Alert archive / Mississippi / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 569

December 29, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 29, 2021, 12:05 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 29, 2021, 12:05 PM CST (18:05 UTC)
Expired
Dec 29, 2021, 7:00 PM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 70 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Ashley County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Phillips County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Union County, AR, Claiborne Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Alcorn County, MS, Attala County, MS, Benton County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Clay County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lee County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Panola County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Union County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS, Fayette County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Hardin County, TN, McNairy County, TN, Shelby County, TN

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 160 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
70%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
50%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
40%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

15 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 29, 1:33 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVColumbia, Union42 min
Dec 29, 1:38 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun, Ouachita52 min
Dec 29, 2:13 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBradley, Drew47 min
Dec 29, 2:46 PM CSTTornado WarningLZKArkansas, Desha, Drew, Lincoln15 min
Dec 29, 2:59 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKDesha, Drew46 min
Dec 29, 3:39 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANBolivar, Sunflower48 min
Dec 29, 4:25 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANGrenada, Montgomery, Webster50 min
Dec 29, 4:53 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAshley33 min
Dec 29, 4:53 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatMEGCalhoun, Chickasaw, Itawamba, Lee, Monroe, Pontotoc52 min
Dec 29, 4:55 PM CSTTornado WarningJANClay, Webster42 min
Dec 29, 4:58 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatMEGPrentiss, Tishomingo14 min
Dec 29, 5:06 PM CSTTornado WarningMEGCalhoun, Chickasaw39 min
Dec 29, 5:29 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threatMEGChickasaw, Itawamba, Monroe46 min
Dec 29, 5:50 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANClay, Lowndes40 min
Dec 29, 5:53 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEGMonroe37 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 6.1 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2021-12-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2021-12-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 131 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1900 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
68 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
131 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
106 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

027 
WWUS20 KWNS 291802
SEL9  
SPC WW 291802
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-300100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 569
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CST Wed Dec 29 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Arkansas
  Northeast Louisiana
  Northern Mississippi
  Southwest Tennessee

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM
  until 700 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify early this
afternoon over parts of southeast Arkansas and northeast Louisiana,
and track rapidly eastward across the watch area.  Damaging winds
and a few tornadoes, along with some hail will be possible in these
areas.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 15 miles southwest of El Dorado AR to
40 miles east northeast of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 29, 9:25 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia and 14 more2 hr
Dec 29, 10:44 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Chicot, Crittenden, Desha, Drew and 5 more2 hr
Dec 29, 1:18 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDesha, Phillips87 min
Dec 29, 3:41 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAshley, Chicot, Desha, Drew64 min
Dec 29, 4:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Columbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Miller, Nevada and 1 more2 hr
Dec 29, 2:49 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWashington86 min
Dec 29, 2:03 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Claiborne, Copiah, Covington, Franklin, Hinds and 18 more87 min
Dec 29, 4:38 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Chickasaw, Clay, Itawamba, Lee, Lowndes and 6 more2 hr
Dec 29, 2:36 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFranklin, Giles, Lawrence, Lincoln, Marion, Marshall and 2 more2 hr
Dec 29, 3:53 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCFranklin, Giles, Lawrence, Lincoln, Marion, Moore and 1 more6 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2021Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2021Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.