Special Marine Warning 71, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
251 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An upper level low will continue to lift northeast across the Great
Lakes region through tonight while a front associated with the
surface low pushes across the southeast during the near term. The
cold front this morning remains west of the CWA and was draped
across central AL and back into southern LA.

Another shortwave moving across the southeast today will help to
enhance convection across the region again this morning. Have
already started to see development across the Gulf waters and the FL
Panhandle. Activity will greatly increase over the next few hours
with the best chance for showers and thunderstorms across southern
portions of the FL Panhandle, the Big Bend and the marine area. Some
of these thunderstorms may be severe, with the greatest threats
being wind and hail, although a tornado is also possible. The severe
threat will decrease into the afternoon as the main complex of
storms sinks southward.

For tonight, a few light showers cannot be ruled out across the
eastern portion of the CWA for the first half of the night, however
overall chances are on the low side. The cold front will exit the
eastern portion of the CWA tonight.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday]...

Dry conditions Monday/Monday Night with deep layer ridging in place.
The upper ridge flattens on Tuesday as a shortwave translates
eastward from the western to the central Gulf coast. This will bring
a slight chance for rain mainly across the Florida panhandle and
southeast Alabama by late in the day. Otherwise, dry conditions will
continue. Highs both days will be in the lower to mid 80s with lows
Monday night mainly in the mid 50s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

A cold front will drop into the southeast CONUS on Wednesday. This
in conjunction with a shortwave over the northeast Gulf will bring
better chances for rain to the entire Tri-state region. We should
briefly dry out Thursday/Thursday night with the passage of the
front. Thereafter, deep layer moisture accompanying embedded impulses
in the zonal flow across the gulf coastal states will keep rain
chances in the forecast to finish out the extended period. Lows
will mostly be in the mid and upper 50s, with highs in the upper 70s
and lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Monday]

SHRA and TSRA is expected to develop this morning and impact the
ECP to TLH to VLD TAF sites. Scattered TSRA will end from west to
east generally by the afternoon, although an isolated storm around
the VLD will be possible into the afternoon. Gusty winds and even
hail will be possible with these thunderstorms. VFR conditions are
expected by late afternoon into tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds and seas will remain elevated today and tonight but will
return to tranquil boating conditions on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from possible low daytime dispersion Monday, there
are no other fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

After Saturday's rains, riverine flooding will take time to develop,
given the rainfall distribution. The Choctawhatchee, Chipola,
Apalachicola, and Lower Flint could all experience minor flooding in
the days ahead. Further east, the Ochlockonee River could reach
minor flooding should 4 inches of rain fall upstream of Leon County
after tomorrow. Other remaining basins in the region could rise into
the action category, but minor flooding is unlikely based on the
latest forecasts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   78  55  86  56  83 /  60  10   0   0  10
Panama City   76  57  81  60  79 /  50   0   0  10  20
Dothan        78  53  84  55  83 /  20   0   0   0  10
Albany        79  53  85  55  86 /  20  10   0   0  10
Valdosta      79  56  85  55  86 /  50  10   0   0  10
Cross City    77  57  85  55  85 /  80  10   0   0  10
Apalachicola  75  59  78  60  76 /  80  10   0   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey