Dense Fog Advisory 13, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
124 AM EDT Thu Oct 7 2021

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Friday]

Lowering cigs into IFR and perhaps LIFR through the early morning
hours. Showers and thunderstorms will develop for our western
terminals at the beginning of this TAF period and head east
through the day. Also this morning, a bank of fog will likely move
in from the east to affect our Eastern Big Bend and Georgia areas
early this morning until after daybreak.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [829 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

Heavy rainfall occurred once again this morning in coastal sections
of the western FL panhandle east to Wakulla county with some multi
day radar indicated rain totals over 10 inches. The flash flood
watch in effect has been extended through Thursday morning. Short
term models indicate another round of heavy rainfall could occur
overnight into Thursday morning in our highly vulnerable areas in
the FL panhandle and it won't take much for these areas to flood
once again. Especially in Walton/Bay counties eastward to the
Apalachicola River. The good news is the area of heavy rainfall
from this morning is moving east with drying expected in the
afternoon hours (minus isolated pop up convection into the early
evening hours).

Although rain is expected into the afternoon hours Thursday, it
appears once we get past the morning convection rainfall amounts
appear not as heavy and coverage should be more isolated in nature.

Aside from the convection, a foggy start to the morning is likely in
our GA/AL counties and FL counties east of the Apalachicola River
which will last through mid morning.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]...

Short term period will be a gradual transition to drier conditions
as the cutoff low moves further away and a weak front pushes
through the area. Scattered to widespread rainfall will still be
possible on Friday, but the area of greater coverage should shift
to the eastern portions of the area.

High temperatures are forecast in the mid 80s Friday with low
temperatures cooling a few degrees into the mid to upper 60s
behind the weak front Friday night.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The long term period should be mostly dry and pleasant as surface
high pressure settles over the SE CONUS. Light easterly flow
returns by the end of the weekend with a very gradual moisture
return in place. A few isolated showers and storms will be
possible over the far eastern zones each afternoon.

High temperatures are forecast in the mid 80s each afternoon with
low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s each night.

.MARINE...

Thunderstorms with briefly higher winds to 34 knots and waterspouts
are possible this afternoon Otherwise, southeasterly winds of
around 10 to 15 knots continue through tonight, diminishing to 5
to 10 knots on Thursday and Friday, with seas at or below 2 feet.
A backdoor front will traverse the waters Friday Night into
Saturday, leading to fresher northeast winds of 10 to around 15
knots, which will remain elevated through the weekend. In turn,
wave heights will increase to around 2 to possibly 4 feet,
especially the waters west of the Ochlocknee River.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Low dispersions are expected over the next couple of days
due to light transport winds. Wet conditions will continue
through Friday, and no fire weather concerns are expected.

.HYDROLOGY...

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the FL Panhandle, SE
Alabama and portions of the FL Big Bend through Thursday morning.
Several rounds of heavy rainfall have already fallen over the
past couple of days, with the hardest hit areas receiving nearly 8
to 10 inches. Another round of heavy rainfall will be possible
overnight into Thursday morning, with the area of greatest concern
across the FL Panhandle.

Rises are being observed on area rivers due to several days of
heavy rainfall. The Sopchoppy River at Sopchoppy is forecast to
crest in moderate flood stage Thursday before falling back below
flood stage Friday. The Apalachicola River at Blountstown will
likely rise into minor flood stage Thursday as releases from
Woodruff Dam increase. We'll continue to keep an eye on the
flashier basins near the coast with additional rainfall expected
overnight. Otherwise, despite the recent rainfall the rest of the
area rivers appear to be remaining in or below action stage.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   84  71  86  67  86 /  50  40  60  10  10
Panama City   82  72  85  68  85 /  60  50  30  10  10
Dothan        80  69  85  65  85 /  50  30  20   0  10
Albany        82  70  85  66  85 /  60  50  40   0  10
Valdosta      85  71  84  66  85 /  60  40  70  20  10
Cross City    86  72  87  69  86 /  50  40  80  40  20
Apalachicola  81  74  83  69  84 /  60  50  50  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-
     North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

GA...None.
AL...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM...Merrifield
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield