Alert archive / North Carolina / Tornado Watches in 2021

Tornado Watch 42

March 18, 202126 counties in North Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 18, 2021, 4:45 PM EDT for 26 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 18, 2021, 4:45 PM EDT (20:45 UTC)
Expired
Mar 18, 2021, 8:53 PM EDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1.5 in
Strongest gust expected
55 kt
All 26 counties

Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 25 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
50%

Warnings issued inside it

17 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 18, 4:54 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHGuilford, Randolph66 min
Mar 18, 5:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHHalifax23 min
Mar 18, 5:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAlamance, Chatham, Davidson, Guilford, Randolph62 min
Mar 18, 5:34 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHAlamance, Guilford26 min
Mar 18, 5:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHMontgomery, Randolph, Stanly38 min
Mar 18, 5:58 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHAlamance, Durham, Orange, Person62 min
Mar 18, 6:07 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAnson, Richmond38 min
Mar 18, 6:09 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAlamance, Orange66 min
Mar 18, 6:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHMontgomery, Moore, Randolph, Stanly47 min
Mar 18, 6:39 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHDurham, Orange34 min
Mar 18, 6:41 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHGranville34 min
Mar 18, 6:45 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAnson, Hoke, Montgomery, Moore, Richmond45 min
Mar 18, 6:57 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHGranville48 min
Mar 18, 6:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHAlamance, Chatham, Orange, Randolph21 min
Mar 18, 7:11 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHHalifax, Vance, Warren54 min
Mar 18, 7:25 PM EDTTornado WarningRAHFranklin, Vance, Warren47 min
Mar 18, 7:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRAHCumberland, Harnett, Hoke, Lee, Moore45 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 111 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2021-03-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 12:00Z on 2021-03-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 470 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
486 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
67 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
470 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
562 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

201 
WWUS20 KWNS 182042
SEL2  
SPC WW 182042
NCZ000-190100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 42
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
445 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central North Carolina

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to locally severe thunderstorms should
spread northeast across the central North Carolina Piedmont region
through early evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Raleigh NC
to 30 miles south southwest of Southern Pines NC. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 40...WW 41...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 23040.

...Grams

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 18, 10:34 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCabarrus, Cleveland, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Rowan and 1 more2 hr
Mar 18, 2:08 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCCabarrus, Cleveland, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Union4 hr
Mar 18, 3:10 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCabarrus, Cleveland, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Rutherford and 2 more3 hr
Mar 18, 5:09 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Hertford and 3 more6 hr
Mar 18, 5:57 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Beaufort, Bertie, Cabarrus, Camden and 45 more63 min
Mar 18, 7:49 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Anson, Chatham, Cumberland, Durham, Edgecombe and 21 more56 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in North Carolina, 2021Every tornado watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.