Special Marine Warning 67, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
932 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

...THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...

Rain and thunderstorms arrived earlier this morning than hi-res
guidance forecast. Kept the earlier timing through this afternoon
based on radar trends. A tornado watch remains in effect for the
Florida Panhandle and Geneva and Houston Counties in SE AL until
10 AM CDT. Stratiform rain is stabilizing much of SE AL and SW GA
this morning. Potential for damaging straight-line winds and
isolated tornadoes will continue into this afternoon for the FL
Counties and Southernmost GA Counties.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [644 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A significant weather event is expected today across the southeast
as a squall line moves through the region. A low pressure system
centered over the Plains this morning will slowly lift northeast
towards the Great Lakes region through Sunday. A cold front
associated with this low is stretched across Arkansas to Texas this
morning and while it will move eastward through the day, it will
only approach the western portion of the CWA tomorrow morning.

A complex of storms is already moving across the deep south this
morning and is expected to reach southeast Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle around 12z. This will then march across the CWA through
the day, bringing the threat for severe weather to the region.
Southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle remain under an enhanced
risk for severe weather today while most of the remainder of the
region is in a slight risk. As the squall line moves through, the
main threat will be destructive winds with 70 mph - these winds can
cause significant damage. In addition a few tornadoes and hail will
be possible. Some locally heavy rainfall may lead to localized
flooding, particularly across the Florida Panhandle and portions of
southeast Alabama. While the main focus is the squall line for the
severe threat, isolated severe storms will be possible ahead of the
line this morning, even before 12z.

The squall line should traverse the area quickly today with the
severe threat diminishing by the late afternoon/early evening. Some
redevelopment of storms is expected during the second half of
tonight, mainly across the marine area and coastal regions of the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...

Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east during the day
on Sunday with the passage of a cold front. Pops will be tapered
from slight (20%) northwest to likely (60%) across the far
southeast Big Bend. Some of the storms may become strong to severe
across portions of the Florida Big Bend where there is a low-end
(Marginal) threat for locally damaging gusts and hail.

Deep layer ridging and a dry airmass filters into the region on
Monday in the wake of the front. With a dry airmass in place along
with abundant sunshine and nearly zonal flow aloft, daytime
temperatures are expected to be on the order of around 5 to 7
degrees warmer than Sunday's max temps.

Highs Sunday in the upper 70s to around 80 and mid 80s on
Monday. Lows Sunday night in the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

After a few dry days, another cold front will arrive and bring
a return of showers and thunderstorms to our area on Wednesday.
This may may stall in close proximity to our area keeping at
least low end rain chances in the forecast through the remainder
of the week. High temperatures during this period are expected to
be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Low temperatures will be from the
mid- upper 50s to low 60s.

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

Main focus of the TAFs today will be a squall line that will move
from west to east impacting DHN and ECP this morning and ABY, TLH
and VLD this afternoon. While TAFs indicate the most likely
timing of the TSRA, cannot rule out some TS behind the line with
the SHRA, however would not be as strong as the main line. Toward
the end of the TAF cycle we may see patchy dense fog with
MVFR/IFR cigs develop at some of the terminals. This will be
analyzed further after the passage of the squall line.

.MARINE...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until Sunday morning for all
but the nearshore Big Bend waters where cautionary conditions are
expected. Thereafter, winds and seas are expected to remain below
headline criteria.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Multiple rounds of wetting rain this weekend will preclude any
fire weather concerns.

.HYDROLOGY...

Several inches had fallen on Friday in our Florida Panhandle
coastal counties. Today a more widespread heavy rain event will
occur, suggesting flash flooding will be a concern. Areas most
prone to flash flooding in this will be urban areas of Southeast
Alabama, extreme Southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.
Especially areas that were affected by heavy rain on Friday.

Riverine flooding will take time to develop, given the
anticipated rainfall distribution. The Choctawhatchee, Chipola,
Apalachicola, and Lower Flint could all experience minor flooding
in the days ahead. Further east, the Ochlockonee River could reach
minor flooding should 4 inches of rain fall upstream of Leon
County. Other remaining basins in the region could rise into the
action category, but minor flooding is unlikely based on the
latest forecasts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  62  80  57  85 / 100  60  40  10   0
Panama City   73  65  77  60  81 / 100  40  30   0  10
Dothan        71  61  77  53  83 / 100  20  20   0   0
Albany        74  61  78  54  85 / 100  20  30   0   0
Valdosta      81  61  80  57  85 / 100  60  40  10   0
Cross City    80  63  79  59  85 / 100  80  60  10   0
Apalachicola  75  65  76  60  78 / 100  60  40  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Sunday for
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE...McD
NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1008 AM EDT SAT APR 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 AM     TSTM WND GST     GULF COAST STATE COLLEG 30.19N 85.72W
04/10/2021  M58 MPH          BAY                FL   MESONET

            GULF COAST STATE COLLEGE WEATHERSTEM
            MEASURED 58 MPH GUST.

&&

KGG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1011 AM EDT SAT APR 10 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 AM     TSTM WND GST     FSU PANAMA CITY CAMPUS  30.19N 85.72W
04/10/2021  M62 MPH          BAY                FL   PUBLIC

            FSU PANAMA CITY WEATHERSTEM MEASURED 62 MPH
            GUST.

&&

KGG