Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 529
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Oct 16, 2021, 12:35 PM EDT for 21 counties in New York; 6 counties in Pennsylvania; 11 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 16, 2021, 12:35 PM EDT (16:35 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 16, 2021, 7:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 38 counties
Albany County, NY, Clinton County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Lackawanna County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Pike County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orange County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 10%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 5%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 60%
Warnings issued inside it
7 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 1:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Fulton, Hamilton, Herkimer | 52 min |
| Oct 16, 1:32 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BTV | Clinton, Essex, Franklin | 43 min |
| Oct 16, 1:48 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Saratoga, Warren | 42 min |
| Oct 16, 2:21 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BTV | Clinton | 39 min |
| Oct 16, 2:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BTV | Clinton, Essex | 65 min |
| Oct 16, 2:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BTV | Chittenden, Franklin, Grand Isle, Lamoille, Orleans | 65 min |
| Oct 16, 3:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | ALY | Greene, Ulster | 64 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 4.6 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 50 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -197 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 735 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 279 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 291 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.4
The text
As transmitted.
072
WWUS20 KWNS 161631
SEL9
SPC WW 161631
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-VTZ000-162300-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM EDT Sat Oct 16 2021
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Far western Connecticut
Far western Massachusetts
Eastern New York
Northeast Pennsylvania
Vermont
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM
until 700 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A thin, low-topped convective line should intensify as it
spreads east across eastern New York into western New England, as
well as possibly across northeast Pennsylvania. A brief tornado
threat is anticipated across parts of the Champlain and Upper Hudson
Valleys.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest
of Burlington VT to 30 miles south southwest of Monticello NY. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector
24045.
...GramsSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 11:06 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broome, Chenango, Cortland, Delaware, Madison, Otsego and 2 more | 114 min |
| Oct 16, 12:09 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Clinton, Essex, Fulton, Hamilton, Montgomery and 6 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 16, 2:55 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Columbia, Delaware, Dutchess, Greene, Rensselaer and 7 more | 95 min |
| Oct 16, 5:39 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Nassau, Suffolk | 2 hr |
| Oct 16, 1:50 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Berks, Bucks, Carbon, Chester, Delaware, Lancaster and 4 more | 115 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Vermont, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.