Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 549

November 13, 20214 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Nov 13, 2021, 12:27 PM EST for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Nov 13, 2021, 12:27 PM EST (17:27 UTC)
Expired
Nov 13, 2021, 6:34 PM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
65 kt
All 34 counties

Capitol Planning Region, CT, Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, CT, Northeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region, CT, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Bristol County, RI, Kent County, RI, Newport County, RI, Providence County, RI, Washington County, RI

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
30%
Ten or more severe hail reports
20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

23 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 13, 1:02 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXPassaic47 min
Nov 13, 1:15 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMercer, Middlesex, Somerset13 min
Nov 13, 1:26 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXBergen49 min
Nov 13, 1:48 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXBergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic, Union42 min
Nov 13, 1:51 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMiddlesex9 min
Nov 13, 2:04 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMonmouth, Ocean41 min
Nov 13, 2:09 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningALYNorthwest Hills Planning Region51 min
Nov 13, 2:22 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXKings, Nassau, Queens38 min
Nov 13, 2:53 PM ESTTornado WarningOKXNassau, Suffolk37 min
Nov 13, 3:20 PM ESTTornado WarningOKXSuffolk25 min
Nov 13, 3:40 PM ESTTornado WarningOKXSuffolk24 min
Nov 13, 3:57 PM ESTTornado WarningOKXSuffolk18 min
Nov 13, 4:07 PM ESTTornado WarningOKXSuffolk23 min
Nov 13, 4:09 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXCapitol Planning Region15 min
Nov 13, 4:18 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXSuffolk27 min
Nov 13, 4:30 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXSuffolk30 min
Nov 13, 5:01 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXNortheastern Connecticut Planning Region26 min
Nov 13, 5:02 PM ESTTornado WarningBOXNortheastern Connecticut Planning Region28 min
Nov 13, 5:08 PM ESTTornado WarningBOXBristol, Kent, Providence, Washington24 min
Nov 13, 5:12 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXBristol, Kent, Newport, Providence, Washington44 min
Nov 13, 5:17 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXProvidence7 min
Nov 13, 5:21 PM ESTTornado WarningBOXProvidence24 min
Nov 13, 5:26 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOXProvidence32 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 50 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-11-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2021-11-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 14 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1435 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
82 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
34 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

105 
WWUS20 KWNS 131724
SEL9  
SPC WW 131724
CTZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-RIZ000-CWZ000-140000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 549
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM EST Sat Nov 13 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Connecticut
  Northern New Jersey
  Southeast New York
  Rhode Island
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM
  until 700 PM EST.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
    to 75 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...An intensifying line of thunderstorms over northern New
Jersey will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon,
posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of Newark NJ to 25 miles southeast of Providence RI. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector
26035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 13, 12:07 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPC113 min
Nov 13, 2:06 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPC84 min
Nov 13, 4:09 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarnstable, Bristol, Dukes, Norfolk, Plymouth, Suffolk2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Jersey, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Connecticut, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.