigham, or 7 miles southwest of Cairo, moving east at 45 mph.

Pea to penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cairo, Whigham, Reno, Grady Co A/p, Princes Still, Pine Park,
Nickleville and Calvary.

LAT...LON 3099 8412 3097 8412 3092 8408 3088 8408
      3087 8407 3085 8408 3077 8408 3072 8438
      3088 8438
TIME...MOT...LOC 1355Z 250DEG 40KT 3081 8430

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1016 AM EDT SUN APR 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE GULF LAGOON BEACH 30.18N 85.78W
04/10/2021                   BAY                FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE FELL ON A HOME ON LAURIE AVE AND
            RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1019 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

GAZ158-111445-
Thomas GA-
1019 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN THOMAS COUNTY UNTIL 1045
AM EDT...

At 1019 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ochlocknee, or near Thomasville, moving east at 55 mph.

Pea to penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Thomasville, Ochlocknee, Pavo, Coolidge, Barwick, Thomasville
Municipal A/P, Dillon, Enon, Patten, Merrillville, Chastain,
Dawesville, Pasco and Hollis.

LAT...LON 3089 8374 3081 8407 3084 8408 3087 8407
      3088 8408 3092 8408 3097 8412 3099 8412
      3104 8398 3104 8380 3103 8379 3103 8378
      3104 8378 3104 8374
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 250DEG 49KT 3092 8403

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1048 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

GAZ146-158-159-111515-
Brooks GA-Colquitt GA-Thomas GA-
1048 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN THOMAS...
NORTHWESTERN BROOKS AND SOUTHEASTERN COLQUITT COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 AM
EDT...

At 1047 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pavo, or 10 miles south of Moultrie, moving east at 40 mph.

Pea to penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Moultrie, Pavo, Berlin, Ellenton, Barney, Moultrie Municipal A/P,
Autreyville, Enon, Murphy, Spence Airport, Reed Bingham State Park
and Hollis.

LAT...LON 3091 8380 3107 8388 3123 8351 3120 8351
      3118 8354 3115 8354 3114 8356 3111 8356
      3108 8358 3105 8354 3105 8350 3104 8349
      3103 8347 3099 8345
TIME...MOT...LOC 1447Z 248DEG 33KT 3102 8376

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